A few thoughts on the headlines in 2012
Channel 4 News’ Political Editor offers his predictions for the year ahead.
Eurozone
British and Brussels sources I’ve spoken to remain convinced that, when there’s nothing else for it, Chancellor Merkel will press the button and the ECB will metamorphose into a full-blown, flying, lender of last resort, central bank, thereby saving the entire eurozone project. But a crisis of Europe’s banks could throw everything into a dark pit before that happens.
Economy
A shallow double-dip recession in the UK now seems as good as it gets. The eurozone crisis could throw the graph lines much lower. Government ministers will spend most of the year bedecked in high-visibility jackets to remind you how busy they are pushing growth … but rising unemployment, insolvencies and low confidence seem with us for 2012.
Public sector
Cuts to the public sector already now prolonged and deepened may be added to in 2012. That would come just as some of the cuts already announced begin to bite, unless the deficit reduction target is “adjusted” or, as some economists argue, the Autumn Statement OBR gloomy forecasts prove overly pessimistic allowing the government to undercut its latest borrowing predictions.
Coalition
The coalition will continue, albeit with passion spent. Neither party can pretend the economic emergency that brought them together is sorted so either would risk accusations of abandoning the national interest they claim to protect if they bailed out early. The Lib Dems would additionally risk plummeting to earth without a parachute. The main tensions will come over Europe, with some Tory backbenchers regrouping to push for repatriation of powers.
Scotland
Alex Salmond still wants a two ballot paper referendum maybe as late as 2015 with the second ballot paper offering “devolution max” (all powers to Scotland except defence and foreign affairs). The new Labour leader in Scotland, Johann Lamont, wants to stop the second question, have one vote – on independence – and have the referendum as soon as possible. Who wins that battle should become clear in 2012 and could have huge implications for the future of the union.
Afghanistan
There is pressure to bring forward what is already a pretty tight withdrawal timetable. The treasury thinks early drawdown could bring significant savings in the billions. That requires more engagement with the Taliban.
Phone hacking
Expect charges to be brought over police accepting money from newspapers and over phone and computer hacking. This story will run throughout 2012 with potential criminal cases, appeals etc taking it into 2013 and 2014.
Labour
Ed Miliband will remain leader throughout 2012, despite disappointing poll ratings and what looks like it could be for Labour a disappointing result in the London mayoral contest.
Apologies in advance if all or some of this proves to be wrong. And have a good Christmas!
Catch Gary’s blogs on Twitter: @GaryGibbonBlog
There are 8 comments on this post
My predictions: 3m unemployed; An Olympic black-out;Referendum in the Autumn;Tesco bids for rival supermarket chain;New global health scare. Ugh!
And a good Christmas to you and all at C4News.
2012 is already looking bloody. My pension up 5% but gas/electricity up 25% and then there’s trains and food.
Time to pull the belt in a little more, methinks – unless of course you are Cameron and co.
Please don’t let the Treasury run defence policy. they’ve already made a mess of all the other policies they’ve interfered in & failed to do their day job – managing the economy. What were they doing in 2005-8? Running every other government department rather than doing their job.
Don’t worry, Philip, if Frau Merkel has her way, the Fourth Reich will soon be running everything…..
It will be worse…
Euro/Europe – a few EU members will plan to leave Euro
Economy – we will probably move to the boundary of a global depression.
Housing – residential values will take a steep dive.
Unemployment – 3.5 unemployed by end of 2012 Gradutes and other young will become more poltically aware due to their inability to get a job. Lots more unrest, but politically motivated.
Labour – Milliband will go by end of year. Ineffectual leadership. Labour must do something in 2012.
Gary,
We all know it will get worse. The politicians have neither the ideology or the courage to take on the bankers. If anything, they will help the looting to continue.
There’s still a long, long way to go to change, never mind revolution. As Trotsky said, “Revolution only happnes when there’s no other way out.” We aren’t at that point yet, as the so-called Arab Spring discovered.
Meantime, there will be loads of opportunities for satire and humour, mainly at the expense of the Cleggies. You couldn’t make up stiff faced, crooked mouthed Danny Boy Alexander if you tried. Or fail to laugh at Saint Vincent trying to justify the unjustifiable. Or feel contempt for Cleggy himself as he settles for a mess of power potage.
New Labour will continue to betray every single principle they were founded on.
The Tories will be what they have always been, a gang of hypocritical Uriah Heeps and Scrooges with the morals of a guinea pig and the social conscience of Hermann Goering.
All in all, they create the kind of society we let them get away with.
Dont beat about the bush…. Tell ‘em straight!
Good post.
Happy holidays to all.
In 1314 the 24th June,
King Eddie says were off to steal the stone of Scone…
SNP will not miss the opportunity to capitalise on 700th aniversary of battle of Banockburn for their referendum.