Ukip’s breakthrough night in Clacton

Former Conservative MP Douglas Carswell captures Ukip’s first parliamentary seat and marks an extraordinary breakthrough for Nigel Farage and his party.

“Ukip will never get an elected MP,” many experts were still insisting only a few months ago. What’s more, they said, Ukip could never break through what seemed to be a glass ceiling of about 30 per cent of the vote in any seat. Well, in Essex and Lancashire last night both theories were smashed to tiny pieces.

And now Mr Carswell, the newly elected Ukip MP for Clacton, looks like being the first of a cohort Ukip MPs elected either in by-elections over the coming months, or at the general election next May.

Mr Carswell’s success last night will go down as one of the great historic by-election results of all time. His 59.7 per cent share was well over double the Conservative vote, and more than double Ukip’s previous best in a parliamentary election – the 27.8 per cent which Diane James recorded in Eastleigh in February 2013.

Clacton: Ukip: 59.7%; Con: 24.6%; Lab: 11.2%; Green: 1.9%; Lib Dem: 1.3%

— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) October 10, 2014

And Clacton was no flash in the pan. Ukip also scored 39 per cent in the Heywood and Middleton by-election in Lancashire last night. The big question now is whether Mr Carswell’s success will encourage other Conservative eurosceptics to follow the path taken by him and Mark Reckless. Mr Carswell clearly had something of a personal vote in Clacton, and the demographic characteristics of the seat were highly favourable to a Ukip success.

On the other hand Mr Carswell wasn’t the most charismatic of campaigner – he’s no Farage mark II. But I suspect there will be no rush by Tory MPs (or any Labour MP – Ukip keeps hinting there are some possibles on the Labour benches).  Would-be defectors will want to see how Mr Reckless gets one when the by-election is held in Rochester and Strood, probably sometime next month.

Lib Dem lost deposit in Clacton with 1.3% of vote is their tenth lost deposit in 17 British by-elections in this Parliament — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) October 10, 2014

Ukip’s 12,404 majority in Clacton wasn’t actually the most surprising result of this parliament.  That honour belongs to George Galloway’s totally unexpected victory, as leader of Respect, in Bradford West in 2012, where he beat Labour with a whopping 10,140 majority. But the long-term significance of Clacton is huge. Ukip look like scoring heavily in the general election next May, maybe with a vote share in the teens, and the election of a small group of MPs.

After their victory in the European elections in May, and good results in local elections in 2013 and 2014, and their consistently high scores in the polls – roughly double the Lib Dem figures for many months now – Ukip have established themselves as the third party in British politics. Far more popular than the Liberal Democrats, and also more significant in the way they’ve been making the political weather these past two years.

In both by-elections tonight Ukip have far exceeded their previous best percentage in a Parly election – Diane James’s 27.8% in Eastleigh

— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) October 10, 2014

A small Ukip group at Westminster –  which is what Mr Farage is aiming for – might make coalition-building in 2015, or simply establishing a viable alternative government, a lot harder.

The YouGov pollster Peter Kellner wrote recently that the agreement to establish the next government may not just involve two parties (as in 2010), but maybe three or four parties, with possible roles for Ukip, the SNP, and the Democratic Unionists from Northern Ireland.

Read more: why isn’t Labour going for Rochester?

The two by-election results mean that Ukip has now come first or second in eight of the last nine English parliamentary by-elections, dating back to November 2012.

It was a miserable night for Labour.  The close result in Heywood and Middleton – beating Ukip by a nerve-wracking 617 votes in what was supposed to be a safe seat – coming after the strong yes performance in Labour heartlands in the Scottish referendum, will undermine party morale even further.

It wasn’t long ago many experts said Ukip would never get an elected MP, and they’d never break through glass ceiling of 30% of the vote

— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) October 10, 2014

Had they lost Heywood and Middleton – and a couple of weeks ago I forecast here that they might – then Ed Miliband would have been in huge jeopardy.

As it is the anti-Miliband muttering is likely to intensify over the next few days. But he will probably soldier on, albeit badly wounded, largely because there’s no obvious messiah figure who could suddenly transform Labour’s fortunes.

Read more: why isn’t Labour going for Rochester?

And Labour can console themselves that Ukip is still doing more harm to the Tories than to then. Indeed, Ukip ate severely into the Conservative vote in both constituencies last night, and Clacton saw the biggest fall in the Tory vote in any election for 20 years.

What’s more, polls suggest Labour is still outperforming the Conservatives in the all-important marginal seats.

Follow @MichaelLCrick on Twitter