People power meets diplo-army takeover

Rarely has an army takeover been so popular. It reminds me a little of Pakistani takeovers past – where people initially welcomed the getting rid of their corrupt civilian leaders, hoping for a brighter future. You have to hope Egyptians are not similarly disappointed in the coming months as they await their transition to democracy. The scenes suggest the people will not give up, but they will need to now organise politically.

The scenes in Cairo and Egypt’s other cities are joyful and inspiring. Egyptians are truly excited at the prospect of their country never being the same again. They want no more police intimidation and fear or arrest. And there is no question the people won this through bravery and determination – but in the end what the protests couldn’t achieve was the final removal of Mubarak. That needed the hard political power of military men, apparently coordinated by the intelligence chief and Vice President Omar Suleiman, who is the man with the hotline to Washington. Some sort of mysterious behind the scenes stitch-up has gone on and we do not really know how the chips will fall now.

The army is neither feared nor hated by most – its soldiers are of the people, its officers truly patriotic. They have little fear. But it isn’t as simple as them announcing democratic elections in September – the political parties do not have the kinds of structures and organisation that mature democracies have. The Muslim Brotherhood has been illegal for so long – it will have to transform into a new open political force. But the biggest challenge is for the young protesters who led this movement – they need to find their own leaders, to take the country forward and prevent the old characters holding on to power within the new structures. Suleiman could quickly become a controversial character as people decide whether to accept him as a transitional character and deliverer of democracy, or a pillar of the old regime. These are such exciting times. How they must be quaking in those autocratic regimes across the middle east!