Author: |Posted: 12:41 pm on 16/11/09
Category: Gary Gibbon on Politics
We are three days shy of the special summit to choose a President and Foreign Policy High Rep and yet Tony Blair is still in the contest.
Does that mean he is in with a serious chance? Is there a big player still pushing for him? I hear not.
The Prime Minister had been minded to hold on to the Blair candidacy and take it all the way to the EU special summit in Brussels in the hope that it might just work and even if it didn’t he would look like he tried… but that plan is now being reconsidered. read more
Author: |Posted: 5:35 pm on 04/11/09
Category: Gary Gibbon on Politics
Just back from David Cameron’s press conference unveiling plan B on Europe post the Czech’s ratifying Lisbon.
It all sounds to me like a downgrading and diluting of existing policy on Europe with a bit of chaff thrown up for the Euro-sceptics (namely, a Sovereignty Act which, we are told, establishes the supremacy of UK law over EU law – m’learned friends say it’s probably a bit more difficult than that).
David Cameron says it is “realistic, reasonable and do-able.” It’ll still scare some in Whitehall who’ve watched with mounting horror the Tories’ European agenda, but they’ll sleep better tonight than before.
As for the referendum, David Cameron is now saying there will be no referendum on anything European in the next Parliament. He will be too busy with other priorities and a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty would be pointless.
You get the impression he watched overnight to see the range and calibre of voices raised in opposition to his dropping of the Lisbon referendum and felt he could slap them down strongly today – he calls a post-ratification referendum on Lisbon a “phoney,” money-wasting idea.
Some in Brussels and other European capitals will be sleeping better tonight as well. David Cameron still wants to repatriate some powers but says he is not looking for a “bust up.”
Today Tory policy changed emphasis.
The party has been through a great journey in opposition, from stopping European integration the emphasis moved to making a grab back from Brussels of already devolved powers.
The key phrase in David Cameron’s speech today was “never again.”
The party emphasis has not returned to stopping moves towards closer union not unpicking what has passed. There is still some of the latter in the mix – a push to repatriate powers that will take a very long time to get anywhere.
But the emphasis has changed. This is David Cameron signalling to Whitehall, Brussels, his party and voters that he is not a fanatic on Euro issues.
Author: |Posted: 9:50 am on 03/11/09
Category: Gary Gibbon on Politics
The Czech court just decided that the Lisbon Treaty is in line with Czech law. A signature from the Czechs on the Lisbon Treaty is now expected “very soon.”
The Czech government gave assurances to EU partners at Brussels last week that there would be no more delay.
A Conservative announcement of a change in policy is now expected very soon too. The Daily Telegraph parked its tanks on David Cameron’s lawn this morning in a pre-emptive strike.
It does not like the fact that there will be no retrospective referendum on Europe. Mr Cameron thinks his new policy has enough Euro scepticism in it to avoid the threatened exodus to UKIP.
If he won the general election, he would launch an attempt in Europe to get powers repatriated to the UK – a mighty task given treaty-fatigue in the EU.
Perhaps more important though, in the great scheme of things, is the policy already announced in October 2007 but likely to be re-announced in the coming hours or days: the plan to make the UK, like Ireland and some other EU countries, a state that can only ratify an EU treaty after a referendum.
It’s hard to imagine how any treaty in the last 20 years would’ve got through a referendum in the UK. Could even a treaty that repatriated powers be sure of support in a referendum?
Irish referenda show how these popular votes can become hijacked by all sorts of unexpected or unrelated issues.
The move in Tory policy to a “compulsory referendum before ratification” country was unveiled at the 2007 Conference by William Hague but many eyes were elsewhere on the day – on the possible early election that hadn’t been ruled out.
A lot of the newspapers made it an inside page story…it doesn’t feel like an inside page story now.
As for the post-Lisbon process, EU governments expect a special one-off EU summit to be held in Brussels on Thursday 12th November, at which the member states will carve up the jobs of President, Lord High Executioner for Foreign Affairs and the EU Commission.
Tony Blair is expected to talk to Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy this week to see if there’s life in his candidacy for the presidency.
If it fails, few around Westminster believe that David Miliband can really have dismissed the High Rep job out of hand. He may yet have a long night with close friends talking it through.
Author: |Posted: 1:20 pm on 27/10/09
Category: Gary Gibbon on Politics
I wouldn’t start from here.
That was David Cameron’s first line of defence over the EU president position at his press conference just finished.
His second line: I really don’t want Tony Blair.
He’d be high profile, big impact (”Too good at the job?” Sky’s Adam Boulton asked), so, bizarrely perhaps, the Tory position read more
Author: |Posted: 11:44 am on 27/10/09
Category: Snowblog
So McDonald’s has pulled out of Iceland.
The ultimate economic indicator of ruin is struck, with the closure of three fast food outlets on the island and an indication from the multinational that they don’t expect to return.
Iceland hopes to make good by swallowing something even more indigestible than a reindeer burger – membership of the EU. And it is not the presidency of the European Union that excites them, but the prospect that the island with a ‘c’ in its name can mimic the economic rescue the EU has extended to the member island with an ‘r’ in its name – Ireland.
Speaking of the presidency, I’m told by my Parisian informant that France continues to “decelerate” rapidly on backing Tony Blair for the job. But the problem remains “if not Tony, who?”
Author: |Posted: 11:41 am on 21/10/09
Category: Snowblog
Wow… that lit the blue touch paper! Or was it red? What on earth has Tony Blair done to ignite such bile? The party he led was handsomely re-elected in a campaign he led, he did not shy away from the issues, the country reportedly expressed confidence in him. How can the worm turn so fast? read more
Author: |Posted: 5:50 pm on 19/10/09
Category: Snowblog
The presidency of Europe is slipping rapidly from Tony Blair’s hands.
My sources in Brussels and elsewhere report a rapid sea change in the former prime minister’s fortunes as ratification of the Lisbon treaty creeps closer (the Czech president could reluctantly sign it within a week).
Those sources tell me that Blair’s candidacy has been hit heavily by the opening of the Iraq inquiry. read more
Author: |Posted: 2:53 pm on 21/07/09
Category: Gary Gibbon on Politics
The Iraq Inquiry looks like being unveiled soon – maybe next week. Folk close to it are talking about mountains of evidence.
Word is that the inquiry may have decided against those saying “get a lawyer.” The Hutton Inquiry used a barrister, James Dingemans QC, to question witnesses in the first round of evidence sessions.
The Iraq Inquiry is not going down this route. The timetable is already being stretched by the broad remit and the amount of material under consideration… the inquiry team doesn’t want it stretched any more by filling the room with lawyers.
The inquiry team has also been beefed up. In addition to the academics on the panel there will now be military and international aid experts.
Tony Blair, who was not keen on a public evidence session, might end up being the last witness called. It means Tony Blair’s day(s) in the hot seat could come after the EU selects its President, always assuming a “yes” in the second Irish referendum and assuming the Czechs sign up.
So – lots of “ifs” here – Tony Blair could avoid the embarrassment of being grilled by the Iraq Inquiry as he campaigns for the top EU job only to suffer the embarrassment of being summoned for cross-examination while in post.
Author: |Posted: 3:07 pm on 16/04/09
Category: World News Blog
BOULOGNE, FRANCE – I’m sitting surveying the docks in Boulogne-sur-Mer – which, I’m told, is France’s premier fishing port. Not for much longer.
Fishermen from Boulogne, Calais and Dunkirk have, after two days of blockades - which disrupted ferry traffic across the channel – thrown in the towel in the face of threatened fines which none of them, frankly, could afford to pay. So the stoppages are over.
And so, sadly, is the local fishing industry. read more
Author: |Posted: 9:27 am on 17/03/09
Category: Snowblog
The EU President Jose Manuel Barroso is a boundless optimist.
Most of our intersection yesterday was satisfactorily off the record. I say “satisfactorily” because, of course, you learn far more, and can eventually drip-feed what you learn subtly into succeeding perspectives as the months go by.
But what I did learn whilst I was at the EC’s headquarters here in London was that they fear that the next European elections will throw up many more politicians from the political extremes.
