Tory rebellion on Europe: a sign of strength or weakness?
Twenty five Tory MPs (including former Cabinet ministers Liam Fox and Owen Paterson) voted against the government over “purdah” – the question of whether the government should be allowed to support one side or the other in the last intense section of the referendum campaign.
The government’s promised to look at it all again and that’s made some rebels give them the benefit of the doubt. So is this a sign of strength or weakness for the rebels?
It comes soon after headlines that spoke of a pool of 50 or even 100 potential rebels on Europe, from which tonight’s rebel leaders might’ve expected to pull support.
Some of David Cameron’s EU counterparts will point to the small rebellion and say it’s proof the referendum is won and they don’t have to concede much. One rebel told me he’d told his whip, a little disingenuously, that he was rebelling to give David Cameron more negotiating strength.
The rebels argue that they have plenty of sympathisers lurking out there who were persuaded to hold their fire tonight and wait for the government’s “purdah” compromise to come later in the bill’s progress.
But the referendum process will not be like Maastricht, the long-running saga of backbench rebellions that sapped the energy and shattered the morale of the John Major government. It has a different dynamic.
The big debate now is over a renegotiation which will be followed by a giant safety valve for backbench discontent: their longed-for referendum. You even find committed “out” supporters who have no vested interest in a hard-hitting renegotiation as that could boost the case for staying in.
There are a lot of Tory MPs in the Euro-sceptic centre ground who say they don’t know if they’ll vote “in” or “out” in the referendum. They have longstanding commitments to serious reform of Europe but aren’t sure that what they know about David Cameron’s renegotiation strategy gets close to their hopes. They have careers to think of, in some cases. Talking to them, you sense they could go either way depending on what kind of deal David Cameron lands and how easy/plausible it is to sell it as substantial.
Labour saved David Cameron’s bacon tonight. They mounted what they called a “principled abstention” and thereby spared him his first defeat since the election. He may be hoping tonight is an indicator of a smaller than boasted Tory MP “out” contingent – though he can’t know that for sure.
But he’s been reminded of the tenuous majority of 12 and the dogged intent of Tory MPs, including former Cabinet members, who will not baulk at inflicting defeat … particularly when the issue is “Europe.”
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