Climate change: things can only get hotter
One of my colleagues in London attended a Met Office climate change briefing today at the Houses of Parliament, given by their top global warming specialist, Vicky Pope, ahead of December’s Copenhagen summit on climate change.
This is his summary of what was said: “It was very much about the science rather than the diplomacy. It was an attempt to give the official state of the science, as a context for Copenhagen.
“The press were mainly interested in her response to the leaked emails at the climate research unit of UEA – providers of one of the three “data streams” whose research goes into the IPCC work.”
Unsurprisingly she was bullish, saying the emails make no difference to the science which is massively peer reviewed, and that the other two “data streams” (Nasa and the National Climatic Data Center) both say the same things as the UEA.
It’s just another example of sceptics going to extraordinary lengths to “discredit the global warming signal”.
“Anyway, this is what she said: the last 10 years have all been in the top 15 hottest years ever. There has been a steady increase in global annual temperatures since the mid 19th century.
There’s no doubt about the world getting warmer. Man-made gases are the only explanation for this because they’ve done modelling that takes into account all the other things the sceptics go on about – solar activity, volcanic eruptions etc – and they don’t get this increase at all.
The official global position is from the IPCC who say it is “very likely” – meaning a more than 90 per cent chance – that global warming is man-made.
“They’ve done a new decade prediction. They say it’s the most accurate prediction yet, taking into account oceanic temperatures etc.
βThis shows, they predict, that half the years between 2010 and 2019 will be hotter than 1998 – the hottest year ever.
“This year, incidentally, will be probably the fifth hottest year of all time – totally contrary to the sceptics’ obsession about how it’s been very wet. Figures showing this will come out on around the 15th December, i.e. week two of Copenhagen.
“Next year is expected to be even hotter – in fact there’s a 50 per ceny chance it’ll be hotter than 1998. This is because of El Nino (developing now).
“It’s true, as the sceptics say, that recent years have been a bit cooler. 2006 and 2007 were cool because of La Nina. But even so, they were within the range of the underlying trend, which is much much hotter.
For example, last winter was very cold – but in the era of Dickens we’d have had a winter as cold as that every five years. Now, it’s every 20 years. Overall, we are now 0.7 degrees warmer than when the industrial revolution began.
“They have done a world map which shows the impact of a four degree rise in temperatures. Needless to say it’s full of grim predictions.
“It will be published in full soon. One of the interesting things is that the temperature variations are so huge. In the Arctic a global rise of four degrees actually means a rise of 16 degrees.”
Apparently that’s to do with less ice reflecting back sunlight. It seems that lots of the Siberian permafrost might melt, with vast releases of methane, which some say might cause a “runaway” effect.
As far as Brazil is concerned, the main impact would be a massive loss of rainforest due to big reductions in rainfall.
“Emissions are currently rising two to three degrees annually. If nothing’s done to curb them, there may be a rise even as high as seven degrees over the next century.
“If emissions peak in 2016 and then fall at four degrees a year – vastly more than has ever been achieved – temperatures would probably stabilise at or just below a two degree rise.
Even on most optimistic modelling, the only way to guarantee staying below a two degree rise is, at some point this century, emissions not only ending but carbon starting to be removed from the air.”
Related posts:
- Subs that collide in the night
- They talk of radical change. But will it happen?
- Our love of hierarchy means little will change
There are no comments on this post
There really isnt much to say on this one. Opinions can be saught on how global warming is affecting climate change and how to deal with it,but unfortunately the damage continues.
We are historically in an interglacial period and this change was predicted. The point is that scientific data and scientific opinion describes the processes they analyse.
Mostpeople are not sceptics, because we can see with our own eyes ( with the help of the media) events like glacial melt down.
The point is human intervention into a prophecied occurrence is excaserbating problems accelerating natural rhythms, which need to be dealt with.
A sound contextual argument hopefully will persuade nations to act.
M B-J: You’re attitude’s right, but you say “most people are not sceptics”.YES, WE ARE. We’re beyond scepticism. Cynicicism ‘s a bed-warmer for the rest-of-us.
Have you ever seen(either)of the The Time Machine films? You sit there thinking “it’ll never be that bleak”, but you know, deep in your guts, it’s already that bleak…
Let’s all munch our popcorn, and pretend we’ve got a future…
Hi Margaret,
Your second para begins..
‘We are historically in an interglacial period and this change was predicted.’
Where’s your evidence? Who predicted?
Second para. you state.
‘Most people are not sceptics …..because we can see with our own eyes’
Where’s your evidence? Who did you interview? Are your sources reliable or perhaps freakes and fantasists?
Where are your answers? Where’s your rational.
It’s all rubbish Margaret.
You are not open to another view ..if you were.you would question more…
and as for your narrative..
‘The point is human intervention into a prophecied occurrence is excaserbating problems accelerating natural rhythms, which need to be dealt with.’
What are you talking about! You cannot string a few words and phrases together and call it good expessive English.
You are not alone in talking garbage within the blogisphere.
I reckon you are drawn from an apparently well educated class with establishment values that have rendered you incapable of free thought.
You photocopy, scan and repeat the thoughts of others.
Can you do better Margaret? I doubt it.
Peter
Very interesting information. So, the scientists involved in these studies, are 90% sure that current global warming, is purely man-made. They rule out natural reasons for these temperature rises, due to their modelling. Scientists know an ocean of information but could there be a possibility of assumption there aswell? I know we are slowly killing our planet with highly toxic emissions and productions. Mass deforestaion means less oxygen, which means the balance tilts completely against us. We have to rely on what scientists, politicians and doctors tell us. I believe our options must be kept open by not completely ruling out a natural cycle.
adzmundo CND
The ‘fog’ of disputed climate change science merely ensures that no-one knows who to believe, especially if you ‘follow the money’ to uncover their various motives.
However, what is beyond doubt is that this planet has a finite capacity to support human life, especially in its more developed form and, if we continue breeding and surviving at the current rates, then that capacity will become increasingly evident through catastrophes of various types and places.
Time to encourage population control worldwide. And why don’t we immediately stop all work on human fertility issues – that’s just adding more fuel to the flames ? We need fewer, not more.
That is not fair, some have 10 others none. To ensure ethnic balance throughout the world and human diversity it is over production which needs to be curtailed with equal shares.
I have followed the global warming swindle for over 6 months now. I have always been interested in respecting our environment and implimenting clean energy sources. I did not see the need to question the science behind man-made global warming theory. However i felt fully justified in not trusting the motives of the politians who have promoted the global crisis with the aid of the main stream media.
I have watched a number of documentaries and interviews with highly accredited scientists who explain the reality of climate change on earth and every other planet in our solar system. It seems strange that pollution on earth could cause temperature changes on Mars, Saturn etc.
This issue needs to be addressed by everybody but the reality of today is that most people are apathetic, well trained drones and they really can’t be bothered.
Maybe you will wake up when its too late and the one world government enslaves you for ever. TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY
Whilst Jon is concerned about the levels of rainfall in the Amazon Basin( which are incidentally documented as 9 ft per year) are going to flood the rainforests out of existence, Julian Rush is concerned that the savannah grasslands in the North East will become desert due to lack of rainfall .Sarah is making sensible political observations about Lula’s attempt to get accepted by the United Nations and become a dominant world figure to fight his Country’s poverty.
Good teamwork C4.
It is very strange. There has never been global warming /cooling in the history of the planet before.That makes the current warming, if it is happening, man made. A bit like WMD, but instead of war , a large expense to the population. There has never been a miscarriage of justice in our courts , so lets blindly believe what our politicians and scientists want us to believe . Come back George Orwell, i feel another novel.
Global warming cooling has been a characteristic of the earths history for as long as scientists can record.
Perhaps if you look at earths geological history and research these facts you will begin to understand.
Have you heard of the Ice age mammoth.?
I only hope that your point was derived from sarcasm, for otherwise there would be a strong element of irony and satire.
If I can can halt the flooding of our planet, loss of lives, spread of disease and eventual wiping out of mankind
. Perhaps followed by freezing . but not necessarily in that order. I would. Dilution of salt water makes the land cooler due to the densilty of salt itself and that water freezes far more easily.
Now these are not new things . Children at schools learn them. 10 year olds!
These are the same scientists who can’t predict tomorrow’s weather with much certainty! I did not, however, hear any absolute statements from Ms Pope. She was very cagey as Met people always are.
I would like to ask her, however, what effect wind farms are having on the World’s climate? Are they causing more storms and floods? What does chaos theory say about them?
I went to school Peter and text books then did not quote others, they looked at physical evidence and those observations of the cyclical nature of our planet .. Evidence was far more objective
Why should you think that I want to compete? I observe and use words from a lexicon which has been used for years. I am not a competitive person. My time here is vital to me only. So where there is love and respect for that time I spend on earth I will use it , to make me feel happy. If you want to use your time being angry that is your choice.
I have been tending to the needs of others all my life. I have seen millions of souls suffering and in a vulnerable state of life. I have seen dismembered limbs , people screaming in agony. I have seen cuts and slashes on bodies and throats and unquantifiable amounts persecution.
These are the realities. Any race or individual who thinks that they can improve life on this planet by joining the violent are welcome to live their lives that way , as long as it does not affect the people who desire peace and love.
If you keep saying something often enough, eventually people will believe you. Except we don’t. It is the lengths the alarmists (mainstream media being very guilty) go to with their propaganda that is extraordinary; over and over, just banging away. Essentially it amounts to brainwashing. It becomes quite easy to see through, and the farce is laid bear.
The ‘scientific’ models being sold — on which this whole scare is based — are completely bogus.
Defending the ‘science’ (read: charlatanry and fraud) exposed by climategate by saying it is all peer reviewed — is a joke; that there is only a small clique of people involved in the process is one of the things the emails reveal!
If you want us to willingly go down a route of utter impoverishment, you are going to have to do better than this!
You may like to think of Pascals Wager in that case.
What I don’t get is WHY isn’t the media following up on the catastrophically revealing analysis of the emails and computer model code exposed from UEA which show just how appalling the quality of the data handling, analysis and basic scientific discipline that taken together amounts to a colossal fraud! The perpetrators of this should have their PhDs stripped from them and made to go back and learn how to do science PROPERLY.
However I am totally astonished that the mainstream media has pushed it all aside with a flippant debate about one passage in one email about “tricks” when the REALLY damming evidence of fraud is much more serious and troubling.
Journalism has been corrupted, just like science has; intellectual prostitutes!
The climate change scam is now “too big to fail”. All of the western main stream media are well and truly bought in to pushing the propaganda. Look at Russia Today – they are laughing at us.
I am disappointed with Channel 4 though. They too are trying to make light of this and sweep it under the carpet despite the frantic noise on the alternative news services. I previously gave them credit for some journalistic integrity. ANYONE who has read anything serious on the topic cannot fail to question the alleged “science”.
I do not need to be told what to think.
i was going to start off saying about this global warming / climate change arguement is,,,,,,then realised that to have an arguement both sides need to be heard which is far from the case, the total suppression of sceptics having their say is suspicious in itself despite of the overwhelming evidence that it is a total farce, even as the “so called” experts reckon that 90% is man made [which it isnt] that comment in itself means it isnt cut & dried, despite of this schoolchildren are getting this “conditioned” into them like its fact which is brainwashing in any language, so i say to you believers of this global farce just take time to stop & think why you havent heard the other side to this arguement when it is most definately justified & relevant,also why is it being deliberately suppressed, after all we are supposed to be living in a democracy.
The other side of the argument is supressed – this Carbon Con is to keep u in fear – and get more money from u and rest . Two problems – investigative journalism is well nigh dead – except for safe topics -like MPs exs . or which crowd of crooks will be elected next time – like it makes any diffrence – also Public Apathy – and BTW – if you think you are living in a deomocracy you are badly mistaken . Can u name one country where the Govt. put the people first – govt of the people – For the people – Im afarid not.
Just another idea which science is thinking about :
Black oil in Brazil :. English Amine.
Future resource: Future Investment
C02 down in Brazil: Co2 down in England
Secural of jobs /B ; more jobs /E
Lifting from poverty B; Sustaining income E
The fact that the ipcc has been discredited,so all the rest of the “alarmists” are doing is scrambling to get the public to be scared of climate change.In fact watch The Great Global Warming Swindle.Research Dr.Tim Ball.
The fact is CO2 isn’t responsible for the killing coral reefs,they came into existence in the pre-cambrian period where CO2 levels were 40x times higher.Thermal expansion causes seas to rise and fall,not sea ice.And since 98 we’ve been cooling and they know it.They also know that the sunspots and solar wind have more to do with climate change than anything we little old (emmitters of CO2)humans could ever do.
‘From the Asian tsunami to Hurricane Katrina, a string of shocking natural disasters have brought home the potentially devastating realities of a world in which temperatures are rising.’
Channel 4 News ‘Climate change: believers and doubters’
When has human activity had any influence on a tsunami. Until the science world limits itself to fact and does not indulge the lobbyists with other ‘green’ agendas, there will be others so called sceptics who will continue to say the arguments do not stack up, either very well, if at all, or can simply be ridiculed as plain stupid as the above quoted comment.
Even the most ardent “denier” (like me) wants to stop de-forestation and pollution but climate is a very complex system and cannot be understood by a few statisticians (for that is all they are) in Norwich. The idea that a small increase in temperature over a few decades proves human cause is ludicrous when so many geograhic and astonomical factors influence climate. In any case, as their dodgy emails prove (which many other commentators have been saying for years and totally ignored by the BBC and Channel 4 etc), average temperatures have actually declined in the last decade.
The Met Office’s re-analysis of the last 160 years is irrelevant as temperature trends could have started hundreds or thousands of years ago. As for the Channel panel of 10 “scientists”, they are all climate researchers or envirnmentalists, so hardly impartial. The more the media and politicians try to prove their point the more they lose credibility.