Lib Dems – the existential threat
Just to clarify something I said on the programme tonight: the Lib Dems lost 44 per cent of seats they were defending in 2011 local elections. They are expected to do worse than that – losing 50 per cent of seats they are defending – this year.
If they carry on at a 50 per cent attrition rate, bearing in mind different numbers of seats come up at different elections, a friendly number cruncher of mine has calculated that by 2020 they could be struggling to get more than 1000 councillors nationwide. It would effectively eviscerate them as a force in local government – hundreds not thousands of them, across the whole of England, Wales and Scotland.
Of course, this looks a bit apocalyptic. But it’s something psephologists and Lib Dems mutter about: the existential trajectory. It should be mentioned that nothing is pre-determined and most pollsters seem to expect the Lib Dems to out-perform in tomorrow’s elections their grimmest national opinion poll predictions.
It should also be mentioned that the Lib Dems could become permanent fixtures on the Westminster political scene, vindicating Nick Clegg’s strategy, a third party of real power in perpetuity, suffering but not destroyed in the 2015 General Election. Enougj voters by 2015 may feel the Lib Dems have answered the eternal question – “what are they for?” – by giving the answer: “the Lib Dems moderate others in power.”
They could forsake their protest vote roots that helped to build up local strength for a regular slice of power at the centre.
But that’s not what some will be thinking as they wake up Friday morning.
There are 9 comments on this post
It’s also not something our idiotic electoral system will help out with.
They don’t seem to be doing anything to moderate the tories in power. And they have rolled over and died the minute the tories want them to change their mind about basic liberal beliefs.
If Labour have the sense to find a more charismatic leader (and no its not the other Milliband) then there will be no call for a third party of power as Labour will be returned with a massive majority!
Which in itself is a pity because we so desperately need new politics and real change from the two main parties in the UK.
As charismatic as Thatcher, or Blair, de Gaulle or Silvio Berlusconi. Or would the charisma of a Merkel be a refreshing change?
Your point Andrew?
In London there are London Lib Dems, with a completely different branding. They have their own website; on the lib dem site the manifesto presnetation for every other region is uniform, with same logo, positioning, intrio from Clegg etc., but completely different for London.
If they perform badly elsewhere today (and they will) might this and the dissatisfaction of activists with coalition cause an implosion?
One issue is what are the lib dems: are they liberals (individual freedom, free markets) or social democrats (welfare state, redistributive tax)? Do they believe in universalism (e.g. universal rights for women) or multiculturalism? Sterling or Euro? Sovereignty or US of Europe?
There seems to be a lot of philosophical inconsistencies.
Electors preferring to vote for Liberals or (nowadays) for Liberal-Democrats have always explained to me that their choice was motivated by their own distaste for either Labour or Conservatives.
Anyone thinking about the sort of disaster those negative preferences cause, should look no further than the appalling voting systems Scotland now suffers. With a different voting system for each of Scotland’s four different elections (European, Westminster, Holyrood and Local). Save for the Westminster elections now being manipulated by Conservatives, each new method was launched upon Scotland to secure Liberal-Democrat support.
An early demise would be greatly appreciated.
Sorry to report…
The LieDums gained a council seat (our seat) from the sole Tory of our three ‘representatives’.
This being in ‘Stuckport’ it should come as no surprise – the natives being of a ‘dripping-wet’ disposition !
There is another possibility….TGiven the elections of the last two years, the next Gweneral Election will almost certainly see the Glib-Dumbs reduced to perhaps 15 or so MPs in England and Wales and to just two in Scotland. Labour are also poised to sustain substantial losses in Scotland, but they can afford them. So who gains? Probably the SNP who could well have 30-ish MPs and therefore become the 3rd party in Westminster politics..that would have interesting implications don’t you think? Would Libs and Gnats alternate on the BBCs Question Time? Would Robertson supersede Clegg (well..Clegg’s sucessor) at PMQs? Or – if the election is very close-run, would Miliband be able to make a deal with the SNP without totally alienating his Scottish MPs? Not so unlikley as it might seem, after all, the gnats kept Labour in power for quite a while in the 1970s