Johnson: 83 per cent of asylum cases not genuine?
The claim
“The Liberal Democrats… would allow asylum seekers to work, which would be a fundamental mistake given that 83 per cent of asylum seekers are found not to have a genuine claim.”
Alan Johnson, home secretary, BBC Politics Show, 25 April 2010
The background
The idea that hordes of “bogus asylum seekers” are trying to get into the UK has generated many a tabloid headline over the past decade.
The government draws a line between refugees and those coming here for economic purposes by preventing asylum applicants from working in all but exceptional circumstances.
But the Lib Dems want to reduce spending on benefits by letting asylum seekers find paid work after two months, regardless of whether their case has been approved.
This would, Johnson said, be a “fundamental mistake” – given that 83 per cent of asylum seekers turn out not to have a genuine reason for seeking sanctuary in the UK.
That’s a strikingly high figure – but is it correct?
The analysis
According to the latest Home Office stats, 73 per cent of the 24,550 initial asylums rulings in 2009 were refusals. That’s 10 percentage points lower than Johnson suggested, and in 2008 it was even lower – 68 per cent.
Technically, only 17 per cent of the cases last year were granted asylum – permanent refugee status according to a UN convention – corresponding to the home secretary’s 83 per cent figure.
But a further 10 per cent of cases were granted temporary humanitarian protection or discretionary leave to remain – meaning the government thought they had good reason to stay in the country.
These initial figures still don’t tell the whole story – there’s also an appeals process, and the Lib Dems argue the strict system means many genuine cases are turned down first time round.
In 2009, there were around 15,000 asylum appeals (not necessarily relating to the same cases as the 2009 refusals figure). Of these appeals, 4,150 were successful, meaning the eventual number of asylum cases refused would be lower than the number of initial refusals.
A Labour spokesperson told FactCheck: “Home Office figures confirm that 83 per cent of asylum seekers were not granted refugee status in 2009.”
The verdict
Alan Johnson uses the harshest measure of a successful asylum claim to attack the Lib Dem’s policy of allowing asylum seekers to work.
His 83 per cent figure ignores 10 per cent of asylum claims which were granted leave to stay in the UK on humanitarian or discretionary grounds – making it hard to dismiss these as not genuine.
He also ignores the cases subsequently found to have genuine merit on appeal – just over a quarter of those that make it through to an appeal tribunal.
That’s not to dispute that the majority of asylum claims are rejected. But given the context in which Johnson cited the statistic and the need to be careful about the way figures are presented on such an emotive subject, we rate his claim fiction.
There are 6 comments on this post
I am astonished that you dismiss Alan Johnson’s response to the Liberal Democrat’s manifesto pledge to give all illegal immigrants within the UK amnesty even though he was in eror by a mere 10%.
If the true figure for disingenuous claims for political asylum is nearer 73% (even though only 17% were granted asylum meaning that Alan Johnson was technically not in error!) that seems to me still too high a figure for the Liberal Democrats to even consider agreeing to grant amnesty to as that would still mean that 73% of people seeking refuge in the UK should (a) not be allowed to stay and (b) would be staying (regardless of the veracity of their claims for political sanctuary) if the Liberal Democrats have their way.
The UK is a soft touch already and the velvet touch of the Liberal Democrats would make the UK even more of a soft touch if, heaven help us all, they achieve even a toehold in governing the UK through some shady posr-election deals with Labour or the Conservatives.
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This theme I waited. In what all problem consists? Who seeks asylum? When the politician, the businessman or other outstanding figure is at top of peak of the glory, well-being, pleasure of a life. he forgets everything, at him all feelings of danger, a reality, respect and reverence vanish. he overlooks, betrays all foundations of morals of decency of the relation to our traditions. But when there is a danger he there and then recollects, that there is a queen, there is a house where it is possible to run, varies as a chameleon, and swears fidelity and fidelity.
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This is the same Johnson who mocked science and rationality in the commons? The same 19 year postal worker who was the only Govt minister who could not comment on the postal strike. Endorsed by idiots and the flat earth society everywhere.
Is he really their next leader? Another reason not to vote for them.
Loathsome.
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How is this figure relevant to a 10 year amnesty anyway? That policy would encourage no one and frankly accords with reality. Like drugs Johnson is sticking to a legalistic line that ignore reality – just cos you make something illegal it’s not the same as doing something about it.
What percentage of these people who Johnson has identified (many of whom if they they are not minor celebrities on reality shows) get sent back to places like Zimbabwe, Iraq and Afghanistan which hardly makes the original claim false.
Probably well under half get sent back. It does not mean someone’s claim was not genuine because it was rejected just that we did not accept it.
Johnson chooses the most reactionary semantics to spread fear about an almost unrelated policy.
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I dont know two years ago Alan Johnson himself was in favour of amnesty when he was a candidate for dupty prime minester,now when there is general election he has a deferent policy totally against it ,and also since he became home office minister he has deported thousands of afghan reffugees back to afghanistan most of them already killed or the way they are treated by uk border force and afghan officials the were recruited by talibans,these vanruble 100% victim of torture from both side in home country and now by civilised nation.its a huge shame .
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