Don’t be fooled by the environ/political herd mentality because “The Day After Tomorrow” scenario cuts both ways.
More than one thing is happening to this little planet because of humankind. Yes – it seems to be heating up because of carbon/methane emissions. But consider our old friend oil for a moment, beyond being a culprit in that story.
Because oil is running out. Forget the old canard of peak oil and when we reach it. It is cheap oil which matters. Cheap oil which sustains the vast bulk of the way we live, move, communicate, travel, work and above all – eat.
And cheap oil is going. Could already have gone. Just when the Chinese and Indian middle classes want little cars, not bikes. And meat, not noodles.
Yes the oil companies are trumpeting the new Gulf of Mexico finds – but what BP won’t tell you is how far below the surface that oil lies. It will make North Sea crude look like the black gold which oozed through the Kuwaiti desert sands just a few generations ago.
Even now in recessionary depths oil is at a 12 month high around $80 odd per barrel. It will go only one way from hereon in. It will pass 90 again, then 100 and so on. It will not be a blip. It will be life. And what price then your kiwi fruit in Safeway? Your EasyJet weekend in Prague? Your bunch of flowers plucked only yesterday in Kenya?
Well – they’ll all still be around, for a while, but will get increasingly expensive in a world which gets increasingly more local. Don’t believe me – ask people who really make it their business like, well, like Walmart for instance.
These people know the days of buying five shirts for your child’s school uniform for a few quid because they’ve been shipped in by bulk carrier (powered by cheap bunker fuel) are beginning to end. They are now looking at really old fashioned things like local textile mills in the USA, close to stores.
How cheap can they go? Well a hell of a lot cheaper than now but never as cheap as China. Cheap enough though to stay in the game when China has fallen off the market.
One example for you but so goes the world. And the lesson for Copenhagen? Well in a world of soaring demand but increasingly expensive base product, the end-user will pay at the pump, at the airline desk, at the shipping line.
And the implications for Copenhagen – there will be forces out there which will cut the output of oil burning emissions rather more quickly than governments are able to do. What needs to happen though is serious planning for this, rather than unrealistic and divisive whimsy about cutting carbon emissions by unreachable percentages.
And yes, you’ve got it. Much planning and hot air is being expended on the former theory – almost no serious governmental planning is being done on the latter, pressing reality.
The greener world will come because the length of a drilling bore from an oil rig and the craving for what comes out, just as much as the limited powers of politicians divided to pieces – as ever – by special interests, votes, sustaining power and the clash of values between waning western economies and emerging eastern ones.
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I genuinely hope that the price of oil goes up fast enough – an unpleasant but necessary pain – for it to have a beneficial impact on climate change but I have no idea if that will happen, that is why I suppose Copenhagen is necessary.
Oil is getting scarcer and will get dearer.Gas likewise.So where do we go?Total nuclear? Bring back coal? Do the greens believe renewable energy can replace the loss of oil.coal and gas.If so they probably believe the earth is flat.There does not appear to be any forward planning other than to say cut greenhouse gasses.No explanation of where all countries go when the current comodities run out or become too dear.
Perhaps it will be back to my dear gt gt g/fathers candles(clarkes fairy lights) and thick woollen blankets
A good alternative would be to start insisting all new houses are built to green standards on heating and insulation
To some extent it will stop the greed. How many people do we see going to the superstores for a weeks shop with piles of clothes that are never going to be worn more than twice. Piles of dirty washing , bakets of ironing.Electricity plus.
I come from an age where I had to handwash school uniforms and had one change only. My parents were of the opinion that only one suit could be worn at once. Meals were small and 3 / day and we walked a lot more. Meat was a luxury and a joint lasted for 3 days with the help of Mrs Beeton.We were more concerned with how to respect the food we had with immaculate table manners.
The only unhealthy thing was the smog. It was hard , but we didn’t think so at the time.
Interesting read on this spectre:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
As in my previous blogs, there are too many people & the exponetial growth is the main cuprit for the worlds problems. Any chance it’ll be reduced? NOT A CHANCE.
Debate on Climate change in the house today. The same old song continued ,. the preempted failure of the Copenhagen summit .
The argument again of preventing Countries like India growing using energy was highlighted .Quite rightly though, why should they be prevented in this respect,? surely there should be limitations , but other Countries scale down on their fuel consumption .
Over my house 10 years ago an occasional plane could be seen flying over. Now approximaetly one every 5 mins flies over.
Long haul flights to Pakistan and other developing Countries have increased manyfold with immigration ..
I cannot understand why aviation should be excluded from the problem in fuel consumption as it is clearly a major contributor in climate warming.
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