7 May 2010

Cameron heads for Downing Street – but his position could be relatively weak

We could be heading for David Cameron going to No. 10 but in a relatively weak position that will make it difficult to govern. Not impossible, but difficult.

There is much that could be done without legislation and that includes a lot of the main narrative of the next government – how you cut the deficit. There would be many opportunities when it comes to legislation to frustrate his will.

Very importantly for the future election, which may not be a long way off, David Cameron would not be able to redraw the parliamentary boundaries and cut the number of seats the way he wanted to – a reform that would have benefited his party.

If Labour and the Lib Dems decide they don’t really have the momentum to justify an alternative joint government it leaves the question how might their relationship develop in opposition?

A new Labour leader might try to woo the Lib Dems more systematically than the rather last minute speed-dating that Gordon Brown attempted with his late conversion to electoral reform. That relationship, if it prospered under a new Labour leader, could easily pose a big threat to a Tory party that had been in power administering painful medicine to the public sector.

Tweets by @garygibbonc4