2012: A year of lying shamelessly
It’s been a busy year for FactChecking, with damned lies and statistics coming thick and fast from across the political spectrum.
These were the lowlights of 2012.
The first big Thick of It-style moment came in January with the announcement that the London-to-Birmingham section High Speed 2 rail network would finally go ahead.
HS2 will cost the taxpayer £32.7bn, the then Transport Secretary Justine Greening insisted.
But the Department for Transport published a document on the same day saying the real cost would be £3.7bn more: £36.4bn, or more than would be recouped in 60 years of ticket sales.
No one in government could offer an explanation of why there was a difference and which estimate was the true one.
Still, what’s £3.7bn between friends? Enough for about 100,000 extra nurses, it turned out.
The looming Olympics threw up more dodgy numbers, with the Prime Minister insisting that the London Games would bring in £13bn – conveniently more than the £8.5bn cost of staging the event.
We loved watching the Olympics, but weren’t convinced by any of the economic forecasts. If anyone can ever prove beyond doubt that the final benefits have outweighed the costs, we’ll do a lap of Eton Dorney in a Team Australia shirt.
We were forced to disagree (respectfully – he’s got bigger muscles than us) with Paralympic sprinter Oscar Pistorius when he suggested that his opponents were using excessively long prosthetic limbs to gain an unfair advantage.
But we were very happy to get one fact wrong. The total gold medal tally for Team GB was 65, not 62, as we predicted after reviewing all the forecasting techniques.
The showdown between Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson kept us busy in the spring. The union-backed Sack Boris campaign spent thousands on some clever railcard wallet-themed election material, which claimed that public transport in the capital had suffered under the Tory mayor.
Not true, we found. We stuck to that view despite howls of protest from the Livingstone camp, and also raised doubts about Ken Livingstone’s ability to deliver on his promise to cut fares.
The wallets with the dodgy claims immediately disappeared from the streets, and Boris was returned to office.
But it wasn’t all one-way traffic. We poured cold water over Boris’s claims to have boosted the numbers of policement in the capital.
The mayor promised us that officer numbers would remain constant in his second term, but he has failed to keep his word.
Nationally, police numbers were being cut too, but the government moved heaven and earth to avoid saying that.
Was it only really a 6 per cent cut, as Theresa May suggested? Were police forces really managing to handle the cuts without cutting frontline staff? Was it true, as David Cameron said, that the numbers of neighbourhood officers has soared?
No, no, and no.
We had our doubts from the start about the Work Programme – the Government’s Big Idea about how to get people off benefits and back to work.
Back in July, we first raised the question of whether the scheme was actually on course to do more harm than good.
Our misgivings deepened in October when leaked figures suggested that A4E, one of the companies commissioned by the government, were failing to hit their minimum targets. This provoked an angry response from A4E’s founder and former chairman Emma Harrison, who said our numbers were wrong and misleading.
Unfortunately for everyone, they weren’t. The first official figures out last month showed that every private sector provider had failed to hit the minimum targets specified by the government.
Nevertheless, the government could claim to have kept one of its key promises on employment - to create jobs in the private sector that would make up for public sector cuts.
In October Mr Cameron said new private sector jobs since the election had hit the one million mark.
Well…all right. But only if you start counting before the actual date of the election, and only if you include nearly 200,000 further education workers who were suddenly counted as private sector.
The PM also said a quarter of a million more women were in work than at the time of the election. But he was 60,000 out, and failed to mention the fact that female unemployment was going up too.
This week the UK Statistics Authority wrote to ministers asking them to stop saying that the NHS budget has gone up in real terms in the last years.
We first pointed out the weakness of this oft-repeated coalition claim in July.
The coalition gave the health service the tiniest budget increase imaginable, one that would instantly turn into a cut if inflation was higher than expected.
This summer, the actual spend on health was revealed to have fallen from £104.353bn to £104.333bn. Some mind-bending government spin ensued, but it was clear this was a broken promise.
We also revealed that the Department of Health actually spent about £1bn less than it could have, choosing to give the money back to the Treasury rather than spend it on patients.
Another broken health promise we nailed was Mr Cameron’s pre-election pledge to increase the number of midwives by 3,000. They have failed to materialise.
The then Employment Minister Chris Grayling, whose name will be familiar to regular readers, raised the issue of “benefit tourism” at the beginning of the year.
Were increasing numbers of immigrants coming to these shores with a view to enjoying an easy life on benefits. Errr…no. We found that the claimant rate among overseas nationals has fallen by two thirds in a decade, despite the economic downturn.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage took a similar line when he warned about how easy it is for Eastern European migrants to get a council house in Britain.
The truth is that it’s not easy and only 1 per cent of people from the A8 nations, which include Poland and the Baltic States, were living in social housing the last time anyone checked.
It doesn’t help when the former immigration minister, Damian Green, makes claims suggesting it’s possible “to come from anywhere in the world and on day one of arriving in Britain, live off benefits.”
When we asked the Department for Work and Pensions whether it’s possible to do this, we were told by a spokesman: “Anyone outside the EU or European Economic Area can not arrive in the UK and claim benefits from day one.”
These are just a couple of numerous dodgy claims about immigration that emerged throughout the year. Also looking decidely dodgy is the government’s stated aim of reducing net migration to the tens rather than hundreds of thousands by the end of this parliament.
For the record, net migration has fallen, but only to 183,000 on the latest figures, and largely because of a big drop in foreign students, something which could harm the economy.
If you fancy a tipple this Christmas, don’t feel too guilty about it.
Despite much ministerial hand-wringing over binge-drinking, we found that the average adult is drinking less than they used to, and below the recommended limits.
In fact, alcohol consumption is at its lowest since 1999. Binge drinking is down across all age groups and has fallen particularly sharply among 16-24-year-olds.
Cheers!




There are 20 comments on this post
Interesting to read a report card on another country. Unfortunately the dodgy wheeling and dealing also affects my country. Here’s looking to beyond 2014 when your future report cards lament the fact you had been broadcasting to individual nations but like all broadcast media choose to treat it as England.
Oops didn’t see that coming.
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Like UKIP supporters who want to pull out of the EU and Nottingham Forest fans who wanted Sean O’Driscoll out & a new manager installed, be careful what you wish for – you may get what you wanted & get an unpleasant surprise.
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This is rigorous unbiased journalism that does affect the country you live in, Bee – Britain. It’s perhaps understandable that an inward-looking, separatist point of view would see any news service, even C4, in terms of England v rest of UK, but the reality doesn’t match up. ITN is full of highly professional Scots journalists, for a start.
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Cathy,
A big thank you to everyone who contributed to the Fact Check team. There is nothing in TV News to compare with it.
Long may you continue to expose liars and charlatans, including those employed in the media.
Please keep it up until you annoy the propagandists so much they feel obliged to tap you on the shoulder to have a word. If that happens, may I suggest you tell them to go away and copulate…..it’s the only thing they understand, you know.
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Politicians have always distorted statistics to make a point. They also have a habit of repeating the same message over and over again. This is not the same as repeating lies to support policies which put profit before people in both Health and Education.
A free press is not about phone hacking and paparazzi. It is about Journalists like those at Fact Check, exercising their freedom to challenge those who claim to present facts to the public.
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A towering achievement in journalism, keep it going — it really is appreciated. I just wish the same standards of scrutiny and rigour were applied by the ‘British’ press.
Imagine if the same standards were applied in the Sun, Telegraph, Times?
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Yes, despite hating the idea of Johnson being mayor I do not think public transport has got any worse. Except for the cost of using it. How does our public transport compare with other developed countries? My experience is that it is considerably more expensive. And Johnson put prices up by way over inflation – 20 per cent increases on bus fares? That’s an assault on working people and should be resisted. The question is: Does the quality of public transport reflect the massive increase in fares? And I don’t think it does.
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“numbers of policement in the capital” nice fact check but how about a spell-check?
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Good to find a source of some “proper” journalism, based on research and not comment. A great example to those in the tabloids bleating about regulation who don’t deserve the title. Well, if they’re going to behave like children…
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Thanks for all your work on Fact Check – so valuable!
Re the “Thick of It” high speed rail moment: I think the Transport Secretary forgot that some shiny new trains would be needed as well as a new track. The £32 billion figure excluded trains…. Oops!
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Well done, Cathy, for highlighting one of HS2′s dodgy figures on the list of top lies. There’s strong evidence that lots of dodgy figures (aka lies) have been used to justify the HS2 project as a whole – absolutely “shocking” as Margaret Hodge stated in the Public Accounts Committee a few months ago. Hopefully the result of the Judicial Reviews next month will bring these to the public’s attention. The very least that should happen ought to be a public inquiry into this extraordinary waste of £38bn of taxpayers’ money.
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You are an inspiration to us all, Cathy. Too many of your fellow journalists ingratiate themselves with people of influence – to have a person such as yourself with obvious integrity and honesty is both refreshing and very unusual.
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I’d prefer it if Fact Check checked claims, linked to the available data/evidence where possible and delivered the verdict without resorting to judgemental comments. Let me decide how to react!
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Thanks for the Fact-Check in 2012, guys! Here’s to more of it in 2013, cheers!
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One wonders with horror, just what politicians have been spinning over the past decades and getting away with it, without ever being challenged or scrutinised. Praise indeed Cathy, never weaken.
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It also makes you wonder what the point of Parliament is if it is failing, as it is clearly it is, to scrutinise, properly. spurious claims made by ministers and others, and hold them to account. This is the proper constitutional role of Parliament – but it ain’t doing it. Sack the lot of them and Vote Fact Check!
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Your comments regarding the lies being told in support of HS2 are well founded, but still overlook another “fact”. The forecast cost, be it £32bn or £38bn, is unsustainable. From a lifetime in the construction industry I can assure you that HS2 Ltd and DfT cannot predict the cost with any degree of certainty. The first cost estimates that I saw quoted a high to low range of just 10%. This means that they wish us to believe that they know the cost to within an accuracy of +/-5%. As HS2 Ltd. has not yet carried out detailed surveys, either above or below ground, to provide the data required to complete the engineering of the proposed route, it simply is not possible to estimate with the claimed accuracy. I put this point to Alison Munroe (CEO of HS2 Ltd.) at one of their “Road Shows” last year. From her expression and body language I could tell she knew I was right, but she loyally gave me the party line – which did nothing to allay my doubts. The estimate they have is based on historical data (which by definition is out of date by the time it has been collated) which is then factored for this, that and the other variable. There are other reasons too why this estimate is a…
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How about Boris’ promise to allow motorcyclists to use bus lanes? All TFL trials showed a drop in fatalities/serious injury with cyclists, motorcyclists no increase with pedestrians, although Livingston tried to hide these facts, Boris promised to act on them. Here we are years later, nothing done and how many people would be alive today if they had done what was right, not what was popular? Power is all they want, and when they have it, all they want to do is keep it. Running the country comes a distant 2nd.
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Big thank you to all the FactCheck team for providing this incredibly well researched and unbiased (as far as I can tell) fact checking service to help inform the confused public while the politicians keep spouting out absolute nonsense!
I was just lamenting this morning about how the US seems to have some excellent fact checking groups and how the UK doesn’t. Shame on you BBC! Then I found out about this blog and am eternally grateful for your work. I will spread word of this around and I hope more journalists follow your lead!
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