May 5 is a big day for British democracy, with voters choosing the Scottish parliament, the national assemblies of Wales and Northern Ireland, four mayors including London, the London Assembly, Police and Crime Commissioners and thousands of English council seats.
The elections will be seen as a big test for all the main parties – and for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in particular – a year after the last general election.
If current polling is to be believed, the Conservatives are on course to embarrass Labour in the English council elections, Ukip could bag their first Welsh Assembly seats, and Labour’s Sadiq Khan will be the next Mayor of London.
These results may well be interpreted as a no-confidence vote in Jeremy Corbyn in England, a surge of support for Ukip in Wales, and a massive comeback for Labour in the capital. But none of these things is necessarily true.
Polling expert Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has predicted that Labour could lose hundreds of English council seats.
Labour are behind the Conservatives in eight out of the last 10 major national voter intention polls. (more…)