French lessons

One of the reasons some Labour figures gave for Boris Johnson’s victory in London was the advantage of incumbency – the idea that voters tend naturally to give politicians a second term in office. It was also one of the reasons Labour‘s hope of making David Cameron a one-term prime minister seemed an uphill struggle. But after the defeat of Sarkozy in France, and the rejection of governing parties in Greece, Conservatives might well be wondering if incumbency is a help or hindrance.

As if you needed reminding we are not entirely like the French. Although Mitterrand and Chirac each won twice in France it has not historically been the norm to re-elect the incumbent. But there are possible lessons to be learned from Sarkozy’s rejection. Low income voters abandoned him and moved to what used to be fringe parties. The recent election performances in Britain of Ukip, the Greens and various independents suggest the same thing is likely here.

But Labour’s success in the local elections was largely because it managed to get a higher proportion of its core supporters out to the ballot box than the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. So it suffered less from the leakage of voters from the mainstream. If it can do the same at the next general election it might make a difference, even if turnout is down.

George Osborne has been shrugging off the impact of an Hollande victory in France but the chancellor was always well aware of the dangers of incumbency. Just after the banking crisis took hold in 2008 I went to interview him one weekend morning outside his home in Notting Hill. Those were the days when the Conservatives were still pledged to matching Labour spending, but he obviously knew that would all have to change. And he knew how unpopular the austerity measures a Conservative government would have (in his analysis) to take could end up being. That’s why they spent so long telling us how much trouble we were in and how painful it would be.

The problem for the Conservatives is that things have not gone quite according to the Osborne plan. We were not supposed to be back in recession now, and we were supposed to be on course to pay off more of the deficit than we are. The hope was that there would be more room for tax cuts in the final years of a Conservative government and the feelgood factor might at least be imaginable again.

Not only do Mr Osborne and Mr Cameron need to stop the leakage to Ukip and “others” but they need to convince their own Conservatives to keep the faith too – no easy feat when people like John Redwood have been out arguing the government doesn’t seem to be enough on the side of the people. So you can expect to see George Osborne and David Cameron spending more time showing they are not out of touch. It also increases the argument for a sort of “Minister for Interviews”.

The assumption among most commentators has always been that voters will have to be convinced by the prospect of Ed Miliband as Prime Minister before they reject the coalition. He still has much work to do on that, not least within his own party. But after last week’s electoral success there is no doubt Ed Miliband will lead Labour into the next election and the idea that David Cameron looks and sounds more Prime Ministerial was always over-simplistic. Like Sarkozy his incumbency may not help. Like the rest of Europe British politics seems less predictable now, and more exciting for it.

Follow @krishgm on Twitter.