Recession messages from Italy remind me of home
This comes to you from the Pontignano conference which brings together British and Italian politicians, business, media, and the rest to debate the issues of the day.
We are gathered in the amazing British Embassy residence – a positively palace like establishment with palm strewn lawns, a first century aqua duct, English roses, a butler, staff, large cars and the rest. Recession, what recession?
No wonder the UK chair of the event, Chris Patten, expresses the hope that the Treasury will not exercise its sharpening scythe on this glorious remnant of Imperial times.
The theme this weekend is “After the Crash”, but a remarkable survey of young Italian and British opinion (under thirties) reveals that they think that even that title is wrong, they think we are “passing through” the crash right now.
I suspect they are right. It’s a point stressed by former Italian premier Giuliano Amato stresses in his opening remarks.
This survey of young people also reveals a strong faith in the EU. Fifty per cent of young Italians and 58 per cent of young Brits believe that the Union will make a positive impact to their chances of coming through the crash.
The Economist Intelligence Unit has fascinating data here too. Two very similar countries: Italy’s 58m people to the UK’s 61m. Italians are individually slightly better off, unemployment similar.
But Italy is aging very fast. A third of the population is over 60; in the UK it is one fifth. Both countries have seen a massive increase in public spending. Italy’s budget deficit is 8 per cent of GDP; the UK’s is 14 per cent. Youth unemployment in Italy is 22 per cent; Britain is at 15 per cent.
Just back to that poll of young people. Sixty seven per cent of young Italians believe the worst is yet to come, 25 per cent of Italians blame the government, compared to 26 per cent of Brits. Fifty four per cent of young Italians blame the banks; 54 per cent of young Brits.
In terms of survival, young Brits in general are far more optimistic than their Italian Counterparts. They believe Europe as a bloc will do better in the economic storm than their own nation state.
Amazing candor from Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti: “We still have no idea what to do next about debt repayment, extending more credit and the rest.”
This is the backdrop to a fascinating debate between to relative equals. I shall keep you posted.
Related posts:
- Do ties show we're up to our necks in it?
- It's official – we're in recession
- Greenspan's right – this recession is pants
- Expenses, recession, war will dominate the election
- Exsanguating? Well, don't try it at home
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Looking at stats i.e. unemployment relative to population there is very little apparent difference between ITALY and UK. Looking ahead the Italians may be right about the worst to come when potential human resource is brought into the equation. Such a large proportion of ageing Italians to total population looks like a slow recovery if the manpower in years to come remains the same.
Perhaps the young UK generation should be encouraged to learn Italian and work there to balance out the disparity.