5 Jul 2012

Environment Agency warns of flood risk

A few days ago I wrote about why the risk of flash flooding remains this week as the weather continues on a very unsettled note. June has been the wettest on record in the UK, and July has certainly picked up where June left off.

Earlier this week it was quite challenging to pin down the locations most prone to seeing further intense rain – and, to an extent, it still is.

However the weather computer models are now giving a better indication of the places that could be hardest hit now that we are less than 24 hours away from the rain arriving.

During the past month, flooding has occurred frequently, caused by rivers bursting their banks as well as surface water flooding.

The problem we have now is that the wettest April on record followed by the wettest June has left the ground saturated in many places. Effectively this means that the ground has little or no capacity to absorb any more rain that falls.

As a result, any further heavy rain has the potential to cause flooding very quickly – especially if it is intense and a lot falls in a short space of time.

Take last week’s thunderstorms in northern England, for example. The River Rede at Otterburn, in Northumberland, rose by almost three metres in the space of three hours – higher than the average height of the ceiling in your living room which is around 2.4 metres.

Where is at greatest risk from flooding?

The latest flood risk forecast from the Environment Agency shows the places at greatest risk of flooding. Orange and yellow on the map highlights a medium and low risk of river and surface water flooding respectively.

This matches the latest forecast for where the heaviest rain is expected during Friday with East Anglia, the Midlands, the Home Counties, north Wales and northern England prime candidates. Other parts of the UK will see some rain as well but at this stage it isn’t expected to have as great an impact.

How much rain is expected?

In the areas mentioned above, around 30-50mm of rain is widely expected, but some places could see as much as 70-80mm – especially across the hills and mountains, but not exclusively so.

Another factor that could complicate things further is that there could be some thunderstorms mixed in which would make the rain very intense.

This is what caused the flash flooding in the Midlands and northern England last week, with some places seeing around an inch of rain in an hour.

How certain is the forecast?

Despite the rain being less than 24 hours away from arriving, there is still an element of uncertainty as to exactly where the most intense rain will fall.

That is why in the flood risk map above the yellow low risk area borders the medium risk area. This takes into account the fact that the worst of the rain could shift a little further north or south.

What can you do to stay aware?

The Environment Agency updates the flood warnings on its web pages constantly, and it also provides updates via social media on Twitter and Facebook. You can find all the information you need here.

There is no doubt that some parts of the UK will once again be experiencing more unseasonable weather during the next 24 hours, and it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on the latest forecast.

I’ll be monitoring the situation tomorrow and will be using social media to bring you the latest information. If you have any videos, pictures or reports, you can send them to me via Facebook or Twitter – @liamdutton

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