3 Oct 2016

Theresa May: the captain of HMS Brexit surfaces

Theresa May rubbished the distinction between “hard” and “soft” Brexit as a “false dichotomy.” She then spoke in terms that left everyone I’ve chatted to afterwards convinced we’re heading for “hard Brexit.” She suggested control over immigration (and other laws) was a primary purpose of her government. She rejected EU laws dominating UK ones. She insisted, in the age old battle that has dominated Tory splits for decades, we are not going to be part of a supra-national political union. She said she hopes she can do this without damaging UK trade. Effectively, she took “full membership of the Single Market” off the table. She’s been reluctant to take anything off the table until now and even reprimanded David Davis when he jumped the gun a few weeks ago and seemed to state what to many was the obvious but to no. 10 was not yet sanctioned. It is now.

Mrs May has made much of due process in government but this decisive shift on Brexit strategy was not discussed at the last Cabinet. There was, I understand, a ring round of Cabinet ministers on Saturday to make sure they were not totally surprised and were signed up to the line.

Mrs May was clearly determined not to be upstaged by the Brexiteer ministers. Several big name Tories I spoke to left the hall after she’d spoken confident that the Foreign Secretary and the Brexit Secrertary hadn’t been left any decent fresh lines of their own to share. Mrs May wants total ownership of this policy; she wants to be seen as the skipper at the helm. We now have a clearer direction that the ship is steering in. Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform has repeatedly argued we are heading for a Canada Trade Deal with some additions. Brexiteer ministers would argue we can do much better than that because of various entanglements that allow us to improve our bargaining position. The truth is we are a very long way from the Norwegian and Swiss models ruled out by Theresa May today. There is a bit more definition to Brexit and it made lifelong Leave campaigners very cheerful as the first night’s happy hour got under way.

Proceedings were opened with a video tribute to David Cameron. It stopped, conveniently, at 2015, with no mention of 2016 and his downfall. Activists around me clapped late and low-key at images of their former leader, unsure of what they’re meant to think of the man they, as a Brexiteer-dominated bunch, effectively humiliated and destroyed.

As if pro-Leave activists hadn’t had enough to process there, Lord Heseltine then came onto the stage. There was an audible gasp from other activists. Lord Heseltine was there to introduce the West Midlands mayoral candidate. Presumably he was there also to show the party still has a place for people like the former Deputy PM feel comfortable in.  A member sitting next to me had no doubt where that place was: “Put him back in his box,” he grunted as the elder statesman walked to the microphone.

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