Brown's migration muddle?
The claim
“Some people talk as if net inward migration is rising. In fact, it is falling – down from 237,000 in 2007, to 163,000 in 2008, to provisional figures of 147,000 last year.”
Gordon Brown, podcast on immigration, 26 March, 2010
Cathy Newman checks it out
As you’d expect from a former chancellor, Gordon Brown is very fond of using figures to get his political arguments across. But as we found out just over a week ago he’s developed an alarming tendency to get his figures wrong.
So when he used a Downing Street podcast to make claims about immigration numbers, it was time to call in the team.
The analysis
Brown said in a podcast today that net inward migration (the number of people coming to the UK minus the number of people leaving) had fallen. According to the PM, the figures fell from 237,000 in 2007 to 163,000 in 2008 to 147,000 last year.
But he was drawing his numbers from two different sets of statistics.
The first two figures are the confirmed long-term international migration figures for 2007 and 2008 (although incidentally, he appears to have slipped with the first number – the published National Statistics figure is actually 233,000). We don’t yet have a comparable figure for 2009.
So Brown instead took a figure from the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This is used to compile the long-term international migration figures – but it tends to be smaller because it excludes asylum seekers and people who overstay their original visas.
If the prime minister wanted to be accurate he should have compared the 2009 IPS figure to the 2007/8 IPS figures. They are 219,000 (year ended Dec 2007), 129,000 (year ended Dec 2008), 147,000 (year ended June 2009).
The sharp-eyed amongst you will see that there’s another reason to be cautious. The 2009 figure he quotes relates to the year up to June 2009. The 2007 and 2008 figures are for the year ending December.
It’s bad statistical practice to mix up time periods in this way because you leave yourself open to seasonal fluctuations in behaviour.
Stats watchdog the UK Statistics Authority is now looking at the figures, but could not comment on whether it would investigate further at time of writing.
A Downing Street spokesman said: “The immigration figures mentioned are published ONS figures. The prime minister was clear that the 147,000 figure was provisional.”
Cathy Newman’s verdict
Gordon Brown has done it again. The statistics he used for 2009 are an under-estimate, because they don’t include all migrants. The figures he used for 2007 and 2008, however, do.
So he’s misled the public by comparing the most flattering data for the latest year with the most unflattering data in the previous years.
The full year figures for 2009 aren’t yet available, so until we see them, we won’t know for certain if the prime minister’s claim that immigration is falling is true or not.
But he doesn’t have the figures to make that claim either. And in the meantime, the statistics we do have so far show that after falling in 2008, immigration is on the way up in 2009.
There are 19 comments on this post
Please – just shut that door!
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Another well known shortcoming of the IPS is that it fails to capture migration through the “minor” airports used by the cut price airlines. This particularly underestimates the flows of East Europeans (in both directions).
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Well.. when we find somewhere suitable to go, we will migrate.The trouble is I’m too old to have 10 kids and expand the new population.
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So we have liers, damm liers and ex chancellors !
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You can allways tell when Brown is lying, his lips move!
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Just “thanks”!
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Cathy a channel 4 journalist who tells it as it is , and without using the word lies , shows how Gordon Brown twists statistics to help his cause . The man can not help hisself and yet is so easily shown to be misleading the public .Not only should he lose the election , he should lose his own seat .It is time we got rid of dishonest politicians once and for all
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Well done Alistair, you are the only one who was making sense. Vince was like a proper cowboy a sure no go area!
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thamesmud is wrong: there is a category worse than liars, damned liars and Chancellors: PROSPECTIVE CHANCELLORS!
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When I emigrated, I didn’t inform anyone. I didn’t tell the govt. I just went. I’m sure I don’t show up in any statistics. How reliable are these figures?
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I think your giving the PM to much benefit of the doubt he knew he did it last time and he went and did the exactly the same thing again.
This man is known for twisting statisics,hes been doing for years.
this is the labour way of doing thingsput out a lie not everybody will catch on thats a lie but enough will see and read it to believe it.
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A couple of things.
1. The stats *did* drop from 07 to 08. Fact. Whether or not they dropped a little bit more or rose a little bit more to 09 is too early to tell, but the important part is that from 07 to 09 they’ve dropped overall.
2. Some of you assume that *any* other party are going to be different and tell us all wonderful truths.
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Well done Cathy!
Keep up the good work!
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…and the BBC just reported what he said as fact without mentioning that it’s even been questioned.
He lies, the report the lies, the Conservatives base their response pretending that it’s not a lie.
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Hang on… I accept the use of the IPS figures for 2009 are not comparable, and that’s bad pracitce, but: what figures do you have for 2009? Otherwise, it looks like you’re blaming Brown on the one hand for misusing data; and then misusing data yourself? If there were a link this would be useful
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The ONS source is on page 8 of this pdf.
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Surprise, surprise. A member of the Labour party caught telling lies again.
You can’t trust anything Labour says on immigration.
Their hard won reputation as the Liebour party of lies remains intact.
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Brilliant work Cathy and C4. The BBC are asleep at the wheel and broadcasting propaganda as fact but you are dissecting the information and delivering the facts. True journalism. Well done.
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Good work!! I wish Channel 4 would do more investigation into the yawning gap between the public and the political class on the issue of immigration/population. This is a gap which I have often felt also existed between the public and editors of broadcast media.
This does become problematic in the case of an election where immigration policy is an issue however. If editors decide not to cover immigration as a story, as is normal, then the public is not served, so please lets have more indepth coverage of Labours record in office.
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