Can the Tories gain 'safe' Labour seats?
The claim
“We are aiming for a majority government, we believe that is do-able, that’s deliverable. That is why we have extended our battleground. That’s why yesterday I was up in the North East talking with candidates who we now think have a real chance because of the complete collapse of the Labour vote.”
David Cameron, Conservative leader, 26 April 2009
Cathy Newman checks it out
This morning’s Daily Telegraph must have had half the cabinet choking on their cornflakes.
The Conservatives say that as support for Gordon Brown has collapsed, they’re now training their fire on seats on 20-odd Labour-held seats, like those occupied by cabinet ministers Ed Balls and John Denham.
It sounds like an ambitious change of tack from a party that’s on the road to power. But when opinion polls appear to be pointing to a hung parliament, that can hardly be the case.
The analysis
Voting intentions is not an exact science, with polls changing more than daily and the winning party depending on which poll (or newspaper) you read.
But some pollsters suspect David Cameron’s trying to gee up his activists, after weeks of speculation the Lib Dems are about to scupper their chances of a government majority.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told Channel 4 News FactCheck the Labour-held seats being targeted by the Tories need a bigger swing than the Conservatives currently appear capable of.
He said: “So far the opinion polls suggest maybe there’s around a five per cent swing to the Conservatives. In these constituencies they need swings in the order of eight, nine, 10 per cent.
“That’s a long way apart and, at the moment at least, the polls don’t suggest that that is a likely possibility.”
To get an overall majority, the Conservatives needed to gain 101 seats from Labour, 13 from the Lib Dems and 2 from the nationalist parties.
But according to the latest opinion polls, the Tories can’t bank on snatching anything from the Lib Dems. In fact, current opinion polls suggest the Lib Dems will gain 8 seats from them, and another 21 from Labour.
So the Tories need to seize 20-odd more Labour seats than they’d anticipated. That’s tougher than taking Lib Dem marginals – because it requires a bigger swing.
Professor Curtice explained: “I think, in truth, that the fact that the Conservatives are now announcing that they are targeting constituencies where the swing required is of the order of eight, nine, even 10 per cent, i.e. well above what we thought they were going to need to get an overall majority is an implicit recognition that they are struggling to win the seats that they need from the Liberal Democrats…
“And therefore if they are going to have any chance to get an overall majority, they have to now win more Labour constituencies, and constituencies that hitherto we thought they would not have to win in order to get an overall majority.”
So how tall an order is it for the party to gain some of those seats listed in the Telegraph and mentioned by Mr Cameron?
Morley & Outwood, which Mr Cameron mentioned this morning as an opportunity and is being contested by Schools Secretary, Ed Balls, is a new constituency for this election because of boundary changes, but that doesn’t make it an easy target.
According to UK Polling Report, it has a notional Labour majority of 24.6 per cent, meaning that there would have to be a massive 12.3 per cent swing to the Tories for them to take the seat. It may be the allure of a high-profile cabinet scalp that attracts the Tories to this particular challenge.
Others, such as Thurrock, may be more manageable, being 125th on the Conservatives’ target list and needing a more modest 6.6 per cent swing (see below for a full list).
But has the Labour vote collapsed? Well, all the polls show it has certainly dipped, but so has the Conservative vote. After the Nick Clegg phenomenon of the first leaders’ debate, Channel 4 News’ Poll of Polls, produced by the Political Forecasting Unit, showed Labour dropping three percentage points and the Conservatives dropping four.
But, even with a small boost in Cameron’s favour from the second leaders’ debate, both parties have continued to suffer relatively evenly from Nick Clegg’s success.
So while the Clegg effect might help the Conservatives in Labour-held seats, it’ll hinder them in their own constituencies.
Cathy Newman’s verdict
Cameron’s claim to be widening his attack by targeting more Labour-held seats looks like spin. But it might cheer up activists, nervous that the power they’ve yearned for after 13 years in the wilderness is once more slipping from their grasp.
There could of course be local variations, and many senior Tories are hopeful of giving Ed Balls a Portillo moment, despite the swing required. But assuming the pollsters have got their figures right, the evidence leaves Cameron’s hopes of a working majority looking rather forlorn.
Target seats: swing required from Labour to Conservative
Thurrock: 6.6 per cent
Southampton Test: 9.3 per cent
Sherwood: 8.2 per cent
Coventry South: 7.9 per cent
Nottingham South: 9.95 per cent
Cannock Chase: 10.3 per cent
Batley & Spen: 7.45 per cent
Chorley: 8 per cent
Stretford & Urmston: 10.5 per cent
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland: 9.2 per cent
Stockton South: 6.6 per cent
Southampton Itchen: 10.45 per cent
Morley & Outwood: 12.3 per cent
There are 5 comments on this post
I’ve founf these factchecks really interesting so far but this one was seriously disappointing. I honestly cannot believe that you are presenting these seats as if the conservatives are aiming for a stright Lab-Con swing. Morley and Outwood for example does NOT require a 12.3% swing from labour to the Tories. It requires part of that, combined with a swing from Labour to the Lib Dems. To consider what will happen in these seats without considering the enormous surge in support for the LDs is pretty ridiculous. Your conclusion may well be right, I have no idea, but without even examining the effect that increasing polling scores for the Liberal Democrats will have you cannot claim that this examination has any credibility whatsoever. I expected of you.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
Cathy, much as I enjoy FactCheck, the prediction of an election result is not a fact and, therefore, cannot be checked. By straying into this territory, you rather undermine the authority you have built up with genuine fact checking elsewhere. Your “verdict” is wooliness itself. If you want to mantain your credibility, I suggest you stick to the facts!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
As they say a week is a long time in politics and there are 9 days to go . The Labour support is clearly falling .People really do dislike Brown so yes i believe the Tories will get their majority
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
What exactly was the point of this exercise? I can’t see the point fact-checking election results before the polls have even opened.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
After the last TV debate, YouGov asked: “How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election”. The responses: Lib Dem 49%, Conservative 25%, Labour 19%. If this actually happened there would be 548 Lib Dem MPs, 41 Labour MPs and just 25 Tories.
The message here seems to be, vote for what you really want to happen, and it will.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0