Battle of wills begins on Scottish independence
When Alex Salmond won his landslide victory last spring, a rather shell-shocked coalition government in London didn’t contest his assertion that he could call a referendum on independence when he liked. The coalition didn’t want to look like it was frustrating the will of the Scottish people. That’s now changed.
A battle of wills started today as the cabinet discussed plans to rein in Alex Salmond, try to reassert and amend London powers to call a referendum, and start calling the shots. The coalition now says it will let Alex Salmond have a referendum only if it happens in the next 18 months and only if it is a straight “in or out,” one question referendum. 
Alex Salmond has been planning a cannier model of a referendum – one he says is based on the two question referendum ballot used in the devolution vote in 1997. Voters get to vote on “devo(lution) max” – giving Scotland powers over everything except foreign policy and defence – and on full independence. Opponents say this is a wheeze by the SNP to (a) try to lead voters to a position so close to independence that, on the day, they might just plump for the real thing anyway; and (b) make sure there’s a massive consolation prize for SNP supporters in the form of a big step towards independence and (c) call the whole thing in 2014-15 when the coalition cuts will have hurt and the SNP will have had ample time to set the stage for the vote. London is clearly worried it’s a wheeze that could work.
FactCheck: Who loses if Scotland goes it alone?
So what next? The coalition will start amending the Scotland Bill to implement its approach. Alex Salmond’s deputy Nicola Sturgeon said this morning: “We’ll stick to our plan” – i.e. the Scottish government is not intending to budge from the two question vote in 2014-15. Both sides will be focus grouping and polling like crazy to see whose version of events is convincing the Scottish people. This battle is only just beginning.
If – and it is still an “if” – the referendum happens to London’s timetable, what is the independence settlement that people are voting on? What are the economic, resource, division of spoils terms of independence? It appears that the referendum that London is talking about would not be a “will you give the Scottish government the right to negotiate terms of independence that then get put to the people?” sort of poll. It would be an “in or out” poll without, as things stand, clear numbers – bills, invoices – for what that would mean.
Happy New Year or Bliadhna Mhath Ùr to you all!
There are 13 comments on this post
Can we assume that, if the coalition is committed to a simple In/Out referendum for the Scots, then we can expect the same simple and definitive approach to an EU referendum.
None of that fatuous ‘repatriation of powers’, malarkey, eh Dave ?
Gary,
If the Scottish people wish to leave the Union then plainly no democrat can deny them that right. But it will be a sad day if they do. And likely they will find the grass is not necessarilly greener on the other side.
What this illustrates is just how much loathing there is for London and its monopoly of finance and development in its own interests. Even Heseltine was moved to say recently that nothing would change until the south east imposed monopoly was broken.
You can see why when release of government documents show London-based government actively suggested abandonment of 2.5 million people in Merseyside after London-based policies had inflicted decline in the first place.
If Scotland goes, likely there will be a parallel movement in neglected English regions. London is despised for quite practical reasons. Sooner or later it will take solid political form.
You can’t say there haven’t been enough warnings.
If i am running a business and i divest part of that business then i have to have some control over the process and the timing. Inevitably there is dialogue between the two parties.
Salmon and Cameron should both understand that this divestiture will affect both Scotland and the rest of the UK so there has to be dialogue.
Salmon and Cameron should stop screwing around in public and get on with putting together a firm plan and process.
I’m sick of the MPs, government, government depts wasting time and money that we as a country havent got.
JFDI!
Bliadhna mhath ur dhuibhse cuideachd!
I don’t understand Cameron’s offer of a binding referendum – even supposing the Westminster govt organised a referendum tomorrow and there was a yes vote, the result wouldn’t have the force of law. The Westminster parliament has to pass an act to dissolve the union, and it could do that in response to a Holyrood initiated referendum or a Westminster one.
I’d say that DC has done exactly the right thing here.
Let them go then maybe we can finally have an English parliament. The sooner they go the better.
The sooner the better! look up Denmark on Wikipedia, the same number of people as Scotland, HALF the land mass, no natural resources [ie oil] Full employment, zero poverty, low crime rate, an equitable distribution of wealth, who in their right mind would prefer to be part of a warmongering, plutocratic, ballot-rigging, gerrymandering [First Past The Post Electoral System] soon to be One Party State [As the Tories will be in power for the rest of this Century winning landslide after landslide on less than 40% of the vote, with less than 50% turnout]
If you see Alex Salmond can you suggest that he includes the north of England in his referendum?
We’d rather be run by the SNP than by the coalition and if he wins for Scotland alone, it will almost certainly mean permanent Tory governments in England and Wales. God help us.
How dare Cameron and his mouthpieces claim that Salmond should not wait because he didn’t include a time in his manifesto. I clearly remember him saying it would be in the second half of the Scottish parliament. But then you can’t expect ‘no top down changes to NHS’ tories – and especially their lib dem ‘we will abolish tuition fees’ playmates to believe anyone should stick to election promises.
“”Alex Salmond’s deputy Nicola Sturgeon said this morning: “We’ll stick to our plan” – i.e. the Scottish government is not intending to budge from the two question vote in 2014-15.”"
Mr Salmond is prepared to have two questions BUT only if the Unionists come up with the question on DevMax AND define what they mean by it. He has made it quite clear that if there are two questions then the SNP will be campaigning for independence and it will be up to the unionists to campaign for devomax.
It would appear from Mr Cameron’s comments today that the unionists are not going to frame a question on DevoMax so…
Perhaps when you next get a chance to interview representatives of the Unionist parties in Scotland you could ask them why they are now so keen on a referendum when a year ago they were dead set against one and made it clear that they would vote down the Scottish Government’s Referendum Bill which the SG had published in 2009-2010 when they were a minority Government. If the Unionists had agreed to support the Bill then all of this would have been done and dusted by now.
I’ll be voting YES to independence. Cheers!
On the subject of Mr Cameron’s concern about the lack of clarity on the referendum harming investment in Scotland: First Minister Alex Salmond will attend a global energy forum in Abu Dhabi this week where he is expected to sign a ground breaking deal with Abu Dhabi renewables giant Masdar that would see Scottish universities working with Masdar academics to develop new wind, solar, wave and tidal technologies.
Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne have claimed companies are reluctant to invest in Scotland. Have they ever named any of the companies?
Yet companies such as Amazon, Mitsubishi, Siemens, Gamesa and on and on have all recently invested in Scotland. It is really a bit rich in this day and age to suggest that international, global parties cannot cope with a country seeking independence.
The question of indepenance for Scotland affects the whole of the UK so it’s reasonable for the whole of the UK to consider the timing of the referrendum and the questions put. If the Scots want to leave then most of would wish them well, but if they stay in Europe they will be kidding themselves that they are independant.
Why aren’t the English allowed a vote? I’d vote for Scottish independence and then we can bin the Barnett Formula. Even Joel Barnett, who devised it, thinks it’s grossly unfair to the English.