16 Feb 2012

Cameron talks humble pie on Scottish independence

At David Cameron’s speech in the shadow of Edinburgh Castle. Anti-cuts protestors chants waft by from the street. But up here on the 5th floor of an Edinburgh hotel David Cameron is, he says, speaking in a spirit of “humble pie.”

The PM has been told in no uncertain terms that he must not sound condescending; “the Scotland couldn’t hack it on its own” line that politicians of blue and red have been heard to say behind the scenes for years. So in interviews before this speech the PM almost went overboard straining to avoid offence, talking about how even if Scotland separated the “constituent parts would still be strong.”

His rabbit out of the sporran was spelling out that he would consider further devolution of powers to Scotland beyond the current Scotland Bill after a referendum (ie potentially after Autumn 2014). He hopes this might bring the Alex Salmond timetable forward. But in the Q and A session it wasn’t at all clear what powers he would happily devolve.

The speech was peppered with historical and romantic allusions to the bonds that bind us. The PM insists he wants to be positive. But he talks in his speech about how we are better off together because of our UN Security Council seat, protective armed forces and anti-terrorist capability. You don’t have to be David Hume to see that he’s saying Scotland would be less influential and less protected if it went it alone.

Some diplomats believe that the UK’s UNSC seat would quickly be challenged if Scotland left the UK. Russia’s seat was challenged when the USSR broke up, but the then US Secretary of State James Baker struck a deal that Russia would keep its seat and status in return for keeping under control its vast and disbursed nuclear arsenal. The country formerly known as the UK wouldn’t have such negotiating power.

On the Bank of England and whether it would act as lender of last resort, he said there would be answers to questions like that in a referendum campaign. When people talk of L of LR status they normally mean not the behind-the-scenes bank liquidity measures which don’t get publicised and apply to more than the core high street, but to massive state bail-outs or part nationalisations. Those in the end by definition are Treasury/government decisions … so you can guess from that what the official guidance on the impact of Scottish independence will look like when it comes.

Gary Gibbon tweets at @GaryGibbonBlog

Tweets by @garygibbonc4