Cool and unsettled for the rest of August

There’s no doubt that up until last weekend, summer has delivered most of us some great weather so far.

For much of the time the weather has been settled, with an abundance of warmth and sunshine, leading to a prolonged spell of above average temperatures.

Mean temperatures (an average of day and night temperatures) for June and July were 1.2C above average, marking the seventh month this year that temperatures have been above normal. 

As you might imagine, the settled weather has meant that rainfall has been below average so far this summer, and sunshine above – especially in July, when it was 37 per cent above what would normally be expected.

However, following a good summer so far, the weather looks to have turned a corner, with something a lot more changeable from this point onwards.

Jet stream position

As is always the case, it’s the position of the jet stream high in the atmosphere that is responsible for how our weather behaves at the surface.

For much of summer this year, it has been to the north of the UK, driving areas of low pressure and rain towards Iceland and northern Scandinavia, allowing us to be under the influence of high pressure.

However, at the end of last week, the jet stream moved south of us and was responsible for bringing the remnants of Hurricane Bertha to our shores, along with heavy rain, gales and fresher air.

Looking further ahead to the rest of August, there’s a strong signal that the jet stream will remain over or south of the UK, meaning that the cooler, unsettled weather is going to stay with us.

What can we expect?

Well, what is certain, is that the prolonged spells of sunshine and warmth that have characterised summer up to now will no longer prevail.

This isn’t to say that there won’t be any days that offer some sunshine and warmth, but it will tend to be much fresher with lower humidity.

Also, the nights are starting to draw in, meaning that there is a greater potential for cooling, resulting in some chilly mornings – especially under clear skies.

For the next 10 days, low pressure looks to be prevalent just to the north east of the UK. This would put us in a north to north westerly wind for much of the time.

As a result, most of the rain and showers will be across north western areas, with southern and eastern areas being relatively drier.

So, whilst not a washout, we may find ourselves reaching for that jacket or umbrella a little more often that we have recently.

Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website. I’ll also be posting regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton