How many LibDems will back Nick Clegg’s handiwork tonight
The NHS reforms row that bubbles on in the Commons today is definitely not part of the government’s grid. Michael Gove out and about talking about schools is what they want you to notice. Private Tory polling suggests that the voters associate the Tories with one political project: “cuts.”
The Tories think that to win a mandate on their own next time round they need to show that they built something in their time in office and weren’t just about chopping things down.
So they are trying to focus on education reforms (relentless speeches and photo opportunities since the holidays ended) and welfare reforms. The polling suggests that hardly any voters know what an “academy” is let alone a “free school.” So there’s an attempt to focus on these and keep repeating the mantra in the hope something sinks in. On welfare the government’s looking into getting more “conditionality” into work-related benefits and the quad (Osborne, Alexander, Clegg and Cameron) is trying to come up with a shatter-proof benefit cap that doesn’t implode under scrutiny. There will be, I hear, a relief fund of some kind to help families who suffer unduly through the cap.
All of this is an acknowledgement that, as I mentioned before, George Osborne and others in the government’s upper ranks now think that the NHS reforms were a reform too far and the government should’ve been more focused on fewer activities. The view in No. 10 is that the 1000 plus amendments tabled and the “pause” and re-think on the NHS will have the overall effect of slowing things down a little but not fundamentally changing the direction of travel in Andrew Lansley’s original reforms.
Some Lib Dems seem to have awoken to a similar thinking but their leader can’t now diss a diluted package he praised as a triumph so he is dragooning his people into line as best he can. It’s looking right now as though there could be half a dozen Lib Dems votes against but more than half the party’s backbenchers abstaining.
As Nick Clegg knows all too well that is hardly a vote of confidence in his handiwork amending the bill and a signal to Lib Dem peers to do their worst and Conference likewise. Some Lib Dem MPs take the view that the ball is still in play so they should keep trying to score more goals.
Latest
Some soothing words from Lib Dem health minister Paul Burtstow appear to have calmed down Lib Dem MP rebellion tonight. We could now be looking at 3 or so rebels and 10 or so abstentions. Still a sign of “creeping indiscipline” one Lib Dem minister said to me. But at one stage this morning it could’ve been worse.
Who’s the boss?
And here is a treat moment from PMQs. Nadine Dorries speaks for many Tory MPs on this one and from my vantage point in the press gallery I can report that David Cameron blushed all the way to his developing bald patch.
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