Does civil war loom after Afghanistan elections?
This, you understand, is just the past few days. They rocketed the international airport in Kabul, hitting the military side and destroying at least one helicopter. They set fire to scores of fuel trucks bound for Nato supply lines around the capital.
They put a suicide bomber into an area where there was a Nato convoy and killed at least 10 civilians and four more Nato – in this case they were Czech.
Just some sample attacks from across Afghanistan from the past few days. It goes on all the time and the western media pretty much ignore it all, which is startling since our young men and women have given so much blood in the past 12 years trying – and failing – to stop it all.
The politicians do not appear to care or want to talk about it. They got those young men and women into it all and spilled their blood in an act of terrible futility spanning several British governments now.
Worse still, the failure is on two fronts now. We were supposed to leave Afghanistan with some kind of credible military forces to stop all this from happening. That does not look very credible and still less so with every day that passes.
That credible military force was supposed to be controlled by some kind of credible political machine backed by popular vote.
Instead – just this this weekend – one of the two would-be presidents, Dr Abdullah Abdullah (pictured here), swears he will ignore the election result giving victory to his rival Ashraf Ghani.
Today his men were out and about tearing down posters of their political rival at a rally in the capital. The impasse tonight looks deep and serious.
Dr Abdullah – former Northern Alliance mujahedeen fighter – simply isn’t having this. He believes he was defrauded out of the presidency last time around. When I last met him both he and his rival looked exhausted men touring the country in search of votes over gruelling months of campaigning.
This is serious stuff. Abdullah’s supporters have already been out blocking roads in protest on the capital’s streets. There has been shooting.
Underlying it all the ethnic tectonics of Afghan society – Dr Abdullah commanding the Tajik vote, Ashraf Ghani the Pashtuns and the northern Uzbeks, by virtue of his one-time warlord running mate Rashid Dostum.
Already election officials are warning all this could lead to intensified civil war and at least 20,000 will be on the streets to protest after prayers this coming Friday.
Politically, militarily, it has rarely looked more bleak for Nato.
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