29 Sep 2014

The Tories’ imperfect European armistice

George Osborne on BBC Radio 4 this morning stuck rigidly to the line that the Tory leadership is not shifting its position on whether there are any circumstances in which it might back an “out” vote in an “in/out” referendum.

BRITAIN-POLITICS-CONSERVATIVES

Many saw David Cameron‘s choice of words on the BBC yesterday as a sign he was making that shift. Mr Cameron’s aides insisted he was using an old form of words.

Another George Osborne remark on Radio 4 pointed to the awkward compromise at the heart of the Tories’ imperfect armistice on Europe. The chancellor refused to say whether it was wrong for Tory MPs to commit to an “out” vote in their election literature in the general election.

He repeatedly said the referendum was a “free vote for backbenchers” which goes to the heart of the Tory split on Europe. Scores of Tory MPs (around 80 perhaps if you rule out ministers) are in favour of the in/out referendum because they think the UK should come out of Europe.

In other words, scores of Tory MPs will be asking you to elect David Cameron as PM at the next election although they think his judgement is wrong on just about the most central questions of Britain’s foreign policy and international partnerships. Vote Cameron in order to get an opportunity to rubbish his strategic judgement, the leaflet might (or might not) run.

David Cameron is said to believe there is no point in making any more concessions to the disgruntled Euro-sceptics in his own party. The outline negotiation strategy he shared with the Sunday Telegraph in the run-up to the Euro elections may be too thin for many in his own party. But he thinks hardening it up will win no new seam of support. Better to re-emphasise that the Tories are offering a referendum Labour is refusing. Tories have found voters in Clacton still don’t realise that’s the offer in 2015.

One phrase really stood out in George Osborne’s interview and that was the whiff of triumphalism over the Scottish referendum and the read across to a Europe referendum. “The march of the separatists has been reversed,” the chancellor told the Today programme. Proof, it was implied, that the canny statesmanship of Cameron/Osborne could likewise confront the EU membership terms and come up trumps.

Banished from memory are the sleepless Downing Street nights of the last two weeks of the Scottish referendum. Banished alike the last minute panicked proposals pulled together to Tory backbench anger. David Cameron and George Osborne present you an alternative history; deep unaddressed issues were boldly addressed in a referendum and the right side won out. Problem is a good third of the Conservative parliamentary party are “separatists” when it comes to Europe. And it is a fissure Nigel Farage is determined to work away at.

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