An enormous thunderstorm has blown up over Tehran tonight. Maybe tomorrow’s election results will bring another kind of tempest.
I’m cautious about opinion polling in Iran, but it’s clear that the opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi is at the very least a serious challenge to President Ahmadinejad, who seemed so secure just three weeks ago.
I had an interesting meeting today with one of Mr Mousavi’s main strategists, Sadegh Kharazi, and learnt a little more about how this campaign has come together.
First he suggested that many in Iran’s revolutionary establishment are fed up with Mr Ahmadinejad’s populist economic policies which have pleased those who get handouts, but created inflation of up to 25 per cent.
“Ahmadinejad wanted to play the role of Robin Hood, but at least Robin Hood had some principles!” said Mr Kharazi.
Behind Mr Mousavi’s campaign are two major figures – former President Khatami, a charismatic figure with popular appeal, and Hashemi Rafsanjani, who knows how to wield the levers of power in this complex system.
“Mr Khatami has a lot of influence amongst the people, while Mr Rafsanjani can influence the elite. People love and hate Mr Rafsanjani, but he is in a very strong position,” explained Mr Kharazi.
It’s important not to think that the young people who told me today they were voting for change are the whole story. If Mr Mousavi wins, certainly he will try – backed by his charismatic wife, Zahra Rahnavard – to curb the morality police, manage the economy better and improve relations with the west. But the reason powerful figures in the establishment support him is because they believe that he can reform the system, not overthrow it. We are not talking about regime change, but an attempt to preserve the Islamic Revolution by modernising it.
“The leaders have realised that the continuity and stability of the government, regime and political system depend on the ballot box,” said Mr Kharazi.
We watch and wait.
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[...] | 2:12 p.m. Lindsey Hilsum of Britain’s Channel 4 News, who is in Tehran, writes in her latest blog post that Mr. Moussavi’s campaign has indeed been helped by two former presidents: I had an [...]
It’s quite sad to compare the indifference in theUk to the political scene to the obvious and vibrant engagement in the political debate in Iran
This election result is a disgrace. As an Anglo-Iranian living in the UK I am appalled at the electoral process and particularly the Form 22 process which completely lacks any transparency. There can be no doubt that the government is petrified of the young uprising and spilling onto the streets en masse this evening, hence the heavy censorship today. I am very concerned about how events will play out later today once the result is broadcast officially.
As one who has lived through a lot of propaganda, not least the Blair Iraq media campaign with its 45minute WMD lies, I smell the same smell when it comes to reporting about Iran’s elections. Our media never seem to miss an opportunity to condition us to believe that Iran is a loonie 3rd World Mad Dog Banana Republic itching to nuke the rest of the world, and the current reporting of the elections seems to spin the same impression.
The US and British governments and media have often spun the news from the Middle East along lines which benefit Israel’s agenda of regional supremacy, please be doubly sure that C4 News is not now being dragged down the same mischievous road. Compare Israel’s offensive brutal bombardment of its neighbours with that of how Iran behaves internationally. Compare Israel’s massive nuclear weaponry with Iran’s. Compare Israel’s compliance with UN resolutions with Iran’s. Compare how Israel treats the Arabs within its borders with how well Iran treats its Jewish community in Iran.
I know we are not talking about UK, US or Israeli elections in your report today, we are talking about Iran, but before we start slagging off their democracy and general political policies we should look carefully at our own house and see how in order it is – not least in terms of numbers who bother even to vote here, let alone whether they vote for any particular political party. Iran is a civilised country and deserves some respect in how it determines its own future.
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