“David Cameron is the best thing we have left on this planet…the only hope left for a risk-conscious society,” was one of the more unexpected answers I got from Nassim Taleb.
I was interviewing the Black Swan author for a report we are doing next week. But as a teaser I put a series of questions from my Twitter followers.
The connection with Cameron has caused some controversy in the press. I know that Nouriel Roubini, the other thickly-accented predictor of economic doom, has met with Gordon Brown and the Treasury on the odd occasion.
It is highly intriguing that the Conservatives have allowed Taleb to be depicted as a Cameronite guru.
There is a strain of Tory thinking, which is probably close to the Austrian school of economics and Hayek, which is anti-debt, and comfortable with the cleansing powers of creative destruction, that are unleashed by a recession.
You can see glimpses of it in George Osborne’s musings on the need for smaller banks, suggesting that the state is supporting big banks too much.
The shadow chancellor has also been talking about making the transition from an economy built on excessive debt to one built on savings and investment.
This strain of Toryism is not entirely coherent with extreme deregulatory free marketeering, particularly in relation to the financial system.
But in his answers to your Twitter questions, Taleb seems totally in tune with this Tory philosophical balancing act.
On climate change, he got into some trouble with the press. I think this might be a case of his ideas being a little too complex than is digestible by our Fleet Street friends.
He is not a carbon junkie at all but he believes that it is irrelevant whether or not climate change is man-made or made by something else.
He is against depending on complex scientific-economic probability models as the basis upon which to decide whether to take action against climate change. He thinks we should take that action anyway.
Taleb also answers your questions on President Obama, and on banker bonuses “you can’t let bankers get away with this”.
Let us know what you think of his answers below, and we’ll start doing this more often.
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http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/janet-tavakoli-where-were-drama-pundits-whitney-taleb-and-gasparino-when-it-mattered/
Taleb has had disputes with media reports in the past, despite what he told Channel 4 today (linked above):
“In the spring of 2009, Taleb prominently posted a GQ article on his web site that (inaccurately) attributed $20 billion in gains to a strategy employed by a new fund that Taleb advises. I had contacted Taleb about the obvious (to me) error and written that the mistake was not Taleb’s. But silence may be interpreted as endorsement whatever the source of the original error. The error suggested his strategy had proven to be scalable (would apply to large investments), while the fund was attracting new investors. But there is actually no empirical evidence.
Taleb asserted the article was about philosophy, and one should ignore the numbers. The Times (among others) didn’t seem to see it that way. The Times’s original reference to GQ’s article focused on the erroneous $20 billion in trading gains months before Taleb made his correction in the face of media pressure.”
Intelligent questions and time allowed for considered answers – agree or disagree with the views, this is the way we ought to be having discussions and making decisions. More of this sort of thing please.
I think he is right: we need ring-fenced play pens where capitalism is left to let rip but where the adult-sized diapers required for the inevitable moments of ‘creative destruction’ are paid for by those capitalists, not the tax payer.
We also need sound money, saving and investing, and this social-driven (meeting various PC agendas etc.) credit-addicted economy has to come to an end. It is lethal and wasteful.
I actually think there is a nexus here between green and sustainability agendas and hard Austrian economics: they place a better restraint on resource allocation than the faecal-fingered Gordon Brown.
The more intelligent debate which doesn’t try to simplify the economic issues the better.I don’t know how prevalent the ’sound bite’ distilling of complexity was before Campbell, Mandleson and co but for me it’s associated with them.
Faisal,
A wee birdie tells me that all the NYSE share sales are FAKE !! The usual lies and fraud that come out of the now “Evil Empire” of America !! All these idiots here buying shares. Forget it, you are all goining to lose your confetti !!!
I advise Cluff Gold and Falklands Oil. America is in meltdown, don’t listen to them. They are finished !!! So is Britain, for it apes them !!! Beware, it is alljoooish lies !!! You will all be sorry.
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