FactCheck: How ‘sensational’ was George Galloway’s win?
“This, the most sensational result in British by-election history bar none, represents the Bradford Spring”
George Galloway, Respect party, 29 March 2012
The background
There’s no denying that booting Labour out of Bradford West – winning by 10,000 votes and overturning a 5,000 majority – was a sensational victory for gorgeous George.
But was it the most sensational ever – or has the excitement gone to Mr Galloway’s head?
FactCheck trawls through the history books to see how he measures up.
The analysis
Mr Galloway won last night’s by-election with 55.9 per cent of the votes, sweeping Respect from fifth place at the 2010 general election to victory with a swing of 36.59 per cent against Labour.
This is a stunning swing, but it’s not the biggest. Two others have pipped Mr Galloway to the post.
In second place comes SNP candidate Winnie Ewing who in November 1967 won the Hamilton seat in Scotland from Labour with a 38 per cent swing.
But the clear victor is Simon Hughes’ career-starting win in February 1983. The Liberal Democrat took his Bermondsey seat with a swing of 44 per cent against Labour.
It’s worth pointing out however, that victorious independents such as Mr Galloway are “rare creatures”, YouGov’s Associate Director Anthony Wells told FactCheck.
And Professor Colin Rallings, an elections expert at Plymouth University, told us it was “unprecedented for a small party candidate to come from nowhere to win”.
Perhaps the only comparable was Dick Taverne’s win in 1973. But his win for Democratic Labour in Lincoln came after he had resigned the seat for which he was elected as a Labour MP.
Beating Labour was a great personal victory for Mr Galloway, but does it tell us anything about Labour’s standing nationally? Probably not. By-elections are too idiosyncratic to shed light on the national picture, said Mr Wells, adding: “It means nothing for the country (as a whole)”.
As for politically significant by-elections, he pointed to the Liberals’ win at Orpington in 1962 as the benchmark for turning the tide politically with a by-election.
The Liberals seized Orpington from the Conservatives in their first by-election victory in four years, with Eric Lubbock’s win boasting a 22 per cent swing.
As the first seat lost by the Conservative government since the 1959 general election, it was a humiliating blow to the Tories.
Mr Wells said: “It marked the re-birth of the Liberals, when they rose from the grave.”
The verdict
Mr Galloway must accept the bronze gong for his victory in Bradford. Simon Hughes holds the current record for the most sensational swing in British history – with a 44 per cent swing against Labour in 1983.
That said, Mr Galloway is a “rare creature” indeed, and it’s quite some comeback.
Update: After publishing this FactCheck, Mr Galloway said in an interview with Channel 4 News: “I don’t think I was exaggerating”.
He went on to clarify his claim, narrowing it down to this: “No party to the left of Labour has ever taken a Labour seat in a period when Labour has been in the opposition”.
And we’ll give him that.
By Emma Thelwell



There are 59 comments on this post
If the local & London elections go badly for Labour, it should mean curtains for Ed M. Every cloud has a silver lining.
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out of interest … where does Martin Bell’s triumph over the odious Hamilton appear? & can someone please at least attempt the same with my current MP – O(how i wish he’d never been)sborne.
Ta Jxx
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In your effort to provide the Labour Party with some comfort you ignore the fact that Galloway represented a party that had come fifth at the previous election. Simon Hughes won for an Alliance that had already topped the opinion polls with over 50% of support and was third in a series of by-election victories since 1981 at Croydon North-West and Crosby and Winnie Ewing’s victory came on top of a nationalist victory in Wales the previous year as well as SNP victories in the local elections of 1967 (including Hamilton).
The only comparable results to Galloway’s would be Martin Bell’s victory at Tatton in the 1997 General Election (although aided by the withdrawal of Labour & Liberal candidates) and the pre-WWII bye-elections at Oxford where the Popular Front anti-appeasement candidate narrowly lost and Bridgwater where he won (aided again by the withdrawal of the Labour and Liberal candidates) .
The victory of the Empire Free Trade candidate at Paddington South in 1931 is another example of a minor party triumphing over the established ones as is the victory of Common Wealth and independent candidates in bye-elections during WWII esp. Maldon (1942) & West Derbyshire…
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George topped them all!
What a win!
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Indeed he did.
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“No party to the left of Labour has ever taken a Labour seat in a period when Labour has been in the opposition”
Maybe not in a bye-election but the Communist candidate Phil Piratin defeated Daniel Fraenkel, the sitting Labour MP, for Mile End in the 1945 General Election which took place after Labour had withdrawn from the Coalition and was again the official Opposition.
So one Fact Check where George does fall down, surprisingly considering that Mile End was part of his former Bethnal Green & Bow constituency.
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GALLOWAY YOU TITAN!
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Galloway rides the Islamic radical wave that is pervading this country. I doubt if a single English inhabitant voted for him.[dare I use that racist word, English, on here ?] Thank God I dont live in that constituency. Allah bloody Akhbar !!
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Steve, are you a devotee of B.N.P. or E.D.L. or may be both? Either way you really must stop casting false aspersions otherwise you come across as “racist” (dare I use that word). Strange how you claim that “Galloway rides the Islamic radical wave” when the “radical” Muslims hate him as much as you seem to. In that respect (no pun intended) you and they are two of a kind and both “pervading this country”, creating problems yet offering no solutions. Let’s see if a B.N.P. or E.D.L. parliamentary candidate will ever be as victorious as Galloway in any English constituency!
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Steve Omara. With your obviously stupid, pathetic, ignorant comments, we’re glad that you don’t live in this constituency. If you did, then you might understand how the current Council and its MPs have been destroying this city through their own selfishness.
From a born and bred white, British, Bradfordian pensioner who amongst thousands of similar voted for GG.
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George Galloway is one of the few politicians that talks sense. congratulations on a fantastic win.
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Nice one, George. Just watched your interview. Can’t stand your politics but you can really put the soi-disant metropolitan media types in their place. Pity they can’t be bothered to report the campaign before polling day then they might be better informed.
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George cannot be described as an independent. He’s an official party candidate. Though whether the Party amounts to much more than him is a subject for debate.
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“I, George Galloway, do not drink alcohol and never have. Ask yourself if you believe the other candidate in this election can say that truthfully”
Funny though Mullah Omar in Talbenised Kandahar procures votes and beat the hell of those who drink with slogans as despoiled and dishonourable as these.
These are telltale signs of expanding tentacles of ‘politics of political Islam’ that is creeping like a malignancy in the pockets of ideological hinterlands of North of England, this is a dark day for British democracy and politics, explo…iting the raw nerve of Islamic solidarity and global Islamic unity garnered enough support for George Galloway in Bradfordistan. Is call of banning alcohol and pork next on Galloways agenda?
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I seem to remember that he was once a member of the famous Soho night spot the Groucho private members drinking club – but perhaps he was tee-total.
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“And Professor Colin Rallings, an elections expert at Plymouth University, told us it was ‘unprecedented for a small party candidate to come from nowhere to win’.”
Err… Dr Richard Taylor of Health Concern taking the seat from Labour in 2001? And then holding it from the Tories in 2005?
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George you are wrong and arrogant as usual Peter Law stood against the official Labour candidate in Blaenau Gwent in the 2005 general election and took 58% of the vote
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But I doubt whether George would regard Law as “to the left of Labour” as he objected to the imposition of a all-women short list. S.O.Davies, a veteran left-winger, also held his seat at Merthyr Tydfil in 1970 as an independent in protest against his deselection but he wouldn’t qualify under George’s definition as he was an independent and not a member of a party “to the left of Labour”.
This also excludes Dick Taverne’s victory at Lincoln in 1973 when he stood as under the banner of “Democratic Labour” (though effectively he was an independent as there was no such party in existence at the time) and the two Liberal/SDP Alliance victories at Bermondsey in 1983 (referred to in the article above) and Greenwich in 1987 since Galloway would never admit, by any stretch of the imagination that either Taverne, Simon Hughes or Rosie Barnes were “to the left of Labour”.
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Labour was also in government, not opposition, in 2005 which also cancels out Dr Taylor’s victory when he took wire forest off Labour in 2001
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Respect what precisely?
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EVERYONE
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IT’S A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES FROM CHANNEL FOUR NEWS
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GG’s so unpredictable hence the result!
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There is nothing more serious than a war and all three parties are at one: fully supporting the current conflicts. Most people support our troops but are against these ‘manufactured’ wars. For many people this is THE main issue. It exposes the hypocricy and ugly mentality of the current crop of politicians. No wonder many voters are saying “plague on both your houses” and voting for George.
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This lady, Cathy,does not like George Galloway, so, all she does was to dismiss his big victory as not important one.
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I’m a Bradford West constituent and I voted for GG simply because I expect him to stand up for Bradford – unlike his predecessor has in recent years – and move the city forward out of the doldrums created by years of inward looking and indifferent local politicians. Not one of the other candidates came over as being able to affect any change and speak up for us. I’m not a fan of Mr Galloway, but I know he’ll push this city into the 21st century and arrest the increasingly subordinate position that the city has degenerated into with its neighbour – Leeds, unlike others either have or could ever do.
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Sorry Cathy; George 1 Cathy 000
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Another news presenter in a long line of news presenters find out the hard way that George Galloway can’t be cornered by cheap shots, bordering on patronising arrogance.
He was perfectly right to cut the interview short – unfortunately a good chance to analyse what really happened in Bradford last night was lost.
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After listening to his interview on Channel 4 I think he probably tops as one of the most opinionated MPs I’ve seen – of course I’m sure he’ll do well in Bradford (especially if he decides to take another vacation in a celebrity Big Brother house instead of dealing with his constituency matters!)
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What an appalling spectacle the channel 4 behind the desk lassie made of herself! Well done. George! What a thicko she was and she was shown up for her ignorance and superficial smugness. Apart from George’s genius rhetoric….just where on earth did Channel 4 news get her from???
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Did you know that out of all the broadcast news rooms Channel Four’s is the most elitist? They are all Oxbridge to a man and women. Public school as well for a lot of ‘em.
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I’m sure there have been more repulsive MPs than George Galloway but I can’t think of many. How could people vote for such an arrogant sh1t?
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Well….I don’t think hes the first or last arrogant shit to be elected, in fact I don’t think attack the messenger rather than the message gets us anywhere.
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GG is the epitome of the disgustingly cynical,self-absorbed,publicity seeking,selfish parasite that has infested our political classes these days.He will hijack any cause, jump on any bandwagon,cosy up to the most appalling butcher as long as it draws attention to GG! Once the publicity from this victory dries up,GG will drop the people of Bradford West like a hot brick, as they will serve no further purpose for the drivel spouting narcissist.
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Congratulations! You win the Golden Gregs Pasty Prize for the most apoplectic post!
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So Simon Hughes and George Galloway have something else in common; the former beat Labour candidate Peter Tatchell with a mendacious, dishonest and homophobic campaign playing to prejudice and giving false hope that he would make a difference. We shall see.
That doesn’t let Labour off the hook, and their arrogance in expecting to win elections without so much as an economic policy. Or leadership. Or conviction.
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I think your coverage of George Galloway’s victory in Bradford this night on the 7pm news was a despicable hatchet job. First you (or somebody called O’Connor?) trashed him with a selection of past clips which focused largely on irrelevant quasi-salacious matters, then when you, Cathy, interviewed him, instead of allowing him the courtesy of speaking for a couple of minutes about the policies which led to his success, pursued him with a Trivial Pursuit on how exceptional his victory was.
Well, Factcheck is a splendid tool, but a waste of time in tbis context. Who cares if it is really the most sensational, or only the third most sensational?? These are not facts, just opinions.
However Harriet Harman earlier was courteously treated and allowed about 2 minutes to waffle away from the point by Krishnan.
Galloway is one of the rare British politicians who has had the courage to defy the Jewish lobby and stand up consistently for human rights in Palestine and Israel … and in the UK.
He deserves a lot better than this. Even the BBC News did better tonight. I hope it is a rare lapse on your part.
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It’s time to get real folks! Respect is a one-person party and Galloway ran in a radicalized constituency. What does that demonstrate? How much influence is he going to have in Parliament and does this really portend a change in the electorate’s views in this country?
The man is the political equivalent of a one-hit wonder.The media are proving even bigger fools than the politicians they report on by giving this item more than the 30-second coverage it deserved
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‘Bradford Spring’ and likening it to an Arab spring. Fair enough,but its strange that Mr Galloway seems to welcome the Arab Springs we have seen in Egypt,Libya and possibly Syria. Where was he when there was an Arab spring in Iraq a few years ago ? When we and the US were involved in the Liberation of the Iraqi people from a dictator. Mr Galloway is very selective. Cathy ,Mr Galloway wasnt too keen to speak to most of the other journalists yesterday either ,when they asked him questions he didnt like,but yet he tries to distinguish himself from the mainstream parties.Maybe when he loses the next election to Labour he will stand in the Shetlands
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Oh dear me…: “an Arab spring in Iraq a few years ago ? When we and the US were involved in the Liberation of the Iraqi people from a dictator”
We actually went there for non-existent WMD. get your facts straight man.
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Unfortunate interview by Cathy Newman…her hate for Gorgeous was so glaring that she seemed to go completely deaf following her own train of venom…well done Gorgeous, once again your cool,basic common sense obliterates the nit picking, patheticvally light fury of the opposition…and congratulations for a truly earth shattering victory, well done….
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Dai Davies Blaenau Gwent by-electiom 2006.
Although he didn’t win the seat from Labour: Peter Law did that in the 2005 GE.
And Labour weren’t in opposition.
That by my count makes 12 MPs to the left of Labour elected in the 20,000+ parliamentary contests since since 1900 (3 CPGB, Victor Grayson, Galloway himself, 3 Common Wealth, Eddie Milne, Bernardette Devlin, Peter Law, Dai Davies)
That none of these 12 before Galloway were elected in a by-election and won a seat from Labour when Labour was in opposition is technically true only because this is a ridiculously narrow category.
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Well, er… thanks for that!
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Channel 4 and what’s her name, this is the mother of all petty journalism.
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Picking a fight with ‘Gorgeous’ George over some point of semantics really made Ch 4 News appear ridiculous.
Although I can see it beat having a serious interview with someone who is a far more substantial politician than the media give him credit for.
And I can’t remember a bye-election victor being treated quite so brusquely by the media.
If nothing else it makes the increasingly predictable British political scene more interesting, surely?
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What it shows is that a free press is an oxymoron.
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I am not a Respect supporter, but I was shocked by what I saw. Cathy Newman’s interview with George Galloway was crass, simplistic and aggressive – a new low for Channel 4 News.
If the editorial staff disagree with my view, perhaps they might ask Cathy Newman like to fact-check this comment too.
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WATCHED THE INTERVIEW..
AND ANYONE WHO DIDNT GO TO THE WORZEL GUMMIDGE
SCHOOL OF INTERCHANGABLE HEADS.
KNOWS
THIS WAS TRASH JOURNALISM FROM CHANNEL 4..
I EXPECT IT FROM SKY NEWS. BBC AND EVEN ITV
BUT IT WAS DISAPPOINTING FROM CHANNEL 4..
WHILE ALL 3 MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES GOVERN
TO THE CENTRE RIGHT. AND ALL BEHOLDEN
TO PLUTOCRATS AND OLIGARCHS
GOREGOUS GEORGE CANNOT BE BOUGHT….
HAVE A LITTLE RESPECT NEXT TIME CHANNEL 4
IF NOT FOR YOURSELVES. THEN JOURNALISM
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I agree that Ms Newman might have spent her very limited time more usefully, rather than by pursuing a trivial pursuit question, on this issue:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upZYfQ2s8TI
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It’s obvious where most of Britain’s media were taking their orders from. But Channel 4 News too?
Shameful.
How many mainstream MPs have half the talent of Galloway? How many have any Integrity, as defined in the Seven Principles of Public Life? Look it up.
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It’s very simple – Cathy Newman was made to look like the stupid, crass time serving corporate media hack that she is. Well Done George.
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Cathy Newman showed her allegiance to the establishment, with the disgust and hate written clearly across her face as she interveiewed the Galloway. When o when will TV news ‘personalities’ ever be unbiased? Channel 4 News should have a really long hard look at their staff and sack them oif they aren’t unbiased. Apart from that Newman got her bottom soundly spanked by the Galloway.
In fact the Galloway is dead right. People are fed up with having no real choice in elections, the ‘democratic trap’ invented so well by the yanks and exported to the UK for their benefit, and at the first sign will vote for someone who says the same before and after the elections – take note Mr. Clegg.
The elite media hate for Galloway is reactionary – how dare this man upset the cart? But the disdain is ours, disdain for little media ‘personalities’ like Newman who are not nearly as clever as they would like to believe.
On yer bike Newman
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Having been the first to complain about the coverage of Bradford/Galloway, I should like to clarify that Cathy’s interview that day struck me as quite out of character with her normal work.
Everybody can have an off day, and I trust that is all it was.
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Byzant – behaving the way Newman did is not ‘having an off day’ – that strikes me as a simply ludicrous comment. Newman’s behaviour was replicated over the ENTIRE UK news network by several interviewers. The common thread among them was the singular important feature which identified the corporate news agenda. I suggest you go to the Media Lens website and look at their latest alert on this subject to learn something useful. Get rid of that naivety you are suffering from.
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When interviewers are rude they should be given short shrift. Well done George.
Perhaps now someone will take on the attorney general for not allowing an inquest into the death of weapons’ inspector Dr David Kelly.
http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/26133
Thanks to all who sign.
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Satisfying to see the interviewer’s rudeness dealt with so efficiently in the video. Galloway’s an amazing guy.
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