FactCheck: Is the coalition protecting the NHS?
The claim
“Let me just tell him what is actually happening in the health service under this government. Waiting times for outpatients? Down. Waiting times for inpatients? Down. Number of people waiting in total? Down. The number of people waiting for more than a year has been halved under this government. Hospital infections? Down to their lowest level, and mixed-sex wards down by 94 per cent…4,000 more doctors, almost a thousand more midwives and fewer managers.”
David Cameron, 22 February 2012
The background
It was Groundhog Day at Prime Minister’s Question’s today, with David Cameron repeating the same routine he used last week on the NHS.
The government benches chanted along as David Cameron reeled off a list of coalition achievements on patient waiting times and other key performance measures.
At a time when Mr Cameron is on the back foot over the controversial health bill, it may be a crowd-pleaser, but does it pass the FactCheck test?
The analysis
We gave waiting times the full FactCheck treatment last week, but new figures have come out since then.
We now have the stats from December 2011. What do they tell us about the government’s stewardship of the health service?
Not a lot, as it happens.
The average wait between referral and treatment for inpatients was 7.7 weeks in December 2011. That’s down from 8.4 weeks in May 2010, when the Coalition came to power, but that’s an unfair comparison, as the difference is likely to be down to seasonal variation.
Year-on-year, things are virtually static. The average wait for inpatients was slightly longer at 7.9 weeks in December 2010, exactly the same at 7.7 weeks in December 2009 and 7.6 weeks in December 2008.
It’s much the same story for outpatients: 3.8 weeks in December 2011, 4.1 weeks in 2010, 4.2 weeks in 2009 and 4.1 weeks the year before.
On this evidence, Mr Cameron could technically claim that there’s been an improvement in waiting times on his watch, but the difference is pretty marginal.
Of course, average length of wait isn’t the only way to look at this issue. Another key benchmark is the percentage of patients who are treated within 18 weeks of referral, as is their right under the NHS constitution.
The latest figures show that 91.6 per cent of inpatients and 97.2 per cent of outpatients are being treated within 18 weeks. Those numbers are virtually unchanged since the election, when they stood at 92.9 per cent and 98.2 per cent respectively.
Year-on-year, there’s been a marginal fall in the standard over the last three years, but again, the difference is minuscule.
And he’s technically right to say the total number of people still waiting for treatment at the end of a given month is “down”, although barely. There were 2,384,799 people on the waiting list in December 2011 and 2,411,295 in the same month a year before.
What about staffing levels?
As we showed last week, the latest stats show that there were a little over 4,000 more NHS doctors in October 2011 than at the time of the last election.
Since then, a number of readers have pointed out something we failed to mention: it can take up to nine years to qualify as a GP, and 12 years to become a consultant to train a doctor.
So if there has been a surge in newly qualified physicians in the last two years, that must because the last government increased training places.
According to the latest provisional figures, Mr Cameron’s right about the number of midwives being up by just under a thousand too. But that rise isn’t enough to outpace the country’s soaring birth rate, so the ratio of new babies to midwives remains about the same.
The increase is also less than a third of the 3,000 extra midwives David Cameron previously promised. And the Royal College of Midwives says 5,000 full-time equivalent places are needed to meet the government’s own targets on maternity care.
These figures also prove the PM right on managers. There were more than 4,000 fewer managers in October 2011 than in May 2010 (whether that’s cause for celebration is, of course, a matter of opinion).
And yes, incidents of patients being put on wards with members of the opposite sex have fallen very dramatically, from 11,802 in December last year to just 625 in January 2012 – exactly 94 per cent.
As for hospital infections, we’ll defer to the King’s Fund, who say cases of C difficile and MRSA have been falling steadily for two years. Admirable, but not down to the policies of this government.
The verdict
There’s no evidence of significant improvement in NHS waiting times since the coalition came to power – but neither are things in an obvious state of decline.
Ultimately, the figures suggest that the NHS really started to get its house in order on waiting times in 2008, and things haven’t changed much since then. The change of government in 2010 hasn’t made a statistically significant impact either way.
Midwife numbers are up – though by far less than promised – and there are more doctors, but Mr Cameron can’t take the credit for that.
Similarly, the decline of the superbug is a trend that began under Labour and has continued under the coalition.
So Mr Cameron’s right to defend the NHS’s achievements in maintaining high standards for waiting times and in other areas, but wrong, in many instances, to claim the credit for the current government.
By Patrick Worrall
There are 16 comments on this post
Cathy/Patrick,
The figured don’t matter as much as the neocon long term agenda to privatise the NHS in favour of their chums.
It’s a Tory wet dream prompted by the Americans and their neocon pals in Europe.
While it’s important to engage the debate and show up the neocons for what they are it is much more important to expose their long term intentions.
Meanwhile the Tories and their allies will do what they always do on their overall motivation: Lie, lie and lie again. Of all the immoral and crooked Tory propaganda, this is the most sickening hypocrisy of all. They deserve every bit of contempt they get. Nye Bevan was right to despise them.
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While it might true to say that if the number of newly-qualified doctors is up, this is down to the last government training more, but the PM’s quote was about the number in employment – a different matter and something over which governments have more immediate control. The number in employment is less down to supply-side – the number available – than demand – the number trusts are able to employ. Protecting the NHS budget from cuts, as the Tories but not Labour did, increases demand. And as we import many NHS staff from overseas trusts can fill this without waiting for newly qualified docs. Likewise, they can also keep more doctors, who might otherwise retire, move abroad, or leave, in employment.
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I think you should stop bothering to Fact Check this PM on the NHS.
Milipede nailed it when he said no-one believes or trusts Cameron on it anyway.
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If the figures are so low and there are more midwives etc then why change it?
people like me wont be able to afford private health care
do we really want what america has and eventually have to buy health insurance?
the free clinics they have are always jam packed and it will be no different here.
the majority of britain is working class and DONT want this
only someone who has never known money trouble would come up with this rubbish
bring back Labour!
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I have a torn cartilage in my left knee.
I went to the doctor about it just after Easter last year.
Since then, I have had an x-ray (June), an MRI scan (15th July). I saw the Consultant for the first (and only time) on 27th October who confirmed I needed an operation.
This morning I got sent a letter with the date for the operation – 18th May 2012.
I have no idea when the 18 weeks are counted from, as from first visit to my GP and operation (so long as it actually goes ahead) will be well over a year and 30 weeks since I saw the Consultant. Can anybody enlighten me on this magical or do I mean mythical 18 weeks goal?
I don’t believe ANYTHING the Government brags about. Nothing. It’s all sound-bites. Shame on them.
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The Tory-led Govt will never admit that the erstwhile Labour Govt ever got anything right. We all know(?) that Gordon Brown was personally responsible for the bankers screwing up.
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He is right on every count, marginal or not, and this is happening under his government’s watch. He didn’t claim that it was a direct result of his governments policies, the effects of which will take some time to filter through. So why the negative slant to your factcheck? It’s almost as if you are annoyed that he is right!
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As is the case with doctors, you should also take into consideration the time it takes to train a midwife, minimum three years, meaning their rise in numbers was planned by the last government to meet the predicted increase in the birth rate.
The single sex ward has also given rise to new problems, in particular inefficiencies and wastage as reported in the Guardian.
“Cameron’s new ban on mixed-sex wards after a long Daily Mail campaign has made matters far worse. He boasts that mixed-sex wards are now virtually gone. Carol’s hospital trust boasts the same on its front page. She says: “Take rheumatology. People come in for one day for injections for pain, with a session once a month. Now it has to be men one month, women the next. Sometimes there might be just four men, say, and the other places are wasted. Many have to wait two months not one month now.” This is what happens when political gimmickry is put before health need.
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The 2004 NHS plan for E&W introduced ‘choice’ of where treatment could be provided. A euphemism for competition.
Plan was to move hospitals and GPs into a system of fixed payments for each patient/condition treated as compared with leading quartile of NHS providers. Which encourages specialisation and greater efficiency.
It worked for well-managed hospitals & GPs. Laggards ‘encouraged’ to adopt those best practices.
But it took a long time to implement because most NHS centres work at near full capacity – as they still do. That ‘fullness’ promotes complacency about weak productivity growth.
The key point is that all the NHS needs is more of the same drive it has had for seven years now.
Changing the system will not help. But the re-organisation costs and delays will definitely hinder.
Perhaps C4 should compare England’s outcomes with, say, Scotland’s NHS performances since 2004?
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Cameron looked like an idiotic schoolboy who is puffed up with his own belief that he alone ‘knows it all’ today. Ed M accused him of arrogance in ignoring health professionals and insisting what he and Lansley are doing to the NHS is right. Instead of showing a little humility (or humanity!) Cameron merely re-inforced that very accusation by his arrogant statement (first para of this Factcheck blog) delivered in a patronising ‘I am right, listen to me’ manner.
To say he is out of touch is an understatement – I don’t think he has ever been in touch nor can he ever be, so elevated a position he holds – in his own mind. Dreadful man forcing through a new Thatcherism-Xtreme version of life as he sees it from his ivory tower. It is no surprise he claims credit for things that are nothing to do with him whilst blaming anything wrong on everyone else. All con-men make out they are the only ones who can be trusted and he is most surely nothing but a con.
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The increase in the number of doctors isn’t the only time the ConDems have taken credit for the previous administration. They took the credit for the new Overground service linking New Cross and Dalston when it opened in spring 2010. Anyone with any common sense would know it takes a lot longer than a year or two to build lots of new track and expand a tunnel!
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Cathy, Patrick, Emma,
On a seperate subject, please can you investigate the claim that Grayling made:
‘We won’t and don’t force anyone to take a work experience placement.’ – Chris Grayling.
He has repeatedly said that the work program is “entirely voluntary”.
Apparently Page 4 of this DWP report Mandatory Work Activity Official Statistics shows 6 groups of people who are forced – unless DWP have redefined the word ‘mandatory’.
http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/pwp/mwa_feb12.pdf
I would like to know the truth about whether people are being forced to work for their benefits, and under what circumstances.
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The Tories SAID they would protect the NHS but it is now clear that the massive “savings” they are required to make are already causing serious problems.
The O.E.C.D considered that the NHS was one of the most cost effective healthcare systems . It will not stay this way if Camerons corporate raiders get their hands on it.
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The average waiting time figures don’t tell the story you think they’re telling; a reduction is not necessarily a good thing:
http://blog.nhsgooroo.co.uk/index.php/2011/05/prime-ministers-questions/
http://blog.nhsgooroo.co.uk/index.php/2011/05/ignore-median-waiting-times/
Waiting times for patients being treated tell the opposite story to the one you think they’re telling:
http://blog.nhsgooroo.co.uk/index.php/2012/02/pmqs-and-the-truth-about-waiting-times/
To see whether waits are really getting better or worse, you have to look at the waiting list itself, and your conclusions are broadly correct. But in addition, the number of very-long waiters is coming down sharply (which is excellent news):
http://blog.nhsgooroo.co.uk/index.php/2012/02/latest-on-18-week-waits-better-in-december/
-Rob Findlay
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It comes down to this. If you’re having a heart attack or a stroke you want to be sent immediately to the nearest hospital – you don’t want the local GP consortium buggering about working out where’s cheapest.
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Whilst I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments, I DO NOT agree with your analysis.
1.If I had a heart attack, I’d want to be sent to the best place for that emergency to be dealt with. Especially if the event took place in Yorkshire. How do I know which that is?
2.Maybe that would be to my local GP clinic or to some specialist unit much further away?
3. Under the current regime (2004 NHS Plan), all hospitals are trying to get their ‘prices’ down to a comparable level. They are not trying to ‘beat’ each other’s prices.
Travelling in a fully equipped ambulance for, say, an extra 20 minutes to reach an appropriate specialist would likely be optimum.
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