Musharraf warns Pakistan region could fall

A couple of interesting first takes on history worth noting from two of the key players in the “war on terror” George Bush and Pervez Musharraf. Bush has revealed in his memoir what was long suspected – that Musharraf finally quit as Pakistani President and headed off to exile in London because the Americans pulled the rug away. And in an article Musharraf has claimed the West was wrong about Afghanistan all along while at the same warning the whole region including Pakistan could fall to Taliban/Al Qaeda militancy!

The Bush book confirms Washington had been propping up Musharraf for years because they felt he was the only man they could do business with while fighting in Afghanistan. They feared what an election in Pakistan might throw up, even though history should have told them precisely what the options were. But as the years went on the US President came under increasing pressure at home and from Britain that Musharraf was looking harder and harder to justify : sacking judges, holding resurgent political parties down. So Bush finally told him to go, when fears of what would happen had been reassured, and he did.

Now Musharraf has written a pretty scorching account of what the Americans and British got wrong as he says they prepare to “abandon” the region again. He says the political settlement with “moderate” Taliban now sought by the West is far worse than his original proposal to recognise the Taliban government and deal with it diplomatically, instead of invading in 2001. And he warns that unless Afghanistan’s non-Taliban Pashtun population get a hold of government things could get worse. Much of his article is an explanation of why Pakistan holds nuclear weapons, and he claims (although without much explanation) that they are secure.

This comes as the United States has finally dropped its formal concern over India’s nuclear arsenal, which had been an obstacle to backing of an Indian permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Musharraf effectively voices the concern of many Pakistanis that the US is throwing in its lot with India while abandoning the country it only ever needs when engaged in Afghanistan. But his reassurances on nuclear weapons seem contradictory, as he also warns the “borderless militancy Pakistan is fighting could take down the whole region”.  And he says Pakistanis fear the US could even use force against his country one day.

Reading their words it’s hard to tell how much these are the ramblings of two men who have lost power and contact with the military/political intelligence that used to inform their opinions, or whether they are finally telling it like it is.