18 Sep 2014

Does new IS video offer some sort of grim good news?

The Islamic State video of John Cantlie is clearly different from the group’s previous three, which showed the last moments of Americans James Foley and Steven Sotloff, and Briton David Haines.

In that sense, it is some sort of grim good news. Cantlie’s life is not directly threatened here. Instead, he is used as a mouthpiece. Sitting at a desk in an anonymous room, he warns the west not to fight another war, and criticises Britain and America for not negotiating hostage releases.

This message, delivered under duress, is clearly one of self-justification for IS. This is an attempt to sound reasonable, to reach out to public opinion and bypass western media to explain the group’s actions to date.

Cantlie tells us more videos like this will follow. We have to hope that this change in the pattern of IS hostage videos spells a change in behaviour towards hostages, though it is far too early to tell.

There’s no mention here of Alan Henning, another British hostage who was threatened in a video at the weekend. I am not suggesting that Mr Henning’s life is  less at risk now than it was then. But you have to wonder why, with John Cantlie, a change in video messaging tactics is taking place.

It is worth noting that a few weeks ago the IS general committee issued orders “preventing filming and publishing scenes of slaughter” as this “requires special permission from the committee.”

Maybe the Cantlie video points to internal debate within the group as to the merits of showing – and carrying out – the beheading of western hostages. The last such video, showing David Haines, was marginally less graphic than the previous two, another possible sign of internal dissent.

I suspect that IS doesn’t give a fig about justifying its actions to “western public opinion”. I wonder if the Cantlie video is not really aimed at Muslims, outraged at murders being carried out in their name. By coincidence, over 100 leading British Muslims today issued a plea for the killing to stop.

But we will only know if there has been a major change if there are signs that John Cantlie, Alan Henning and other hostages may be released – and there are no such signs yet.

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