David Cameron was on the way home from Brussels via Paris and was meant to have his first Elysee Palace meeting with President Hollande. The two had already planned to start pre-G8 discussions together on the train from Brussels to Paris but I understand those conversations were interrupted by intelligence on the Woolwich killing being brought to Mr Cameron.

It sounds as though witnesses have referred to the attackers in Woolwich being “of  Muslim appearance” and that language has seeped into national news coverage via official sources which will create its own interest in how these matters are reported.

The police appear to be calling for an end to speculation on what happened in Woolwich until they’re ready to brief but their internal briefings are emerging from other parts of the government machine.

UPDATE

The prime minister is now going ahead with talks with President Hollande and coming back late tonight.

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter.

It looks on this, as in the earlier vote, around 40 per cent of Tory MPs (123 this time) took the time to support David Cameron‘s personally endorsed bill. Owen Paterson and David James, both cabinet ministers, opposed the bill.

It’s a bruising end to a rough few days for David Cameron and, these rebels hope, a message to the Lords to do their worst with the bill.

I’m told by one cabinet minister who has seen David Cameron in cabinet today and at a recent cabinet committee that the stress was showing on him more than this individual felt they’d seen before.

I met one Tory MP this afternoon who had literally just come down from the office of the chairman of the 1922 committee, where he had just deposited his letter demanding a vote of no confidence in the Tory leader. That doesn’t mean there are anywhere near the 46 letters (15 per cent of the parliamentary party) required to trigger that vote, but it shows you that for at least one MP the gay marriage measure was enough.

I bumped into Frank Dobson who suggested he’d found the perfect bill to keep the Tories’ nerves on edge and destabilise the party in perpetuity. It would be called the Compulsory Religious Same Sex Marriage to Romanians and Bulgarians (Gassing Badgers) Bill.

One Tory cabinet minister I bumped into said if Frank attached the word “referendum” at the end, it might just do the trick.

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter

One who heard these riffs said Mr Hilton made it sound like a blood transfusion. He wasn’t “sneering” in any class sense but he wanted David Cameron to be seen as embracing metropolitan thinking on issues like acceptance of the gay community and he saw the older, more traditionally minded membership as an obstacle to that.

Gary Streeter, former minister under John Major, has told his local paper that some of his fellow MPs are swivel-eyed, which keeps the phrase in the headlines for another day. That’s a very different accusation from the one attributed to a senior figure close to David Cameron, who thought the grassroots were driving Tory MPs to obsessive and destructive behaviour.

I chatted to some of David Cameron’s starkest critics in parliament this morning and they were showing no sign of needing grassroots energising. One said that the prime minister had already “played his John Major poker cards” and his “appeasement” of his backbenchers had failed. One MP said he was still wedded to the idea of toppling David Cameron with letters to the chairman of the 1922 Committee demanding a vote of no confidence in the party leader and speculating that several more may have gone in within the last few days. He said it was like a “water clock,” quietly filling up before the hour strikes.

The marriage (same sex couples) bill gets its third reading in the Commons today and a vote at 7pm will be the moment for quite a few Tory MPs to register their unhappiness and give a signal to the House of Lords to wreak what havoc it can on the bill. The government is confident it will get this on the statute book by the summer recess and that was always the plan in bringing it forward now.

Mr Cameron’s team hopes it will be a distant memory by the time of the 2015 general election and they hope to start shifting the agenda on to other stuff almost immediately. There’s the G8 meeting in Northern Ireland, which the PM hopes will be a moment for him to bang on about his “global race” agenda. There’s the spending round for 2015-16, which he hopes will give him a chance to return to battle lines with Labour and outline some fresh ones.

It’s only a short period since sections of the right-wing press were praising Mr Cameron for sticking it to Labour on welfare and were joining him in turning their fire on Ed Miliband. Can it turn round again just as violently? What’s the residual impact on voters of several days of rows?

David Cameron’s team isn’t taking the Survation poll yesterday (Tories on 24 per cent,only 2 per cent above UKIP) too seriously. And they point to how the Labour party’s support has drifted down from an average around 43 per cent to an average around 38 per cent. They think that while the Tories were the main victims of UKIP’s first surge from 3 per cent to 10/11 per cent, their second surge to 15 per cent seems to be draining off more Labour supporters.

Whether David Cameron’s ship can be stabilised will come down to the party “holding its nerve” through this year and through the big test of next year’s European Parliament elections, one aide said – a tall order, you might think, on the basis of the last few days.

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter.

Then his co-chair, Grant Shapps, took over.

There was about 30 minutes or so of discussion about what exactly had been said before a vote calling for an investigation that was overwhelmingly defeated.

Three people sounded interested in supporting the idea of an investigation, one source suggested, but once it was clearly not getting a lot of support that was that. No additional information or evidence was provided to sway the discussion. What seems to have happened is that Lord Feldman, who is pretty popular with board members and is thought to listen to grassroots and parliamentarians, had some credit in the bank.

One who was at the meeting said even if Lord Feldman had suddenly changed his story (he denies describing activists as “swivel-eyed loons” who were driving their Tory MPs to rebellion) he would still have been backed (after an apology) because he has shown courtesy and competence in his job.

The papers looked like they scented blood on Saturday and were closing on their prey. I sense the papers are not, as things stand, ready to escalate this one to a full-scale, sustained campaign.

This morning, I met some activists in Tim Loughton’s constituency. There the “swivel-eyed” quotes seemed to wash off their backs, though their MP thought they had the authentic whiff of Notting Hill condescension about them. For the activists, journalists weren’t trusted enough to make the claims that credible and insults weren’t so unusual when you spend your spare time knocking on doors for a political party.

Same-sex marriage bill

On gay marriage, there was a readiness to engage with the idea combined with a feeling that it would probably be better if it wasn’t happening right now, a sense that it was too much for many in the older generation to handle and was too much too soon.

Outside, amongst the voters, the generation gap in opinion was striking. Younger voters were almost uniformly un-bothered. Older voters unhappy with the idea and saying it was typical of David Cameron and his “wishy washy”/”all things to all men” approach.

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter

Conservative whips have said there will be a three line whip for Tory MPs on 5 July when it is first debated. That means it is guaranteed Second Reading, the first hurdle.

It will then go into committee for detailed discussion, and the problems come on Third Reading in the Commons. That’s when it could easily be talked out.

Fair to say that the expertise in talking out these bills normally resides on the very benches of the Tory Party most wedded to a referendum but I suspect others can pick up the skills quite quickly.

Where does all this leave what No. 10 is inviting us to believe is a seamless unifying strategy that unites David Cameron and Peter Bone?

Tory MPs are already asking the prime minister to apply massive pressure to Nick Clegg to cave in to their demands – some want the PM to make a coalition walk-out ultimatum, daring the DPM to leave the coalition.

No. 10 is trying to get on top of the game more – hence the whips’ message to MPs about the whipping, trying to answer a question before its asked – but there are some demands it’s hard to see them taking ownership of themselves!

Then, lurking not far off, is the grizzly moment when the debate turns from process to substance: what exactly is the renegotiation about and what are David Cameron’s bottom lines? It was brought up in the 1922 Committee meeting of backbench MPs last night. You can read a very good account of where this might all go here in today’s Spectator.

On the plus side, David Cameron might be cheered by The Guardian front page story which reports “leading politicians” in Germany (for which, I think you can read Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schauble) desperately wanting Britain to stay in the EU.

No. 10 would be inclined to strip out the stuff about how it would be a disaster for the UK to leave and focus on how it would be disastrous for Germany and how that increases the UK’s negotiating power in any possible future reconfiguration on Europe.

David Cameron will want to look like he can ride two horses in the coming months.

He’ll want to signal to his backbenchers that he’s serious about shaking up Europe but also be seen as a central player in Europe who hasn’t lost his influence through his strategy. Chancellor Merkel has already shown that she’s willing to help on this with the imagery of the joint meeting they held at her country retreat a few weeks ago.

On Wednesday in Brussels at the one day mini-summit he could meet up with President Hollande and Italy’s new Prime Minister, somewhat less supportive of his project.

One point that David Cameron and some of his more euro-sceptic backbenchers will take some comfort from is the thought that next year’s European Parliament elections won’t just see a euro-phobic surge in the UK – with support for Ukip potentially putting them top of the poll. The same thing could happen in some other EU countries encouraging, you hear Tory MPs speculate, leading other EU countries to think they maybe should engage with the UK Conservative official policy of decentralising the EU.

(Although it’s worth saying that a growing number of David Cameron’s backbenchers have given up on renegotiation before it’s even started and just want out.)

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter.

One senior and very active “rebel” MP said the idea that the prime minister was toasting him in New York was hilarious. One of his allies said nothing would turn him, and that the PM simply “cannot be trusted,” but he acknowledged that the whips’ work was wearing down some rebels and numbers might be “closer to 60 or 70″ than the 100 plus that had been hoped for earlier.

Edward Leigh, who will most definitely not be turned on the amendment, asked Nick Clegg if the leaflet (below) in which someone claiming to be Nick Clegg promises an in/out referendum was an “imposter or a hypocrite”?

The plotting for a leadership coup that started last autumn was fizzling out this spring.

There were still a few organisers doing the rounds asking MPs to sign up and pursuing the idea of letters to the 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady demanding a vote of no confidence in the leader. But they weren’t getting much pick-up and some who had been “maybes” for the whole enterprise were signalling they’d got cold feet.

But much the same crowd has re-formed around a different project: bringing down the coalition. They are determined that the Tories must go into the next election shorn of their Lib Dem encumbrances as they see them and free to speak their minds.

The incidental damage of such an act, in defiance of their leader, might well bring down David Cameron if it succeeded. But that would be a (for some a close) secondary aim. There is much more to this rebellion for some participants than they would have you think.

UPDATE

I hear that annoyance at the government trying to whip what is supposed to be a free, unwhipped vote is potentially running the tally of votes for the amendment up again. Some rebels are still saying they have “around 100″.

There were suggestions that the meeting of Tory backbenchers, the 1922 Committee, could turn into a moment for airing some of that anger. One PPS I spoke to, who was angry with the “rebels”, said he wanted to vote against the amendment and had been ordered by his whip not to do so. Lewis Carroll, thou should’st be living at this hour.

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter

Conservative HQ is expected to publish its referendum bill around lunchtime today. They are describing this as “creative” thinking on their part and saying that when the Commons votes on it it will be a “blessing.” That, they say, is because it will put Lib Dems and Labour on the spot, show they’re opposed to the Tory in/out referendum policy, and boost the Tories’ support.

This, it could be argued, overlooks the fact that David Cameron announced the referendum idea in a much-trailed, massively reported speech in January and it helped his ratings very little. What helped his ratings was the Tory party’s harsh tone on welfare and sections of the press turning their fire on Ed Miliband. Both those activities have been suspended while the Tories get their teeth stuck into Europe again and the prime minister struggles to looks like he’s in command of the situation.

Tory high command is saying the “let’s publish our own bill” initiative (I hear the PM has flown back one of this press aides from the US trip to help with this) makes tomorrow’s vote on an amendment to the Queen’s Speech a “sideshow.” It does take some of the sting or punch out of that occasion but does nothing to make it any less baffling. The prime minister is giving backbenchers and aides licence to abstain, support or oppose (ministers to oppose or abstain on) an amendment which criticises the coalition’s legislative programme for not containing a bill the prime minister never publicly called for before. That bill would require the next government after 2015 to hold a referendum in 2017 after a renegotiation of membership terms with EU partners. This bill, the supporters say, will encourage voters to trust David Cameron’s pledge but, as they well know, the bill can’t bind a future administration.

Earlier, I was at the Royal Academy by St James’ Park where the Nottingham University Politics team were presenting their latest survey of parliamentary rebellions. They mentioned that there appears to be no precedent they have found for a government allowing a free or partially free vote on its legislative agenda. The levels of rebellion have already been phenomenal in this session – particularly for new intake 2010 Tory MPs. This latest initiative moves things into dangerously uncharted territory in terms of party discipline in parliament. Philip Cowley called the Cameron “initiative” a “capitulation” which would only leave his backbenchers demanding more.

As for the broader picture on parliamentary rebellions, Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart say that the nature and size of cross-coalition rebellion or conflict would easily have brought down a continental coalition by now. Mark Stuart said the coalition had already effectively reduced to “confidence and supply” status because of the inability of the leaderships to deliver support for common measures beyond those that are already common ground between the two parties or are smaller house-keeping measures.

The two coalition leaderships might argue that’s exaggerating their discipline issues and might comfort themselves that they’ve already voted through their big measures and set them sailing. In both Nick Clegg’s office and David Cameron’s team you hear of how they see the next two years as the leaders getting out there selling stuff while the ministries (they hope) get on with delivery. The last 48 hours suggest David Cameron could be spending a decent portion of that time trying to manage his party on Europe.

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter.

Well, back here, after a day chatting to Tory MPs, I have to say the feeling’s mutual.

There is an amazing amount of ill-will and bafflement in Tory ranks over David Cameron’s leadership on Europe. You find passionate supporters of the leader saying they’ve no idea what “the line” is on Europe and think the PM is in danger of looking like he is followng the Ukip leadership.

You find critics sharpening their rhetoric. “He’s worse than John Major on Europe,” one former minister said.

One minister said that he and quite a few colleagues feel that the PM didn’t think through the logical implications of his January speech on Europe.

Those who think that Mr Cameron will be quietly thrilled that Tories are saying what he can’t say might be a bit wide of the mark.

David Cameron would definitely not choose the moment he promotes an EU/US trade deal at the White House for a chorus of “let’s leave now” from his own party.

And though you could argue that it was useful in negotiations for the other side to think you might walk, that may exaggerate how much David Cameron’s mind is on post-2015 negotiations rather than getting to and through the 2015 general election.

The Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, has been making mischief suggesting that Tory MPs who are close to the Ukip position on policy might come to a deal with Ukip to stand on joint tickets.

Ballot papers would explicitly state that an individual candidate was a Conservative/Ukip candidate.

Mr Farage doesn’t think David Cameron would ever sign up to that but he claims that some Tory associations have discussed it and could take matters into their own hands.

Since the PM met the Dalai Lama at St Paul’s Cathedral in May 2012, Britain has been put on the naughty step by Beijing. The UK ambassador in Beijing hasn’t been allowed to see anyone of significance in the regime and cabinet ministers have been, in the words of one minister, effectively “banned” from China. The Chinese make it clear that if a cabinet minister turns up they won’t get to see anyone important so the visit is effectively killed off.

David Cameron has said he wants to break this impasse and go to China later this summer or in the autumn and today, No 10 hopes, could help to make that possible.

When France and Germany were put in the deep freeze by China for similar thought crimes, meeting with the Dalai Lama, they were both made to sign joint statements with Beijing “clarifying” their views on China. You can see the French version if you click on this report of the Sarkozy/Hu Jintao bilateral on the margins of the London G20 in 2009.

It’s not clear whether the Chinese are demanding a similar joint statement to be signed by the UK, but David Cameron’s words in the Commons recognising that Tibet is part of China show he’s ready to peace-make if they are.

Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter.

Old Home Office hands say that the bulk of illegal immigration tracking comes down to having the staff and expertise to do the case work. Today’s measures shift the burden of work to others – employers and landlords.

On deportations, the home secretary is going to enshrine in legislation advice to judges to deploy article 8 of the human rights act – the right to family life – only in exceptional circumstances.

But it’s not always the individual potential deportee’s rights that judges are looking at when they decide against deportation, it’s sometimes the rights of family relations who are themselves British citizens that the judges are considering.

Fines on businesses that are employing are already pretty hefty – limitless where there was an intention to deceive. It’ll be interesting to see what detailed recommendations look like for making them heftier still.

Landlords may find it difficult to check immigration documents as the government briefing suggests they’ll be required to do. Labour’s making much of how the government will find it tricky to chase down landlords without a landlords register.

In a week in which the royal family started easing the heir to the throne into a more prominent role or jobshare with the Queen, Prince Charles, making a rare appearance at the state opening of parliament, was also briefly keeper of the Duchess of Cornwall’s handbag as the couple negotiated their carriage back to Buckingham Palace.

Follow @GaryGibbonblog on Twitter