FactCheck: Cameron reoffends on private sector job figures
The claim
“There are half a million more private sector jobs compared with the time of the last election”
David Cameron, Prime Minister’s Questions, 19 October 2011
Cathy Newman checks it out
It’s very strange. Most politicians reckon that once bitten by FactCheck, twice shy. Not so the PM. We’ve caught him out on his boast on private sector jobs before but today he was at it again.
He claimed half a million more private sector jobs were created since the election. He’s wrong, and here’s why.
The Office for National Statistics only produces figures on a quarterly basis. And the election fell in May, bang in the middle of the second quarter (April-June 2010).
The latest set of ONS stats show that in the year to the end of June, only 264,000 private sector jobs were created.
So to make his sums add up, David Cameron would need to prove that 236,000 more jobs were landed by people in May and June.
Provisional monthly figures unearthed by FactCheck however show that although an extra 68,000 jobs were added in May, that increase was totally wiped out by the loss of 89,000 jobs in June. And many more jobs – 129,000 – were created in April , while Labour was still in power.
These are “experimental” labour force figures that the ONS produces, but doesn’t put its name to.
Number 10 told FactCheck that it was “standard procedure” to quote the nearest set of quarterly statistics to the general election.
(For further analysis read our previous FactChecks: Cameron slips up on employment figures and Private sector jobs hit by growing pains)
Cathy Newman’s verdict
Since FactCheck first pointed out David Cameron had slipped up on private sector job figures, he’s repeated the claim at least three more times.
Following our blog last month, the Labour leader Ed Miliband wrote to him demanding he return to the Commons to correct himself.
He’s so far declined, and today he compounded the error. Why does any of this matter?
Well, the coalition government has long claimed that private sector jobs growth would “more than offset” the number of public sector jobs being cut.
So far, the private sector is only just offsetting the losses. In the year to the end of June 240,000 public sector jobs were lost, and, as we’ve seen, only 264,000 private sector jobs created.
Analysis by Emma Thelwell
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There are 41 comments on this post
I find it very disappointing when our elected politicians cannot tell us the truth. Either they cannot be bothered to check facts (which is pretty bad given the importance of the information) or they are “just telling lies” (which is equally disgraceful).
Given how much we pay for their PR and spin teams, their special advisers, the civil service, etc., etc. there is absolutely no excuse for such lies and it is time there were rules to prevent politicians treating the public with such contempt.
(And please keep up your checks and picking them up as, without such investigations we would have no idea about how they mislead us)
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Of course David Cameron is telling lies. Since becoming PM he has repeatedly not told the truth. As you rightly point out ministers have an array of PR etc and that is precisely what is wrong because they spin the facts out of control. There is no way that Cameron will tell the truth about the number of jobs because that would show that economic policy is going disastrously wrong. These elites exist in their ivory tower of Westminster and think that we do not know what is happening, I wonder when they will realise there no secrets now with the internet and online data.
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Good work,Cathy and Emma!
Yes, the blatant lying – I cannot afford them the benefit of the doubt,StuartM – displays an arrogance that would seem to be at the heart of this government. What else allowed Liam Fox to reject advice from several sources concerning his relationship with Werritty?
And so the PM?
To me,it’s clear that the electorate are simply “little people”, mattering not a jot and not worthy of the respect of the truth.
Not only have private sector jobs failed to materialise in the numbers promised by the PM, but a large proportion of them are temporary, fixed contract – 3 or 6months, a year if one’s lucky.
Of course, someone with a puny 3 month contract is no longer a jobless statistic.
It’s pathetic! Cameron et al must think we button up the back.
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Couldn’t agree more- what a level of arrogance.The conservative party always got it wrong from my point of view but it’s the sheer unmitigated arrogance that I can’t stand. What a little s..t the man adn his mate are.
Chris
Worcester
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In addition to the matter of straight forward dishonesty, the principle of the private sector offsetting public sector job losses is also misleading. Why not measure the quality of jobs cut from the public sector (both in the pay and conditions, but also the service they performed to the community) and then find out how those compare to the new jobs that have been created.
I don’t have the facts to hand, but I am willing to wager that the new private sector jobs do not meet the terms and conditions of the jobs lost in the public sector, properly make use of the skills those people had, or go nearly as far to provide a service to the general public.
Tell the person who used to work in a caring profession who now cleans the floors in a burger franchise that the loss of his job has been ‘off set’.
In it together? David Cameron really has no idea at all.
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Whole political system needs changing our politicians are not politicians they are capitalists we need the real democracy real politics real politicians and a new finance system i wont be surprised if a survey results in revealing that 60 % or may be more wealth belongs to these so called politicians and may be same survey or a different one could reveal their contribution towards the system i am sure it could reveal some shocking results.
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It appears apparent that Cameron is not a master of detail, & works as a PM should at the strategic level.
Politicians like to play games & Milliband’s game is to look at details in advance & ask a question he knows Cameron will not have the answer to.
I am more concerned about the, presumably, civil servant who gave Cameron the dodgy numbers.
Yet, the bottom line is, we know the country cannot keep borrowing the money to pay for all Blair/Brown’s state employment workers. We now know that his taxes, that were used to pay for those employees are not there.
We know that councils are/or have let workers go. That should be the increase in unemployment.
One question should be are there private sector losses, what type of jobs are they, and where are they?
Further where in the country are the available jobs & what type are they?
It was the arrogance of Labour that got us where we are…no more boom or bust, dodgy dossiers, MP expenses – jailed MP’s, reliance on Bankers.
Don’t start me on Lord Blair/Robber Baron Brown who looked on their estates, saw the workers, & thanks to the banks, borrowed money to not work the fields, but as house servants.
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I am a Electrical Design Engineer, I was working for my local council with 3 years work in front of me and the work was about to commence when i was told with other short contract staff were given notice to leave. The unions would not allow any contract staff to be working for the council whilst permanent staff were threatened with redundancy, the contract and myself were then given notice to leave. I was appalled with these actions because I came out of work that same day and left all my design drawings on the table, it was a absolute shambles, the council senior managers were more interested in their own redundancy packages, their are thousands of consultants out of work, Cameron is a disgrace to say that the government has created 500,000 new jobs…absolute nonsense..
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The tories always have one policy in their bag – look at the history – UNEMPLOYMENT. WHen I was 17 years old a carpenter pointed this out to me. Now I am 60 and I have experienced what HAPPENS EVERY TIME THEY ARE IN GOVERNMENT.(oops hit that key again – that happens nearly every time I am at a keyboard)
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For an arrogant, privileged and filthy rich Tory PM, what have facts got to do with exercising power?
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I don’t know why he bothers showing up a question time, he doesn’t answer any questions, and continues to tell a load of mistruths, and yet this seems perfectly acceptable to the rest of the commons. It really is turning into a sham.
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Any figures that the Governments put out are either multiplied by 100 or reversed from a negative value to a plus value, then multiplied by 100. They are incapable of actually putting out the correct figures, it is probably because they all suffer from inferiority complexes.
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This is extremely interesting. Lies upon lies, or at the very best exagerations, which is all we have come to expect from this government.
One point however: how are the figures for new jobs worked out, what criteria are used?
Are all new jobs, including part time jobs, included in the figures or are they on a like for like basis?
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Excellent detail. Very impressed by your analysis.
Is it possible to however explain where call-me-Dave got the 500,000 figure from based on the No. 10 comment that it is standard practice to use the nearest set of quarterly statistics to the general election?
Using your figures the Apr’10-Jun’10 quarter would yield a total of 108,000 jobs created. Adding this to the 264,000 jobs in the Jul’10-Jun’11 year the total for 1 year & 3 months comes to 372,000 jobs. Still no-where near 500,000.
Does this mean we are actually getting something worse than ‘just’ a lie? Are we actually getting a Goebbelsesque ‘big lie’?
If anyone can enlighten me I would greatly appreciate it. Maybe Mr DC?
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Q2 2010 (Apr-Jun) yielded an increase in private sector employment of c.311k for ages 16+ according to the ONS, meaning there were 575k more employees in the private sector in Q2 2011 vs. Q1 2010. (Probably close enough to the 500k figure to make incomparable to Nazi propaganda.)
The monthly figures you quote are estimates of total employment (ages 16-64) — i.e., net of decrease in public sector — so you cannot add the 108k to the 264k as they are different measures.
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As much as I admire your factchecking principles, aren’t there three issues that suggest it’s a tad overly critical to come down again on the PM:
1) As the penultimate sentence of ‘The analysis’ section hints and — more crucially — as explained by the PM in a letter to Ed Miliband on 20 September, if the baseline for change is the end of Q1 2010 then private sector employment has increased by c.575k to the end of Q2 2010.
2) The monthly data for May is for total employment for ages 16-64. It is hard to draw any firm conclusions about private sector for ages 16+ without making too many unjustifiable assumptions.
3) We should bare in mind that we are considering the change in an estimate (private employment) that is itself calculated as the difference between 2 figures from different sources (QPSES and LFS). There are undoubted complexities: perhaps the biggest being employees with multiple jobs across the public/private sectors or across public sector bodies.
4) ‘Jobs’ are not the same as ‘employment’: the number of private sector jobs may have increased more than employment.
Ultimately, taking a 2/3rds of Q2 2010 growth gives figure of c.473k – close…
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Are you perchance of the ministirial payrole? You just happen to have access to figures that are calculated using a weird system and then you automatically add figures to make it look better thn it actually is!
How many charity shops have you seen open in your town? How many empty shops are there now? Where are all the manufacturing jobs that are supposedly being created?
In effect,”Where are these jobs that are being created?” I have applied for thousands of so called jobs that are available. They are all being touted around by “Recruitment Agencies”, but I believe that 90% of these so called jobs don’t actually exist. So if we deduct 90% from those figures that you are bandying about then the actual number of jobs that have been created is about 50,000 to the nearest round figure.
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Gary: I was trying to be fair and balanced as possible by sticking to the facts presented in the official ONS figures.
I do have more empathy for your personal situation than you may think as I am also currently unemployed.
If you want to learn more about data on vacancies (which hasn’t been touched upon until now), I suggest you examine ONS’s Vacancy Survey, which asks businesses (not agencies) about how many vacancies they have available. It has sub-national and industrial classification (SIC) breakdowns so you will be able to see where these jobs exist and in which industries.
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Excellent. This is impressive journalism. Could the analysis be taken further? For example, what percentage of the new private sector jobs that have been created are permanent, rather than temporary? What is the equivalent percentage split among the public sector jobs that have been lost? What was the overall amount paid in wages/salaries for the lost public sector jobs and how does this amount compare with the overall remuneration figure for the “replacement” private sector jobs? Are the new private sector jobs being created in the same parts of the country that have suffered most heavily from the public sector job losses?
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If any Prime minister lies they should resign. I don’t want any person who lies to run our government. SIMPLE
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I couldn’t agree more. Not only lying but obfuscation and waffle should be outlawed by the parliamentary rules. They (MP’s) seem to think that any discomfort produced by an accurate question is an affront to their dignity.
It’s not. It’s what they are in parliament for. To look after the interests of the people they purport to represent and not their own self serving interests. Do they not realise that it is irrelevant which one of them lies it diminishes them ALL. Especially King Cameron. The biggest most arrogant millionaire liar of them all. In it together? GARBAGE!!!
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I’ve read all the comments here with interest. In particular, James Doig’s observations in his two contributions to this thread were very informative. Should FactCheck review its conclusions in the light of the details Mr Doig has provided? John McCreanney’s comment also hit home: it was a reminder of the individual human losses that can all too easily be lost sight of among the statistics (important though these figures are).
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(i) Cathy Newman is comparing data for end-June to end-June with Cameron’s claim for early May to mid-October. A valid comparison that is not, to the dark side she has gone.
(ii) 6th May is *not* “bang in the mioddle” of the quarter
(iii) Even if one just takes the year to end-June 264,000 *does* more than offset 240,00 public sector jobs lost
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John77.
If the job losses in the public sector are really taken into account then look at it another way:
The ‘job titles’ may have disappeared, but the ‘job and the ‘jobsworth’ who were doing that ‘job’ are still there and drawing salaries. However, the ‘job’ that they are now doing is called something else. Hence, the large number of ‘job’ losses and the even larger number of ‘jobs created’.
The same cannot be said, alas, for the private sector. For them, a job lost is a position lost and a new figure on the unemployment register.
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John,
Re (i),
It is not possible for Cameron to be making claims about private sector employment “from early May to mid-October” because Q3 2011 stats on the public / private split are not yet available, let alone October – they should be out next month.
Given that Q3 2011 data not yet available, yet we know the losses were mostly part-time jobs – I’m betting that we’ll find out next month that most of these losses were in the private sector.
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@ Charles Jurich
Anyone can make claims about anything. Cathy Newman is claiming that the PM is wrong.
As you say, we do not know whether or not Cameron’s claims are justified, but we *can* know that her so-called analysis is invalid. For a self-styled “factcheck” to confuse June and October should be embarrassing.
@ Gary I don’t know what you are trying to say. The argument is about jobs gained in the private sector, not jobs lost in the private sector.
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Assuming, for the sake of argument, that James Doig and John 77 (who have both commented above) are correct and that David Cameron’s figures are accurate, there is still a concern about the quality of the “replacement” jobs. A quantitative justification for public sector job losses will not console the people who have actually lost those jobs, unless there are equivalent ones for them to go to in the private sector. Low-paid, temporary work, for example, cannot accurately be said to “offset” the loss of a long-term reasonably well-paid job (I acknowledge that other contributors to this thread – Kate, Philip Priestley and Paul – have made a similar point).
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“Lies, damned lies and statistics”
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Good grief, David Cameron is an expert liar as are the whole of his Cabinet. The “first casualty in War”, so we are reliably informed, “is Truth!” Who is attributed with this small, yet deadly epithet is a matter of conjecture, but one thing is sure – the Coalition are ‘at war’ with the Welfare State (soon to be extinct) the NHS (soon to be privatised against the wishes of the entire Nation) and the entire infrastructure of Local Government (soon to be torn down and made impossible to restore.) This Government may not wear the Swastika – but they are perilously close to causing every ‘undeserving’ sod to be compelled to wear some symbol of State Supremacy, so that ‘deserving’ people can presumably spit at and otherwise molest those affected. Between the quiet creation of ghettoes of ‘downsized’ humanity to the legalized form of British slavery (now called Workfare) which pays Benefits for the same amount of workhours as a full time employee earning £17,000 to £21,800 per annum. Meanwhile grubby Politicians in Westminster rub their hands with glee as the Media, Newspapers and Public scream for the blood of their wretched scapegoats.Freedom, Democracy,Equality? Only…
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This post is a prime example of “The first casualty in War is Truth!”
The rant about the coalition being neo-Nazis and the extinction of the Welfare State is (apart from showing signs of insanity) irrelevant to the point under discussion.
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You’re wrong John77. The post you criticise is right on the money. Our conservative led coalition government is laying the groundwork via public sector redundancies for a successful anglo-saxon economic model as seen in the USA. (Free market advisers shadowing ministers surreptitiously tells all) This model sees no worth in national health and welfare and its proponents want rid. Rejecting arguments that raise discordant issue on the grounds that to do so is a sign of insanity is a well rehearsed totalitarian tactic associated with communist dictators as a rule….
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Has “e” actually read the original question?
The debate is about whether Cathy Newman should call Cameron a liar for allegedly misusing statistics based on *her* misuse of statistics? It has NOTHING to do with the Coalition’s policies.
The following is not a defence of Coalition policies because they are not what I am discussing.
Ivan Cameron is a good example of one reason why there should be a NHS – rare diseases are not going to get the necessary research to justify private provision, however rich the sufferer may be, but can be treated by a national service – and Mr Caits claims as if it were a proven fact that Ivan’s father is going to privatise the NHS against the wishes of the whole nation including himself. Yes, that does show signs of insanity. A plan to give more power to local councils is said to be tearing down the whole infrastructure of local government.Ghettoes are small geographic areas in which Jews (or other designated groups) are congregated – what has Workfare got to do with that?
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What everyone seems to have forgotten is that there is such a thing as a summer season in Britain. When all those nice people from around the world come here lots of people get taken on in cafes, bars, tourist offices, ice-cream shops, and then there are the funfairs, the holiday camps, youth hostels, motorway service stations etc. etc. If the govt. are boasting about this then they might as well take credit for the tilt of the earth and the distance between us and the sun…if they haven’t done so already.
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John77
No the government are not boasting about this – they aren’t actually that stupid (I don’t reckon Cameron as a genius but when Wilson was the leader of the Labour Party losts of lefties were saying that he was a genius/near-genius because he got a 1st in PPE like Cameron). It just happens, but Cathy Newman wants us to believe that it doesn’t in order to make an unjustified attack on Cameron.
Charles Jurich points out above that we don’t yet have data for end-September 2011 but Ms Newman is making an attack on the basis that there was NO jobs growth between June and September ….
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In defence of David Cameron, particle physics now indicates that it is possible for a person to be in two places at the same time. Hence, the David Cameron you see pointing in one direction has another pointing in the opposite direction. Following this logic, we can assume that every government minister now has a one-year werritty.
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I rather think it is Johnn77 Who needs to check his sanity. What I have spoken about, I know because my Father served with the Germans during the War. Long ago he told me the signs to look for and how neo-Nazis seldom reveal themselves – except through their ideas about ‘Social Policy’ In any case, the whole notion of this Coalition is about ‘State Supremacy.’ It has no answers at all about the ‘shrinking economy’ but it has a thousand ideas about ‘who to blame!’ And not you, nor anyone of your ilk can justify the horrific attacks which have been made on the unemployed, the disabled and the mentally ill. No one can contradict the absolute fact that Cameron et al have not listened to a single voice protesting against the NHS Reforms – even though thousands of Professionals have made strenuous attempts to explain their objections. No. This Coalition is riding roughshod over everyone in its own hysterical, policy-driven ‘blitzkrieg!’ The Government that makes war upon its own people is ripe for destruction. The Government that only hears its own voice and brooks no obstacle: whether protest or complaint needs must be silenced. “Britain never shall be slaves.”
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So I am insane for saying that a rant about government is irrelevant to a debate about the statistical accuracy or inaccuracy of a number? Presumably all the press and Labour MPs yelling about government U-turns on the NHS are part of a plot?
I did not raise the question of Mr Caits’ sanity? I wonder why he assumed that it was in question?
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“The rant about the coalition being neo-Nazis and the extinction of the Welfare State is (apart from showing signs of insanity) irrelevant to the point under discussion.” These are your words John 77 and, to be honest, I’m not easily bullied into silence. What I have said is totally valid in every respect. Had there been greater understanding of the mechanics of a Fascist Ideology and Propaganda long ago – millions of lives could have been saved. I thought the whole point about debate is that it is an attempt to clarify complex issues and discuss different points of view? Not make spurious attacks because of either your inability to grasp the notion of someone disagreeing with you – or just preferring to try to ‘strong-arm’ those around you. I still firmly believe that Cameron’s deliberate deceit about just how many Public Sector Jobs have been created, goes to the heart of his ethos. Lie, obfuscate, stigmatize and isolate – these are the only forms of modus operandi the Coalition understands. They are at best devoid of social conscience and at worst, they belong in a museum alongside the relics of their Victorian Values and Schadenfreude! Will they recreate the Lodz Ghetto?…
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What you have said is overwhelmingly invalid, but my point was that is utterly irrelevant to the topic and to state as if a fact that “the NHS (soon to be privatised against the wishes of the entire Nation)” implies that you believe some external force controls the Coalition which was elected by a majority of the voters can and is read as showing signs of insanity. I did not say you were insane but that your post showed signs of insanity, which it does. Your follow-ups suggest there is a gap between your perceptions and the reality observed by others, e.g. “the whole notion of this Coalition is about ‘State Supremacy.” – I have yet to meet in the flesh anyone who thinks that the Coalition is composed of a group of communists (although there may be some Americans who think so); or
“how many Public Sector Jobs have been created”? No his quote was about private sector jobs. Others can pick out other examples
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While I’ve got considerable sympathy with some of the views expressed above (although I think that the Conservative party is Nasty, not Nazi), it has rightly been pointed out that this thread is about the accuracy – or otherwise – of Mr Cameron’s statement about jobs, and the interpretation of the statistics on which that statement was based.
As we seem to be getting away from the point, I might as well stray off-topic myself and mention that PhilJoMar’s comment was very funny.
FactCheck has done good work by subjecting the Prime Minister’s statement to scrutiny. But does it have anything to say about the criticisms made of its analysis of the data? Some of these criticisms appear to be cogent.
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