6 Sep 2012

Stirrings on the Tory backbenches

I’m not sure I agree with commentators saying the prime minister showed strength with his reshuffle. I think he knows full well that one of those he promoted in the cabinet encouraged backbench rebels to vote against the government line on an EU referendum and ostentatiously made no effort to deflect a rebellion on House of Lords reform.

And this minster has close allies on the backbenches who regularly talk to each other about working up “contingency plans” should David Cameron suddenly leave office over the Andy Coulson hiring or some other unforseen matter. One of the attendees tells me: “we are now exploring when ‘contingency’ becomes ‘challenge.'”

What that means is that some Tory MPs are quietly discussing whether the moment might come to send letters to the 1922 Committee Chairman, Graham Brady, demanding a contest for the leadership of the party. Some letters, I believe, went to Graham Brady back before the EU veto last year, but nothing like the 46 that are required (15 per cent of the parliamentary party) by the rules.

The moment when these dissidents talk of a potential challenge is after the May elections. MPs I spoke to admit that a change of economic climate would easily change the atmospherics in the party and kill off the conspiratorial chat. But it is happening in a very small circle of backbenchers – one or two prominent names amongst them. And some of those same individuals are actively trying to recruit others to the fold.

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