SNP poses difficult questions for Westminster parties
Just been watching the Holyrood debate on the referendum. Alex Salmond just said, following on from the Lab-Con harmony at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday, that Labour should be warned that the Tories would eat then up and “spit them out” just as they had the Lib Dems.
Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour leader, tried to distinguish her position from the UK Labour leader’s position saying she would engage in discussion about 16-18 year olds getting the franchise for the referendum, something Ed Miliband said he opposed. She repeated a criticism you hear a lot from Scottish Labour, that Alex Salmond only came up with the idea that the referendum should be in the latter part of his term of office (or only shared it with voters) in the last election hustings of the Holyrood election last year, 5 days before polling. Labour’s argument is that he could see he was going to get a majority in Holyrood and therefore would not be able to duck the referendum he wants one day but not too soon.
It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Westminster concedes the 2014 Autumn date to Alex Salmond, maybe even concedes the lower age franchise, insists on Electoral Commission oversight perhaps … but the 2 questions issue could prove to be the hardest nut to crack. Question 2 in the SNP’s planned referendum, offering “Devolution Max” – devolving all powers to Holyrood except Foreign Affairs and Defence – has slightly got lost in the constitutional row kicked off by David Cameron since Sunday. It could be a massive stepping-stone to independence and a major transformation of UK politics. Amongst other implications, Scotland would not be able to send so many MPs to Westminster, shrinking yet again the Labour safe seat strength in perpetuity.
The SNP, as so often in this saga, has gamed ahead on this and Scotland’s charitable sector organisation, the SCVO has already put out a press release saying how it wants more than one option to be discussed. Other representatives of civic Scotland are ready to join that call.
Meanwhile the Lib Dem’s own review in to what their position is on Scotland’s constitutional future is currently in the hands of a commission chaired by Ming Campbell that is not expected to report until the Autumn of this year.
Labour is saying devolution and independence are separate topics and should not be muddled. But if there’s a second question, “muddled” or combined they will be and Alex Salmond judges that would work mightily to his benefit, either luring voters to take the premium product on the shelf right next to the own brand one, or potentially giving him a mighty constitutional consolation prize if Scotland doesn’t vote to leave the UK.
There is much at stake on the second question issue and this is where, if you were guessing right now, disagreement and legal dispute could come into play.
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