Clegg’s alarm clock appeal contained an uncosted £11bn tax cut
Any of the concerned “alarm clock” Britons listening to the Deputy Prime Minister this morning may well have felt comfort at the announcement of a £700 tax cut by the end of Parliament.
In Nick Clegg’s own words on the Today programme: “We are going to put £200 back in the pocket of every single basic rate taxpayer from 5 April onwards, and by the end of this Parliament it will be £700, as we move towards this central pledge of making sure that no one pays any income tax on the first £10,000 they earn.”
Hurrah! the legions of alarm-clockists cried into their Corn Flakes, except it’s not quite as easy as that.
The first bit of that sentence is fine, it arises from a rise in the personal allowance announced in the Budget to £7,475, which will cost about £4bn per year. The second “by the end of this Parliament it will be £700″ is a massive multi-billion tax cut which is uncosted in the public finances.
The cost of this move? £11.5 billion per year by 2015. Uncosted in our public finances, but which Nick Clegg wants to take credit for in New Year interviews.
And you can add that to the deficit. Government ministers would rightly ridicule Alan Johnson for doing the same, I can’t understand the acceptance of this.
It is true that the Coalition Agreement mentions the £10,000 figure, but only as a “longer term policy objective”. The Treasury confirmed to me today that only the first £200 had been costed in the public finances.
I am also rather bemused around the claims about this £200 tax cut. It is almost as egregious as the worst abuses of Gordon Brown’s abacus. Brown claimed to have cut basic rate income tax in 2007 to 20p, when actually almost no-one benefitted because it was entirely paid for by doubling (not abolishing) the 10p rate. It was a tax reform not a tax cut. And most economics journalists heaped scorn on him.
Likewise, boasting about a £200 tax cut costing £4billion a year when you have paid for it by increasing VAT on most of the same people by up to £13 billion a year seems a little absurd. 23 million basic rate taxpayers will clearly pay far far more in extra VAT than they will gain from the £1,000 increase in the income tax threshold. At the very least this is tax reform, not tax cut.
Brutally put, Nick Clegg appears to have forgotten that alarm clock Britons will still be paying more for VAT on their timepieces.
And there’s one other more speculative factor too. If the DPM didn’t just mis-speak about the certainty of the £10,000 move, then in order to keep the policy affordable, the benefit will have to be “neutralised” for higher rate taxpayers. This year it will be achieved by a real terms lowering of the 40p threshold too. This pushes more people in to higher rate tax, and crucially means more people losing their child benefit. If this year’s approach was repeated the threshold for losing your child benefit could be pushed down to £39,000-ish, and see hundreds of thousands more losing thousands of pounds.
And, of course, I have not even mentioned that it is specifically this threshold-raising policy that drives some of the more unpalatable (for Lib Dems) results of the winners and losers tables, so beloved by Nick Clegg. (And, amusingly, the Conservative election unit issued a four page rebuttal of this policy partly for this reason).
So, in his attempt to appeal to our alarm clock instincts, the DPM either mis-spoke, or he told the truth, in which case he appears to have substantially widened the deficit.
Perhaps he is relying on us all being on snooze.


There are 20 comments on this post
Faisal, it is not as clear cut as you make it out here.
Please remember that tax cuts don’t not automatically result in an increase in the deficit in much the same way that tax rises do not always result in an increase in the gross tax revenue:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19d6e46c-cd97-11df-9c82-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AeDBtxhJ
A relevant example would be if cutting tax makes it more competitive for individuals to work rather than continue to receive state benefits this has a positive impact on the reduction of the deficit.
Work at what?
Hadn’t anyone told you? Despite the 500,000 jobs that are going in the public sector, and the fact that there simply are not enough jobs to go around, the private sector will magically create new jobs to take up the slack. And all this despite the knock-on loss of revenue to the private sector from the public sector cuts.
If only we could understand how the magic of private sector growth in a contracting economy works we’d be able to understand why the exact opposite has always happened whenever and wherever these policies have been persued.
The DPM may want to increase the threshold to £10,000, But there is a difference between having the ability and wanting to increase the personal allowance. I’m sure the chancellor would have a slightly different approach if asked about a £10,000 allowance.
The reality is that the treasury decides on tax policy with input from the cabinet and treasury officials.
Faisal,
Well, it isn’t the first time CamClegg “misspoke” is it……….
There are lies, damned lies, and then there is CamClegg.
It is a combination of Ali Bongo and Tommy Cooper without the fun.
Raising the tax threshold to £10,000 was central to the coalition agreement, because it was one of the four core Lib Dem commitments (unlike, say, tuition fees). It’s not really a surprise that Clegg wants to take credit for it now. It was one of his big gains. Of course, the wheels will start to come off pretty quickly if it is not achieved. It’s definitely worth asking why it hasn’t been costed (my hunch would be they’re betting quite a lot of the farm in an improvement in receipts before 2015) but it’s strange to go all mock-indignant about Clegg talking it up.
Also, your VAT point is a bit questionable, because (a) all parties would have raised VAT (b) although it proportionately hits the lowest paid more, they still have to *choose* to pay standard rate VAT. Nobody gets to choose how much income tax they pay, and (c) using only these two taxes as a point of comparison doesn’t tell you much about where the overall direction of taxation is going under the coalition. CGT has been raised, the Tories’ IHT reduction quashed (for now) and there have been rather tentative beginnings of an anti-avoidance package. The overall notion of wealth taxes up, income taxes down is a…
“(a) all parties would have raised VAT” ??!!
Someone’s forgetting the Tory VAT bombshell campaign by err..
Why is anyone surprised? This Yo, Yo coalition do everything on the hoof scribbling on the back of a ‘fag packet!’ (The back of an envelope would have a tad more detail).
Promises are simply words to be jettisoned at the first fence. The ‘quick fix’ rolled out a few days before the vote on hiking the student fees, seems to be totally unworkable.
The whole country is heading for disaster the losers are the old, the poor and the infirm. Whilst the rich buy more porches, 197% more Rolls Royce cars, and the likes of Tiffany’s make more money than ever.
The rich in the form of the bankers will get their billions of bonuses for simply doing their jobs, whilst the poor have all their benefits, their libraries, their NHS services slashed.
Herr Klegg is no better than the Kapo’s in the WW2 camps, when his masters chose he will go the same way they did.
To me its all a big con, with Cam and Clegg trying to make themselves look like they know how to run the country, they should be signed for a stand up puppet act.
“Well give you this, but well take more than we give without you knowing” and why you ask because we can”
When are we going to get another hero like guy fawkes???
I was reading the Yorkshire Evening Post on saturday 8th jan and there was a letter in there stating that America has only 430 “Government Officials” now thats one big country, we have way more than that and are a hell of a lot smaller.
All they are doing is moving figures putting big ones where small ones should be and vice versa.
Then you look at cuts in the north to cuts in the south and that is astonishing, one council is not even touched which is ridiculous.
Raising the tax threshold leaves lower and middle income families £200 better off, according to Clegg, yet the VAT bomb which they helped to detonate will cost the average family more than double that at £389. So it’s a case of give with one hand, and pummel you in the face with your alarm clock with the other.
Faisal – some of your claims are also doubtful:
“23 million basic rate taxpayers will clearly pay far far more in extra VAT than they will gain from the £1,000 increase in the income tax threshold”
To lose more from the 2.5% rise in VAT than you get from a £200 income tax cut you’d have to spend £9600 a year on VAT-rated goods. That’s £800 a month, over and above rent/mortgage, food, heating, water rates and public transport(all of which are unaffected by the VAT rise).
Yes the VAT rise balances income tax cuts, but it is a progressive tax because it excludes essentials and is paid more by high earners / spenders. And you have a choice about how much you spend on VATable stuff. We don’t all need a fancy new alarm clock Faisal!
I don’t know anybody who has a choice about buying toilet paper, washing powder, soap, shampoo, household cleaning products, clothes and shoes for teenagers who are in adult sizes by the age of 13 and on and on goes the list.
Godwin’s law in 5 posts. That’s an impressive achievement.
When the next election starts to get close there will be two choices – up tax threshold to £10k and help Clegg get re-elected or kill-off the 50% tax band and get the Conservatives back in power. So what do people thing Gideon will do ?
And Clegg’s main problems are staying Lib Dem leader t the moment. His lies and deceit have cost his party badly and support has plummeted. If he can talk about something that will happen in future he thinks we are stupid enough to believe it has happened and he is maybe not so bad. But we are not stupid and have experienced his deceit too often already. Come next election we will be getting “Coalitions mean compromise” and “after the mess Labour left us …” and how he did the best that they could (whilst Ashcroft, Green et. al. take more and more without paying taxes the rest of us have to (although they can afford to and we cannot). Hearing Clegg explain why he has broken promises is no longer even funny as he is just to predictable (like hearing a joke for the hundredth time).
You confuse individuals with families, Richard. Each person earning more than £7500 pa will benefit by £200 from the rise in the threshold, so for a family with two earners that’s £400, not £200.
But many families do not have two earners Simon, not to mention that a third of families in Britain are headed by a single-parent. And neither is the VAT increase the only way those families will lose out on the rise in their personal tax allowance. The cut to the families element of the child tax credit will cost the average family £565 pa, childcare support in working tax credit some £465 pa, child benefit cut for higher earners £1,056 (for one child), EMA £ 1200. Some pummelling I’d say.
And of course it also has to be noted that the rise in the personal tax allowance is actually regressive as middle earners benefit more from it than lower earners, thereby widening the inequality gap.
Increased NI Contributions are being used to pay for any raising of Personal Tax Allowances. The advantage of using NIC is that neither Clegg nor Cameron will pay any NIC on their own substantial investment incomes.
As inflation devalues wages, the value of the “£10,000 tax free” becomes worth less and less over this Parliament.
Moreover, this VAT and allowances controversy serves to distract from the lowering of Corporation Taxes from 28% to 24% that will greatly boost the incomes of the highest income groups. [Does it distract? Well, no one else has mentioned it here].
Truth is, the Lib-Dem & Tory’s Overall Objective is to further re-balance taxation onto the incomes of middle and low earners, and to relieve taxes from the highest incomes.
Simples!