Looks like David Cameron failed to get a majority of his own MPs in the gay marriage vote. Some 139 Tories voted against him. Around 30 abstained. Only 132 I’m told voted with the PM.

That’s at the worst end of expectations and is a giant signal to the Lords to create trouble when the bill gets there. It’s a massive piece of disobedience to the leader’s call to arms and will feed into growing perceptions of the Tories as divided.

When David Cameron told one Tory right-winger recently he felt he’d bitten off more than he’d expected with this business, he was – perhaps a little late in the day – spotting the problem.

Critics in his party will say he’s tried to copy the Blair apprpoach – taking on your own party – without checking if he could win.

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