Syria response may show the limits of the PM’s authority
The government has snapped back at headlines saying it’s thrown in the towel on joining the US in attacking Syria. It will be mindful just how badly headlines like that read in Washington.
The PM has talked up the idea of British forces sharing the skies over Syria with US forces (in fact they already do, at different altitudes, performing reconnaissance flights). Mr Cameron’s said to be very conscious that the UK should always be shoulder to shoulder with the US when it can. He’s argued privately that British precision missiles on jets and drones are more accurate than some US equivalents.
In mid September there was a briefing meeting for interested Labour MPs in which the Defence Secretary Michael Fallon updated them on Syria, a meeting which predictably led to discussions about whether some Labour MPs could support the government if it put extending military action to Syria to a vote.
There were more informal contacts in the weeks since then but Labour hawks are insistent the current impasse isn’t due to them. MP John Woodcock talks of potentially 30/40/50 Labour MPs being ready to consider voting for military action but not ready to risk the wrath of Corbynistas for a minor involvement in air attacks.
Right now, the RAF would be a small component in a smaller operation. Since the Russians started bombing missions over Syria the US has pulled back on its strike missions. September was the lowest total yet for US air strikes against self-styled Islamic State targets – 120 compared with 369 in July.
The Defence Select Committee may not manage the unanimous attack on government strategy that Crispin Blunt marshalled on his Foreign Affairs Select Committee but its chairman, Dr Julian Lewis, speaking for himself, says the government approach amounts to putting pilots in harm’s way for a “gesture.”
The snappish quality of the No. 10 response on Syria owes itself to another factor too. The Autumn isn’t going to plan. The tax credits crisis has worried senior figures in No. 10 who thought they could safely franchise out economic policy to a Chancellor who was on the case. A full-fat government obesity strategy was supposed to have been published by now but seems stuck in the digestive system. The political antennae of the government operation don’t seem to be working well in the Commons or in the Lords. The insistence that the government would not weigh in on Europe until the renegotiation is complete has been abandoned under pressure from opinion polls.
At the moment of his maximum political authority, after an outright election victory few predicted, the Prime Minister is discovering the limits of his authority on several fronts.
David Cameron’s dream, discussed with his inner circle, is to win a Europe Referendum in September 2016 and then relaunch his leadership at the October Tory Conference with a policy-packed speech, banishing all questions about whether he’s a lame duck. But you wonder how easy such a glide-path will be when the first 5 months of majority government are so bumpy.