So the US is out of recession. Unlike last Friday’s spectacular misprediction, the economists got this one right. In fact the markets shot up because the US’s 3rd quarter GDP figure showed 3.5 per cent growth (annualised).
So on an internationally comparable definition of recession (multiple consecutive quarters of contraction) the US has exited recession. It’s worth noting that within the US itself the NBER defines recessions in a different way, and is yet to pass judgement on this matter. What we can definitively say is that growth has returned to America, in a way that it hasn’t returned, for example, to Britain.
Breaking down the numbers there was some impressive growth in consumer spending and residential investment. Businesses seem to be successfully clearing out their inventories, which also added to growth. The question is whether businesses can lick themselves back into shape quick enough to offset the severe pressure on consumer spending that will arise from near 10 per cent unemployment – the worst set of figures for nearly three decades.
This also underlines the role of America’s massive stimulus programmes. I visited a few of them in August. One a newly-laid airport runway at a municipal airport in Elkhart, Indiana. Unashamed Keynesianism in the backyard of the University of Chicago. In Baltimore, land of The Wire, stimulus dollars paid for a new ferry taxi service across the bay where McNulty and Bunk can often be seen clueless and drunk. There is a remarkable map of US Keynesianism at Recovery.org.
So for those that crow that the US is out of recession and Britain is not. Well the logical next step in that argument is for Britain to have had a stimulus on the US scale. It is absolutely no coincidence that, as predicted here on Friday, George Osborne markedly piped down his rhetoric on cutting the deficit this year, during his speech on Monday.
Today’s figures from the US are an argument against too hasty a fiscal contraction, even given our admittedly parlous budget deficits.
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Like the UK, if there is even 500,000 people ‘Out Of Work’ and that includes those deliberately not counted on statistics produced as a result of application rule mannipulation, then as far as a recession goes, there is no end to it at all. Every citizen in society matters equally, not just the well off.
This recession will soon return. The corrupt scum are still at the helm of a unregulated financial banking system and milking fat-cat bonuses and salaries and, their cronies are their in governments just linning their paths for post political extractions.
The world is a mess of biblical proportions, as a result of Unrestrained Capitalism of the western governments and corruption & greed of the wealthy.
America recovered because it has sensibly maintained its industrial base over the years.
We haven’t recovered yet, because the stupid self-serving Governments that we’ve had over the last 30 years have completely destroyed our industrial base…
They’ve also privatised a lot of the public sector which has subsequently been sold to foreign owners……
Even the scrappage scheme has been a fiasco if you look at it closely, with a huge proportion of the taxpayers money going to foreign manufacturers…
No wonder the rest of the world is recovering and we’re not…
what is recovery?Official figures as to growth, that take no account of job losses ,unemployment ,industrial failure . there are lies ,damn lies and statistics.I reckon we are in the height of a recovery engineered by Gordon and approved by Peter. Utopia
If the american recession is over,is it because business is expanding again or is it because of the amount of government money pumped in.Also how much depends on the banks that caused the recession by their irresponsible lending.Time will tell
However fast America and the rest of the world recovers and moves out of recession,we will be slower.Our economy is no longer built on manufacturing or industry,but rather on a financial and service sectors.The lack of government control, the vast expenditure without control placed us in a very weak position when the downturn came.
There was undoubtably greed within the banking sector that now needs to be curbed,but to blame Capitalism as the cause is ludicrous.Socialism does not create proper jobs or high standards of living.You only have to look to Russia Chins Cuba for proof of that.
How can an economy grow when the country is BANK-rupt and Broke? Which America are you talking about ? America the corporation ? Or America the people of the land ? Why are the individuals responsible for the greatest Financial Terrorism brought to justice ? I think asking questions is a better way to stimulate critical thinking. People for example are using words in a debate that does not represent a common or solid defination. The reult is self evident. When these words are allowed to go unchallenged by the people using them. The users of these words continues to use them. After all it is wors that have been used to deceive and to mislead Us daily. If words were like numbers this deception could not happen because it is scientific. Last Question what is Politic ? What is its purpose?
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