Scotland sets Madrid and Barcelona on path to confrontation
There is one part of Europe where the Scottish independence vote is viewed with particular interest.
In Catalonia and its magnificent capital, Barcelona, millions of Catalans feel inspired by what they see as Scotland’s chance to break free from London.
Moreover, even if the no’s win in Scotland, the demands for independence are unlikely to simmer down in Catalonia.
Curiously enough, David Cameron, frequently vilified north of the border here as an English toff, is celebrated on the streets of Barcelona as a heroic liberator. His face grins out from posters at independence rallies.
That is because Cameron has done something for Scotland which successive Spanish prime ministers have refused to do for Catalonia: grant a legally binding referendum.
The independence vote which is planned in Catalonia for 9 November has been declared illegal by the supreme court in Madrid. If it goes ahead anyway and ends in a yes vote, the result will be a constitutional crisis that would put any of the tussles between London and Edinburgh into the shadow.
There are other reasons. Catalonia is both more powerful economically in relation to the rest of Spain (it accounts for 20 per cent of GDP and has 17 per cent of the population) than Scotland is to the UK.
It also feels and sounds culturally and instinctively more distinct. Catalan is a separate language, as close to French as it is to Spanish.
The support for independence is much higher than in Scotland. Roughly 60 per cent of Catalans, according to the most recent polls, want to break away from Madrid.
And while Scotland has to rummage deeper in its history for independence, Catalonia still recoils under the bitter memory of the Spanish civil war from the 1930s, where Barcelona and Catalonia became the bedrock of the anti-fascist republican movement. Franco was reviled by the Catalans as a Spanish import.
On every level the stakes are even higher for Spain than they are for the UK. Even if Scotland files for divorce, it is very unlikely that Wales or Northern Ireland will follow suit. The same cannot be said for the Basque country, long involved in a political and at times military struggle against Madrid. The far western province of Galicia might also feel restless.
As a historian friend of mine in Madrid put it the other day: “If Catalonia becomes independent, Spain itself is finished”. No wonder Madrid opposes the vote.
Moreover, it has botched the chance of a smooth transition to its version of “devo max”, maximum devolution. In 2010 the Catalan and Spanish parliaments both voted to approve greater Catalan autonomy. The vote was emotionally anointed by a series of unofficial referenda in Catalonia.
But then the Spanish supreme court, packed with conservative judges, struck it down and tossed it out. After that the move towards a fully fledged independence vote became virtually unstoppable.
Today is Catalan national day, and the size and noise of the planned demonstration in Barcelona will be a telling indicator of independence fever. Even if the supreme court does not lift its ban on the forthcoming referendum, the next Catalan assembly may well just declare unilateral independence.
For now Barcelona and Madrid are set on a path of confrontation because both inhabit parallel worlds: in Catalonia the spirit independence is as much a given as it is dismissed as a dangerous absurdity in much of the rest of Spain.
It opens up the potential for real confrontation. It makes the agonies and ecstasies over Scottish independence seem mild by comparison.
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