FactCheck: Police job cuts ‘tip of the iceberg’
The claim
“28,000 police jobs could go”
Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO), leaked in The Guardian, March 7, 2011
Cathy Newman checks it out
Politicians love to taunt each other about police numbers, so ACPO’s claims about job losses were immediately seized on by the Opposition. In opposition, the Conservatives always used to delight in telling the last Labour Government that the thin blue line was getting thinner. Now the boot’s on the other foot, and under the Coalition, it’s predicted thousands of officers will go. Fact or fiction?
The background
Most police forces across England and Wales spend around 80 per cent on salaries – so speculation over how many jobs could be on the line has run rife since the Chancellor’s axe carved out police budget cuts of 20 per cent in October’s Spending Review.
£2.1bn must be saved over four years and ACPO now estimates that this will see job losses of 28,000 in the police force. That comprises 12,000 police officers – those with powers of arrest, from Bobbies on the beat to serious crime squad detectives – and 16,000 “civilians” – support staff, from back room penpushers to forensics investigators.
Previous estimates have ranged from the Police Federation’s 40,000 figure back in September, to last month’s prediction of 10,190 frontline job cuts over two years, from Shadow Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper. Ms Cooper’s research was based on the finalised budget plans of two-thirds of the 43 police forces in England and Wales.
With most police budgets now fixed, ACPO’s figures should be the most accurate yet. But are they on the money? FactCheck investigates.
The analysis
ACPO told FactCheck that the 28,000 number was really a “moveable feast”, and that in light of today’s Winsor Review of pay and conditions, it may need adjusting.
“There is no set figure on police cuts. Yes we predict that 28,000 jobs could go – but that is based on current information gathered from police forces. It’s a moveable feast and is still a matter for individual chief constables to decide,” an ACPO spokeswoman told FactCheck.
The Government might have hoped the Winsor Review, an independent review into police pay commissioned by the Home Secretary in October, would give it the answers. But it’s only found £485m of savings over three years – well short of the £2.1bn ministers have committed to.
A Police Federation spokesman told FactCheck that, based on the information out at the moment, they’d roughly agree with ACPO’s estimate. “I’d say 25,000 to 28,000 is the current estimate,” he said. “But that’s the tip of the iceberg.”
Between 5,000 and 7,000 police officers retire every year, he pointed out. So retirement alone could account for at least 15,000 police officers over three years, at most 21,000 – and that’s not including police “civvy” staff. This already outstrips the 12,000 job losses predicted by ACPO, which says its figures are based on the total number of jobs needed to go to meet the government’s cuts target.
By law, police officers can’t be sacked, and the Winsor Review doesn’t believe that should change. But there is now evidence of police forces issuing so-called A19 notices – exploiting a legal loophole and pushing out officers who’ve done their 30 years service and can legally be given the heave-ho. They’re the most experienced, and most expensive, officers. “In the last few months we’ve become aware of seven or eight forces serving ‘A19 notices’ on officers,” the Police Federation told FactCheck.
Policing Minister Nick Herbert wants the police to cut bureaucracy before slicing through the frontline. He said: “We have to deal with the deficit, and police forces can and must make savings, focusing on back and middle office functions like IT and procurement so that frontline services can be protected. But when three quarters of force budgets goes on pay, reform of pay and conditions is also essential to protect police jobs and keep officers on the streets.”
Cathy Newman’s verdict
Tom Winsor is nothing if not punctilious. A lawyer and former rail regulator with a forensic grasp of detail, if anyone could find a way to save money on the police, he could. The problem for the Government though, as it seeks to cut £2.1bn from the police budget, is that Winsor didn’t quite come up with the goods – identifying just £485m of savings from pay and conditions.
That means the government will have to preside over more job losses than it might have hoped. The thin blue line is therefore getting thinner, and the danger for the government is that it’s also getting angry. Will some police be persuaded to join the TUC’s day of action on March 26? Watch this space…
There are 10 comments on this post
Emma/Cathy,
And when police and other cuts finally bite in about one or two years and inevitably the crime rate rises, what do you think will happen?
That’s right, CamClegg will be off on another of their “campaigns against the crime wave.”
Same old ultra right, same old story. Get used to it because that’s your future.
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They are comparing the Police pay to that of “like” emergency services.
When was the last time you saw a fire engine out on routine mobile patrol to stop arsonists or prevent fires?
When did you last see an Ambulance on general mobile patrol?
The police are expected to be performance driven and by hook or crook get the figures the corrupt government want. We bust a gut, going above and beyond the call of duty. We don’t have beds supplied to sleep on night shifts like the aforementioned services, neither do we get an hour per day to Train and keep fit! We are not allowed second jobs either. When do we call for the fire brigade to help us with one of our scenes, or the ambulance because we need to give first aid? Well,both of them always call on and rely on the Police and hardly attend a job without us attending first! We are the first and last at an incident, are abused daily although we are expected to accept it!
Picture a United kingdom with no police service for a week.crime would hit the roof, thefts, robberies, burglaries, murders and rapes. Then consider…Is it worth Alienating the Police force and the rank and file officers who deal with not just crime but your…
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This is merely the first phase. Winsor part 2 is to be released later. In the mean time Hutton will strip the Police of its pensin rights!
Winsor is about making the Police budget for the Olympics more afordable. The real pain for the Police will come after that.
A 20% cut in pay and allowances amounts to a 20% cut in pension also!
The CRTP was devised by labour, and was instead of an across the board pay rise. It is not an allowance it is part of our pay.
Police Officers will most probably now demand the right to strike, or as is being muted the ‘blue flu’.
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Get rid save millions on the unfair rent allowance that some officers get towards their mortgage. Discriminitive and most higher ranking officers getting it. Get the idle police officers with all those powers out of the offices and back on the streets. Where are all the bonuses the press talk about never seen any. There Stripped of there cost of living which was promised every year if the right to strike was taken away. There so busy and classed with other professions but where does other professions not get time to eat, have to stay on 16 hrs or more if job not done, and where does any other profession have to work an extra 30 mins every day on top of there shift for free and lastly ive not heard of any MPs having there pay cut or there allowances totally unfair britian. We would be in a sorry state without the bravely of every officer every time the go on shift, those council pen pushes don’t have a fire extinguisher nearly landing on there head when they go to work like the officers did in the student riots.
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[...] Government over savage job and pay cutsMirror.co.ukPolice chiefs fear 28000 jobs at riskIndependentChannel 4 News (blog) -Daily Mail -HRZone.co.ukall 1,557 news [...]
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Pay freeze (acceptable)
Pay freeze on incremental ladder (perhaps acceptable)
Increase on pension contributions from 11% to 14% (not acceptable but bearable)
NOT ACCEPTABLE:
- Reduction of basic pay by 9% with only a hint of remuneration for working hours between 10pm and 6am at 10% more for those hours only. £1200 for other skills doesn’t come close to making up for the 9% loss and will not be pensionable.
- Reduction in overtime enhancements and attack on Bank Holiday working
- Loss of Competency Related Threshold payments, used to encourage hard work
- Loss of Special Priority Payments for those undertaking difficult or hard to fill posts
The only reason for giving the extra £1200 qualification payments to Public Order trained officers is because the government knows full well that there is going to be civil unrest and will need those officers.
I fully support any action needed to have FAIR pay, not lip service, whetehr that be blue flue days, the right to strike and subsequent action, a protest again in London or working to rule. Let’s stop making the job work through good will. Mine has vanished at the moment!
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People need to know the truth and not the PR pumped out by the government.
Some questions.
Does your job prevent you from having secondary employment & earning more money to support your family?
Does your job place restrictions on your private life when you leave the office?
Can your employer FORCE you to stay on at work & work overtime?
Can your employer FORCE you to work on your day off?
Does your employer have the right to change your work location to anywhere in the County?
Can your employer force you to come back off holiday to fulfil a work commitment?
Do you get paid £11 for a 24 hour period of being on call, not allowed to drink & be no further than 20 mins away from your place of work?
Being a police officer places all of the above restrictions on you . Yes i agree that cuts need to be made, but with the ever increasing demands on us at work and at home i strongly object to having a pay cut in real terms that can see me doing more work for potentially 25% less wage.
As an officer who loves his job am i demoralised, yes. Would i strike, unfortunately Yes. I work an average of 10 hrs a week unpaid overtime, are they at risk of losing my good will, YES
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The ACPO should have no place in a modern so called democracy like Britain, they should be disbanded and the chief constables concerned should be forced to take retirement. If they refuse they should lose their gold plated pensions for misconduct in a public office.
Do a little trolling on the net, lift up a few ACPO and see what vile information you can find out about them I did. They are hated by the rank and file police.
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In these economic times, Police everywhere are starting to feel the crunch. Every government wants to cut spending and budget, and it seems like they are all staring at Law Enforcement with knife in hand.
I used to believe that Police/Fire/Medics had job security. Maybe they have more than the average joe who works in the private sector, but not by much it seems.
We risk ourselves at work, and now risk being unemployed, stripped of benefits, stripped of
some pay, and severely stripped of morale…
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All of us should protest is not fair that some people just live without work because the government want to save some money…we all have the right of work and be hear.
Regards
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