FactCheck Q&A: How many migrants are on the dole?
The background
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Employment Minister Chris Grayling and Immigration Minister Damian Green flagged up some new research from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) on the nationality of benefit claimants.
The report estimates that there are 371,000 people claiming benefits in Britain who were non-UK nationals when they registered for a National Insurance number after arriving in this country.
In a radio interview, Employment Minister Chris Grayling denied he was “scaremongering” about Britain’s benefits system but added:”There’s a lot of talk about it being a magnet for other parts of the world…what I’m very keen to prevent is benefit tourism.”
What do the figures actually show?
Of the 5.5 million people of working age who are currently claiming benefits, 371,000 are foreign-born. That’s 6.4 per cent of the total number of people on benefits.
That means 6.6 per cent of working age non-UK nationals currently get a state handout, as opposed to 16.6 per cent of British nationals.
DWP took a random sample of 9,000 people from the 371,000 – only choosing those from outside the European Economic Area – and found that most (54 per cent) had become British citizens since arriving here. A further 29 per cent had been granted indefinite leave to remain.
Three quarters of people in the sample were traced by the UK Border Agency. Some 98 per cent of those were found to have the right immigration status consisting with claiming benefits legitimately.
What don’t the figures show?
They don’t tell us how many of the estimated 371,000 have paid their own way.
The number includes people who entered the country as long ago as 1975, and it cover some benefits, like Jobseekers’ Allowance and Employment and Support Allowance, which are sometimes “contributory”.
In other words, in some cases they are only payable to people who have built up a minimum level of National Insurance contributions through work.
So some of the 371,000 might have made substantial contributions to the exchequer through tax and National Insurance deductions for many years, and only claimed benefits for a short time.
How many people are in this position? DWP doesn’t know. A spokesman said: “Separate figures for income and contributory based elements are not available.”
It’s not even the case that those 371,000 people are all claiming “out-of-work” benefits, contrary to several press reports.
In other words, some of the people claiming these benefits may be doing some work. You can work 16 hours a week and still claim Jobseekers’ Allowance, for example, and you can earn up to £100 a week after tax and still get Carer’s Allowance.
So some of these 371,000 people could be contributing to the Exchequer through tax and National Insurance while they are claiming some benefits, offsetting the burden on the state.
How many? DWP doesn’t know. A spokesman told us: “The data sets don’t allow us to identify how many cases this might be happening in.”
Are large numbers of migrants getting benefits they’re not entitled to?
There’s no evidence of that here. Some 2 per cent of the 9,000 sample (180 people) could be defrauding the taxpayer. But that hasn’t been proved yet.
On the other hand, there is a question mark over a total of 27 per cent of the sample (including those who couldn’t be traced). Mr Grayling says more work needs to be done to get to the bottom of how many benefits cheats might be in the sample.
Are more migrants claiming benefits than ever before?
Not according to these DWP figures, which show the number of overseas nationals who register for a national insurance number every year and then go on to claim benefits within six months.
Just over 26,000 people fell into that category in 2009/10, the latest year for which figures are available.
As a percentage, that was a slight increase on the year before (4.6 per cent compared to 3.7), but far less than the 43,000 people or 12.5 per cent who were signing on within six months of getting their national insurance number in 2002/03.
The percentage has increased since a low of 2.9 per cent in 2006/07 and 2007/08, presumably reflecting rising unemployment since the start of the economic downturn.
Is there evidence of “benefit tourism”?
If we’re talking about people coming to Britain who don’t have any intention of finding work and want to live off benefits instead, there’s nothing to back that up either.
In fairness to Mr Grayling, he admitted as much himself, saying: “We’ve yet to establish the full picture. It may be that there isn’t a problem right now.”
If large numbers of people were coming here with the intention of staying on benefits for long periods, we would reasonably expect that to show up in a long-term study. Do foreign-born claimants tend to remain on the dole for longer than other groups?
DWP doesn’t know. A spokesman said: “This is a snapshot piece of analytic work. Data tracking benefit durations over time is not available.”
As we pointed out in a previous FactCheck, benefit rules, strengthened by the government’s own recent reforms, are supposed to make it impossible for anyone to claim benefits for long periods without making an honest effort to find work.
Dr Scott Blinder from Oxford University’s Migration Observatory told FactCheck the high proportion of people with British citizenship or leave to remain could be a sign of how tough the rules already are.
Most migrants have to wait for substantial periods of time before they get to claim benefits. Many have to wait for years for the privileged immigration status that entitles them to DWP payouts, making “tourism” is an unlikely scenario.
By Patrick Worrall
There are 9 comments on this post
Given all the uncertainties of the data & the fact that DWP lack so much information that could help to explain the figures & their context, what are Grayling & Green up to? This looks like highly selective use of evidence to bolster their right-wing credentials and play to people’s prejudices. What is even more despicable is that in their heart of hearts they know there’s virtually nothing they can do about it – short of leaving the EU. Is that the game plan?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Yet again, Government is not listening to the electorate re immigration and its impact on the taxpayer.
Unless the DWP start keeping detailed data re migrants and the benefits they claim, then the lack of clarity will only reinforce the myth that migrants are seeing and using the UK as a benefits haven with no intention of working.
The government are shooting themselves in the foot by not keeping accurate records of the financial impact of immigration.
The BNP and others will take advantage of this lack of clarity and milk it to the hilt, so that instead of the electorate seeing the true impact of immigration as presented by government statisitcs they will cling onto the myths of those who seek another political agenda and are willing to distrupt community relations in order to achieve their goals.
Co-alition Gov,please get cracking and keep track of migrants so that we the electorate have a true record of how migration from the EU and beyond is affecting our UK economy.
It is hard to do a Factcheck on the impact of immigration when the facts are not being kept!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
The reason why ID cards were issued to immigrants was so that a record could be kept of their benefit & NHS claims. As well tracking migrants who might over-stay.
Pity ID cards were cancelled by our ‘far-sighted’ coalition, isn’t it?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Statistics are very good to prove points. When it is wrongly analysed, it would lead to wrong impressions just as the case under review. Piecemeal statistics as revealed above does help issues at all…….The whole picture should be brought to light please.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Wonder how many UK citizens are claiming benefits in other countries?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
If you pile up all benefits , surely more than EU citizens claiming benefits in the UK .
If the government wants to give it a go at the benefits cheaters why don’t they have a look at all the Brits living abroad and claiming incapacity benefits that nobody checks ?
It is known as ” a wheelchair for 20 “.
The guy comes to his local council to have a statement signed that he is using s wheelchair because he cannot walk.
The local guy doesn’t care about it so he signs the paper.
The beneficiary goes back home and passes the wheelchair to somebody else and goes jogging .
Thousands are doing it.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
This is only political propaganda for a government trying to win votes using arguments based on the traditional British values : Xenophobia , Racism and Selfishness .
But it is only helping the UKIP to jump on the problem taking Poland as an example.
Obviously they take Poland because there is more Polish workers in the UK than English workers in Poland and job seeker’s benefits are much higher. They simply forget that in the all EU there is more English workers than EU workers in the UK and that in many countries job seeker’s benefits are higher than in the UK .
Not to mention the thousands of British pensioners in Spain who enjoy council tax benefits since the value of the Pound has been reducing their pension.
As usual government rubbish to distract people from the sad reality of the British economy.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Talking about benefit, why my husband and I are not allowed to work? We have 4 Irish nation children and we would like to work or set up business, to pay tax and to support our children but government stopped us from doing just that. They dont understand how hard life is without any income. My whole family is in crises. We not only not allow to work or set up business but also no recourse of public fund.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
My understanding is that if you come to this country there are already restrictions in place to stop you claiming benefits straight away. Am I wrong?
I am concerned if people have an issue with people who have lived in this country for some years claim benefits. I don’t see the relevance of including people who came here as long ago as 1975.
The distinction should be whether you have citizenship or a right to live here permanently, whether you have lived here long enough to make a contribution to society, not whether you were born in this country. How many of the England team were born in this country ?
The government could measure how many are claiming benefits who are non-UK nationals and who haven’t clocked up sufficient NI contributions. This would be a useful figure to track.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0