5 Jun 2013

5 or so days in May 2015

In his book on Labour’s walk-on part in the coalition’s formation in 2010, 5 Days in May, Lord Adonis makes the point that those 5 days were an existential moment for David Cameron.

If he failed to get into No. 10 in that brief window “his own survival as party leader” was in the balance. Most agree that David Cameron showed speedy judgement and light-footedness in that political episode and he may need it again if he wants to hold on to his leadership in 2015.

So, of course, might the other two main party leaders. Elections could come to be seen as the light starter before the meatier political main course of post election wrangling and bloodshed.

Several Tory MPs talked to me recently about how they find it difficult to see how David Cameron carries on as leader much after polling day in 2015. Few confidently predict he can win outright. If he retains the position as largest party but without a majority he’ll have failed to win a second time. His critics will form and attack, so the argument goes.

They won’t trust him to run a minority government and they won’t let him go into coalition with the Lib Dems, the theory continues.  (There’s a separate argument that the Tory manifesto could have so many red lines – especially around European issues – that coalition with the Lib Dems is unachievable.)

Counter to that argument, one Tory PPS told me he thought Tory MPs confronted with 5 years in the wilderness or coalition would choose coalition, buckle down, keep Cameron and forget their current bravado.

All of which is speculation about hypothetical a long way off … but it’s a conversation you can hear unprompted around Westminster. It is also one reason why you see quite so many articles sizing up the leadership potential of Philip Hammond, Theresa May, Michael Gove and others.

We will hear more about the longevity prospects of political leaders in the run-up to the election. One MP said he could imagine a scenario in which all 3 party leaders are replaced within days of the 2015 election. But it’s David Cameron’s chances of surviving 2015 that get talked about most right now and it’s his own MPs talking about that.

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