18 Nov 2014

Rochester – graveyard for old political vessels

Rachel Reeves’ announcement that she is looking into restricting working tax credits for EU migrants was aimed at calming Ukip jitters in the Labour party and jumping in ahead of David Cameron’s imminent speech expected to make similar pledges.


The shadow welfare secretary promised she would stop child benefit and child tax credits being paid to EU migrants’ families who live abroad. She’d extend the ban on EU migrants claiming JSA to two years. David Cameron’s speech, which some think could come as early as next week, has been looking a similar measures and more.

Rachel Reeves’ new policy, announced on the Daily Mail website, seriously upset some on Labour’s front bench. Others will welcome it as a sign the party’s waking up to the Ukip challenge.

I’ve been visiting Rochester and Strood. I spent some of the day with the former MP for this area, Bob Marshall-Andrews, and brought along his Tory friend David Davis to ask how they think the Ukip beast should be slain.

Bob Marshall-Andrews said the main parties must not try to “out-Ukip Ukip”. David Davis said the same. But their analysis differs sharply.

Bob Marshall-Andrews thinks Ukip is an episode that will pass, a consequence in part of the two main parties growing closer together as prosperity and the welfare state narrow the political polarities in British life.

He thinks voters want to “shake the tree”. David Davis thinks it’s potentially something seismic. His biggest immediate worry is that Ukip success at the next election will produce a Commons that can’t produce stable government.

We asked both of them to try their hands converting Ukip supporters in Bob Marshall-Andrews’ old patch. They certainly heard some strident views but the pincer movement didn’t convert anyone. David Davis suggested it was maybe an indictment of two self-proclaimed anti-establishment politicians from the main parties that they had vacated ground to Ukip.

One senior local Tory with much experience on the ground spoke of the Ukip tide ebbing. He suggested the Tories might just have held the seat if David Cameron had gone for an even longer campaign.

Ukip campaigners say their vote is holding up. They talk of being only 8-9 per cent ahead of the Tories. One MP who has spent a lot of time down here thinks that Ukip could end up 15 per cent ahead.

Paul Nuttall was in Rochester Ukip. He said if David Cameron had thrown the kitchen sink at Ukip then it must’ve bounced.

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