31 Oct 2011

Is Europe wooing China’s President Hu?

So the OECD thinks that next year’s growth in the eurozone will no longer be 2 per cent but more like 0.3 per cent.

The OECD boss accompanies this forecast with a “P.S.” – muck about with the plan you, the eurozone, announced at last week’s summit and that forecast could very easily dive into the negative.

(The Office for Budget Responsibility‘s forecast for UK growth in 2012 was 2.5 per cent and we find out on 29 November what their new forecast is…but to give you a flavour of where things are heading the most recent independent economic surveys being collated by the Treasury point to 1.3 per cent UK growth in 2012 … and, of course, tomorrow we get 3rd quarter 2011 first estimates, which folk think could be down from earlier 0.5 per cent estimate to 0.3 per cent).

So how is the EU grand bailout plan looking today, 5 days on? China’s President Hu is on a European tour, inspecting some of his investments. He’s in Austria today and (at best) mixed signals continue on whether China will want to help bail-out the eurozone.

The official Chinese news agency said China would not be “saviour” to the Eurozone. In Italy, Silvio Berlusconi has rubbished suggestions that he’s going anywhere soon. Despite the ardent wishes of senior Germans and many others, Mr Berlusconi says he is staying put in power for 18 months. In Portugal, I see reports that the PM there is looking for “adjustments” to Portugal’s existing bail-out plan to help with economic growth. And in Greece, it is no clearer yet quite where the billions heading Greece’s way go .

The summit merry-go-round moves to the G20 in Cannes on Thursday. Expect a grand ceremony in which Europe’s leaders hand over the keys to the continent to China. Well, maybe not…but watch the body language and you might feel that’s what you are seeing.

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