Private sector jobs hit by growing pains
The claim
“It’s positive news that the economy continues to grow, that jobs are being created – half a million jobs in the private sector in the last year…”
Chancellor George Osborne, speaking to C4 News’ Faisal Islam, 26 July 2011
The background
A few alarm bells went off in the Channel 4 newsroom yesterday when the Chancellor flagged up jobs growth as the silver lining to some rather gloomy GDP figures.
In November, George Osborne told the Commons that private sector job creation would “far outweigh” the job losses in the public sector.
The public sector is expected to lose 370,000 jobs over the next five years, but the government hopes this will be offset by a growth in the private sector of 1.3m.
Half a million jobs in the last year sounds like a good start. But is Mr Osborne telling us the whole story, or is he – as charged by Ed Balls – a Chancellor who is in “total denial”?
The analysis
Over the last year, private sector jobs are up 520,000 against public sector losses of 143,000, according to headline figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
So broadly, it would seem that the growth in the private sector is on course to more than offset the slide in the public sector.
But look a little closer, and the data shows that 324,000 of these jobs – 62 per cent – were created in the six months between March and September 2010.
In the six months to March 2011, the UK’s private sector added just 196,000 jobs – accounting for 38 per cent of Mr Osborne’s feted half a million.
What’s more, in the year to the end of May the number of people in part time jobs rose by 16.8 per cent, or 181,000.
And the vast majority of this rise – 120,000 people or 66 per cent – came on stream from September 2010. They listed their reason for taking part time work as: “could not find full-time job”.
The verdict
It strikes FactCheck as rather odd that Mr Osborne would boast about job creation in the private sector.
Since September growth in the private sector jobs market has slowed significantly.
It was running at 1.4 per cent between March and September 2010 – before the Chancellor’s spending review. But in the following six months, from September 2010 to March 2011, growth slowed to 0.8 per cent.
And all the while, part-time work has jumped up 17 per cent in the last year – 7 per cent in the last quarter alone – specifically because people couldn’t find full time jobs.
Mr Osborne gets a Fact for the headline figure, but if we were Chancellor, we wouldn’t be making a song and dance about jobs just yet.
By Emma Thelwell
There are 10 comments on this post
Surely what George is doing is no different to any politician – flag up whatever statistics (no matter how broad, vague or dodgy) support your point of view, while steadfastly refusing to have anything to do with any statistics that claim otherwise.
I’m reminded of the famous quote by George Canning: “I can prove anything by statistics except the truth.”
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But of course if you were Chancellor then you would certainly be making a ‘song and dance’ about the figures because as you must know Osborne is first and foremost a politician and therefore he uses any stat to make his policy look good. You must realise that most people will not be bothered to find out the truth of Osborne’s claims , all they will remember is that he quoted that the private sector has ‘created’ half a million jobs. It will not matter to him that a significant proportion was created before September last year or that subsequently another significant proportion are part time. It is good that your website has challenged the veracity of his claims, I just wish that more people were aware that he has been a little disingenuous with the actual facts.
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It must really hurt you to have to say it’s a fact when every part of you wants to believe it’s not.
So there are more jobs in the private sector than have been lost in the public sector, but you still want to try twisting this to be a negative.
Also, 120,000 are in part-time jobs but who would prefer full-time. This still leaves 400,000 who that statement doesn’t apply to – why didn’t you highlight that positive more?
Also, in the last six months the “slow growth” in the private jobs market has added “JUST” 196,000 jobs. Compare that to how many jobs were lost over TWELVE months in the public sector – 143,000. So in 6 months, 37% more jobs were created than were lost over the course of an entire year.
Yes, I’ve no idea why the Chancellor would want to make a song and dance about that.
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The problem is perhaps less that he tries to put the best case, but whether he actually believes what he’s saying. If he does, we’re in for a rough ride. If he knows it’s just PR, fine. But wouldn’t it be nice (& probably do him more good in the long run) if he actually told it as it is without trying to use misleading statistics. The arguments for the present economic course are reasonably strong & the alternatives can be argued against with credibility. So why not be honest & deal with the issues head on rather than appearing to deny there’s a problem. All it does is continue the drip drip away of his credibility.
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@ Teresa – You’re saying George Osborne is being disingenuous with the facts – how is that? His claim was that over half a million jobs have been created in the last YEAR. He didn’t say six months, he didn’t say that job creation has been evenly produced over the last year so I don’t really get how that’s disingenuous, when it’s completely true and not misleading. Why does it matter that more jobs were created before September than after?
If Ed Balls was Chancellor, are you seriously telling me that you’d be saying exactly the same thing as you are?
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But how much of that jobs growth includes jobs that are taken by the flood of migrants from the EU…?
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Amazing that you manage to twist a fact and insinuate something else, just for some free hits from Twitter?
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Debate is now whether the growth in ‘numbers employed’ alongside static GDP means that labour productivity is falling? A fall partly fuelled by the entirely pointless drive to hobble our 400+ years old financial services industry.
Your useful addition to the debate suggests that the ‘falling productivity’ also encompasses a shift to short-time working. Workers who’re put on <20 work hours a week will produce less than before.
Moreover, I wonder how accurate the ONS's short-time working numbers really are? They may only be based on survey data, not hard facts.
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Be fair the government has managed to see one area grow since they have been in power – the use of misleading truths to try and fool the electorate.
And coming after Tony Blair, that’s some achievement.
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Anybody who believes what politicians say, are dellusional to the extreme and are acting irresponsibily without respect to logic reason and common sense.
Usually the picture is the reverse to what they want you to see, through their deception and their legal fraud which they are allowed to get away with. Because no one is willing and able to hold them to account we are reaping the effects that is evidently dangerous.
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