So did they rig it and if so, how?
So far the evidence seems circumstantial and no-one I’ve spoken to has managed to provide hard proof.
A leading member of the Mousavi camp told me that in thousands of polling stations, agents for opposition monitors were told to leave before the ballot boxes were opened and the votes counted.
He was suspicious of new software used to tally the results. The speed with which nearly 40 million ballots were manually counted was remarkable – preliminary results saying Ahmadinejad had a commanding lead were announced on a state TV channel (bizarrely, the one which broadcasts to the Arabic speaking minority) at 11.30pm, when voting had only just finished in many places.
Other allegations include a shortage of ballot papers in opposition strongholds, vote buying and intimidation. It also seems strange that the overall result was published before the provincial tallies.
But even my source had to admit that concrete incidents where they could point to fraud were not enough to reverse the result of 24,527,516 votes (62.63 per cent) for Mr Ahamdinejad and 13,216,411 votes (33.75 percent) for Mir-Hossein Moussavi. The “partial recount” authorized by the Guardian Council is unlikely to change the overall result, because the difference was so big.
Some people have pointed to a poll carried out by an American organization to suggest that the opposition and an eager western media are the ones who have got it wrong.
The telephone poll of 1001 people in 30 provinces gave 34 per cent to Ahmadinejad, 14 per cent to Mousavi with 27 per cent undecided. But even that poll, which gave the incumbent a significant lead, pointed out that 60 per cent of undecideds said they wanted change or reform, and it was done between May 11 and 20th which is before the opposition “green” campaign really took off.
Other polls commissioned by the government, conducted nearer the election, reportedly gave Mousavi a commanding lead, but the results have been kept secret.
What is without doubt is that many Iranians feel that they have been cheated. The green campaign has been a huge phenomenom in this country, a great wave of enthusiasm for change that has carried millions in its tide. Although it is led by the middle class and the young, I do not believe it is confined to them.
The underlying problem is the opacity of the Iranian system. Secrecy is integral. The President is important, but the unelected Supreme Leader holds ultimate power, advised by councils of mullahs who meet behind the curtain.
Occasionally it’s drawn back for the Iranian public to have a look. The election campaign was like a burst of sunlight in a darkened room, and now people crave more.
The lack of transparency in all aspects of government makes conspiracy theories especially popular here. As my opposition source said: “This is all a grand game conducted by some people.”
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How about this miraculous disappearance of votes shown on State TV:
http://azarmehr.blogspot.com/2009/06/tangible-evidence-of-vote-rigging.html
Sounds like correspondents are getting soft again so that they can stay in Iran
Dear Lindsey, Iranians are sick and tired of having an unelected dictator who has the full power of the country, so make no mistake that this is the only way to show their anger and walk towards democracy.
Pepole might forget the fact that ahmadinejad or mousavi or others are from the body of this regim and they are only fighting for the power not democracy, because they all have very dark history such as killing so many young people when mr Mousavi was the prime minister for 8years, but people on the streets are seeking justice and freedom and democracy.
This appears to be a growing tide of dissatisfaction with the fundamentals of how iran is governed, Ahmediniejad, mousavi,are now becoming the visual focal points (along with the guardians) for radically different visions for this country
It is difficult for us in the UK to know what exactly is happening in Iran as all media can be manipulated to some extent. It may be the case that the situation reflects a power struggle in the Iranian elite or the genuine will of a large section of the population for change. Many of us here in the UK are disenchanted with our own elites and this maybe part of a much wider global historical shift in attitudes towards the governing classes.
Dear Ms Hilsum
You keep referring to circumstantial evidence. Well how on earth is one supposed to obtain “concret” evidence in this situation? The facts,from the start of the process to the finish speaks for itself. Most reasonable people agree there has been substantial cheating. Anyway cheating is cheating regardless of scale.
You also said in the radio interview yesterday that most of the opposition consists of “wealthy” Iranians. Please can you tell us how a taxi driver or a simple teacher can be described as “wealthy”? Also how can the millions on the streets of Tehran ALL be wealthy?
Please do try not to give misleading information as this does not help to get the facts out.
Thank you . Exactly right. There is a sense of subtle support for the regime here. Very sorry to see this especially at a time when innocent young people are getting killed just for the crime of asking for their basic human rights, something that Ms Hilsum takes for granted. It is easy for them to talk.
Why does the western media persist in refering to Mr Mousavi as the candidate. for “reform and democracy”He was not very reform or democratic minded when he was Prime Minister of iran
Way to go, Lindsey, keeping your eye on the ball, the most important fact in the case, the absence of evidence, from Mousavi:
Where is his list of polling stations, Mousavi, which allegedly ran out of ballots, closed with voters waiting, barred his observers. Where is his list of observers, testifying to this, their public statements. Where is his ballot-count, each of the 41,000(?) ballot boxes, his total, recorded by his observers. Mousavi has produced no such evidence (in public, at any rate).
The guardian council said it earlier, and AK the preacher said it on Friday (Ayatollah Khamenei), they said, the solution is ballot recount, any boxes Mousavi is suspicious about, his observers watching.
Mousavi says no, he wants a new election with (apparently) the very same dishonest ballot-counting system.
Obviously, the public, to get what they want (human rights, disband the militia, and such), they must now denounce Mousavi, for refusing to pursue a recount, and the public musts itself demand a 100% recount, by the people, live on TV, to reestablish trust in the system, or else uncover the mechanism, if the count was rigged. If the vote was rigged then the ensuing scandal will put an end to the human rights abuses at the same time as fixing the vote-count system.
So put it to them, Lindsey, what are they scared of, how can they expect the public to trust the system, now that Mousavi has trashed it, himself an insider for many years, prime minister.
Put up or shut up, Mousavi, that’s what the preacher said, and I say, “Amen.”
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